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zyaadakairaada

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Community Rank: Associate (1373 pts) | Member since 09/30/2008

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All-time Return +2.69% (in 1 year)	Risk (SD) Conservative 0.00%	Sharpe Ratio -5.39
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October 20

Apple Results start a strong retail week

zyaadakairaada 10/20/09

This pick is about: Apple Computer Inc (AAPL)

Rating:	$189.86 (10/20/09)
Gain/Loss:	+3.49% in 47 days
Target:	$360.00 (+89.61%) in Six months
Allocation:	5.9% of portfolio

14 pts

The Advantage zyaada analysis follows later Here is the result and comparisons from Marketwatch.com Apple Inc. on Monday reported a 46% increase in its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings as the company posted higher revenue than a year ago led by better-than-expected sales of iPhones, Mac computers and iPods. Apple (AAPL 202.40, +12.54, +6.61%) said it earned $1.67 billion, or $1.82 a share, on revenue of $9.87 billion. During the same period a year ago, Apple earned $1.14 billion, or $1.26 a share, on $7.9 billion in sales. Apple's results topped the estimates of analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters, who had forecast the company to earn $1.42 a share on revenue of $9.2 billion. The initial reaction to Apple's report was strong enough to send the company's shares up more than $12, or as much as 6.5%, in after-hours trading to $202.20 after earlier rising $1.81 a share in the regular market session. The company sold 7.4 million iPhones during the quarter ended Sept. 26. It was the first full quarter of sales for the iPhone 3GS, Apple's latest version of its touchscreen smartphone that starts at $199. Analysts were expecting iPhone sales of 7 million, on average. Apple also said it sold more than 3 million Macs during the quarter, thanks in part to the back-to-school selling season. Mac shipments increased by 17% from the same period a year ago. Analysts had been expecting Mac sales of 2.8 million. During the quarter, Apple released Snow Leopard, the latest upgrade to its Mac operating system. With the revenue recognition norms giving it an additional fillip on the balance sheet by Q1 2010 when more of the iPhone sales recovered from customer will reflect immediately and increase EPS, Apple has the right denoument to a hectic decade and a brilliant last 5 years since the launch of the iPod. With iPhone 3G an unqualified success at an affordable price point, it may even be the trailblazer for the telcos that have spent the revolution since the 90s largely deep in the red. Tech platforms seem to have stabilized for a successful cohabitation across the planet using iphones + portable music plus Kindle plus the Web 2.0 meaning that lifestyle customers are no longer being penalised with features that are outdated in just three months and uncompetitive pricing and packaging that brought AOL and Netscape down (and perhaps even Sony) The only clouds for Apple being Windows 7.0 which is as comfy as the Snow Leopard and the apple users remain people who look for discontinuous change when they switch! The only answer to that probably would be for Apple to get more vocal sponsors in the coming Crowdsourcing for retail lifestyle..

Update 10/20:

Apples keep bad pennies away

With the revenue recognition norms giving it an additional fillip on the balance sheet by Q1 2010 when more of the iPhone sales recovered from customer will reflect immediately and increase EPS, Apple has the right denoument to a hectic decade and a brilliant last 5 years since the launch of the iPod. With iPhone 3G an unqualified success at an affordable price point, it may even be the trailblazer for the telcos that have spent the revolution since the 90s largely deep in the red. Tech platforms seem to have stabilized for a successful cohabitation across the planet using iphones + portable music plus Kindle plus the Web 2.0 meaning that lifestyle customers are no longer being penalised with features that are outdated in just three months and uncompetitive pricing and packaging that brought AOL and Netscape down (and perhaps even Sony) The only clouds for Apple being Windows 7.0 which is as comfy as the Snow Leopard and the apple users remain people who look for discontinuous change when they switch! The only answer to that probably would be for Apple to get more vocal sponsors in the coming Crowdsourcing for retail lifestyle..

... Continue reading »

Related posts: Bullish on AAPL ... and Bullish on AAPL ...

October 14

Time to correct

zyaadakairaada 10/14/09

This pick is about: FXE 2008 Sep 20 148.00 Put (FXEUR)

Rating:	$0.0 (10/14/09)
Gain/Loss:	n/a in 53 days

1 pt

Eur will be in correction in the current series till 145 maybe ( OCT 2009)

... Continue reading »

August 06

Glum open, but Financials up and away?

zyaadakairaada 08/06/09

This pick is about: Select Sector SPDRFinancial (XLF)

Rating:	$13.97 (08/06/09)
Gain/Loss:	+2.79% in 122 days
Allocation:	3.1% of portfolio

9 pts

Shares of U.S. financial stocks early Thursday as a continued rally in American International Group and new buy ratings on Dow components American Express and J.P. Morgan Chase had buyers throwing money at the sector.

The Financial Select Sector SPDR /quotes/comstock/13*!xlf /quotes/nls/xlf ( XLF 14.07 , -0.01 , -0.07% ) , which tracks the financial stocks in the S&P 500, added about 1%.

Shares of American International Group /quotes/comstock/13*!aig /quotes/nls/aig ( AIG 24.74 , +2.74 , +12.46% ) continued to rally on Thursday, rising almost 30%. That move follows a more than 60% jump during the previous session for the insurer which is almost 80% owned by the U.S. taxpayer.

Some analysts on Wednesday attributed the gains to investors scrambling to cover short sales after the firm set a 20-for-one reverse stock split earlier this year.

Other analysts suggested that recent better-than-expected second-quarter results from other insurers bode well for AIG, which will report earnings tomorrow.

Shares of American Express and J.P. Morgan received new buy ratings, and they moved higher.

Analysts at Citigroup upgraded American Express /quotes/comstock/13*!axp /quotes/nls/axp ( AXP 31.60 , +1.24 , +4.08% ) to buy from hold.

"We are upgrading the shares as we are now more comfortable that credit has stabilized at AXP. Implicit in this call is an incrementally more positive view on financial stocks," the analysts said.

Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank initiated coverage of J.P. Morgan Chase /quotes/comstock/13*!jpm /quotes/nls/jpm ( JPM 41.19 , -0.59 , -1.41% ) with a buy rating.

THOUGH the market seems set to get intoo a bear hug/correction/downtrend from here as the premise is that Governments will continue to print money

... Continue reading »

May 26

The stock is closed and sold to $WFC NOT $C

zyaadakairaada 05/26/09

This pick is about: Wachovia Corp (WB)

Rating:	$0.0 (05/26/09)
Gain/Loss:	n/a in 194 days

1 pt

The stock is closed and sold to $WFC NOT $C

... Continue reading »

May 19

Chk the charts at stocktwits.com, chart fx and get in now!

zyaadakairaada 05/19/09

This pick is about: CurrencyShares Euro Trust Euro Currency (FXE)

Rating:	$136.06351 (05/19/09)
Gain/Loss:	+10.63% in 201 days
Target:	$145.00 (+6.57%)

7 pts

The Euro has been an important trading currency since 1999 launch. The Dollar denominated debt coming under fire - $3 trillion wiped off and another $4 t to come from household debt (?) DB and RBS and ING compare well with US banks esp with the stress test criteria and market attitudes both getting more positive market vibes. However, most of the world had not moved alt currency from the USD to EUR last we heard. The same may still not be the final solution as CHN chooses $GLD but it will be an umportant part for the international world with the USD shaky for another 2 years. Also, gunning for $EUR is the fact that ( probably naively) most of the CDOs and the monolines have exposure to the USD than to the EUR and the cash economy of Euro-nation is firmly in EUR and payment systems seem to have begun homogenizing in earnest. It is free floating, dealt by large proprietary desks and it can take the volume of global trade. The currency uptick and trends may still be called at more frequent stops by others with the comfort of no Glas-Steagall, but for the investor looking for an hedge, the time to move is now. Did you notice a certain acceleration in trends nowadayz??? The analuyst is a Senior Exec and writes his wn blogs in and around http://advantages.us, as zyakaira on new media and some mashups as zyaada..i'm sure you get the spread :) Some media analysts are pointing to a immdt lull and a target at 137 but I wd be much more bullish

... Continue reading »

March 23

IBM is ON

zyaadakairaada 03/23/09

This pick is about: International Business Machines Corp (IBM)

Rating:	$95.66 (03/23/09)
Gain/Loss:	+33.34% in 258 days

7 pts

The market already knows that the financials of IBM will take a hit after the acquisition of SUN But the acquisition would be good for IBM as they grab hold of the shrinking enterprise hardware market! no one buys big servers anymore...IBM will have a better chance at the next innovation curve to save its floundering systems business and get back in the market In other news: So Africa is a new outsourcing destination, gives good hope to internationally poor locations with criminal history and other believers in sinking megaliths like IBM and outsourcing!

... Continue reading »

Related posts: Bullish on IBM ...

ING BAC C GS HBC Who says the bottom slipped from under us.

zyaadakairaada 03/23/09

This pick is about: ING GROEP N.V. (ING)

Rating:	$6.8075 (03/23/09)
Gain/Loss:	+38.38% in 258 days
Target:	$15.00 (+120.35%)

7 pts

Just jumped hoops with BofA on the Monday open as the market found itself eager and rumbling on. Why is it unlikely to sustain its run? because we have seen numerous instances in 1929, 1930, 1931 and 1932. Why is it likely to be better this time? one good excuse is that this particular investment has a more global base and is not us centric. the disadvantage is that the market is talking about its total exit from the US another good excuse is that their risk management usually ensures that LTCM's and other geniuses full of poker (minding the pun, but the hurry to summarise is overkill) are not part of the firm's investments ( not just off balance sheet) and have a finite relationship to the capital held. The same advantage today holds for BofA as they publicise their change of heart!!! the disadvantage is that they are global but not really big THE BIG RESULT: There is nothing to say that the market will ever improve, but like all good things, this market holiday must also come to an end ( i usually do more serious pieces, but this is in the middle of today;s market sessions and Obama might still find a facial flaw next week that might erase the hobnobbing) And the market will invest in good long term stocks not small and medium term full scale single line of business flaws called american banks...and that just leaves a select few that can bid with Goldman Sach's for the next rich portfolio and/or like Wells Fargo fund hollywood titans family accounts. And remember you can but only lose a 100% of the investment, whether they buy you a derivative or any other exotic...your gains are unlimited, it helps therefore to not think percentages all the time and think value in cash and hard dollars.

... Continue reading »

March 19

ORCL IBM SAP Oracle is still around

zyaadakairaada 03/19/09

This pick is about: Oracle Corp (ORCL)

Rating:	$17.56 (03/19/09)
Gain/Loss:	+28.93% in 262 days

7 pts

The company said its fiscal third-quarter net income fell slightly to $1.33 billion, or 26 cents a share, from $1.34 billion, or 26 cents a share, a year earlier. Excluding special items, earnings would've been 35 cents a share. Revenue for the period rose 2% to $5.45 billion.

Not bad for lean season. DHS hasn't put any heavy weight in costs either but we'lll have to watch out for that again

... Continue reading »

March 18

zyaadakairaada 03/18/09

This pick is about: 1/100 Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJX)

Rating:	$0.0 (03/18/09)
Gain/Loss:	n/a in 263 days

0 pt

... Continue reading »

Did they tell you Amex was a bank?

zyaadakairaada 03/18/09

This pick is about: American Express Company (AXP)

Rating:	$12.83 (03/18/09)
Gain/Loss:	+202.96% in 263 days

7 pts

Credit Card Defaults are nearly double of what they were six months ago but Amex is more into travel related services esp as far as the US is concerned. high time it's last 12 months performance were obviated and a fresh start considered. a small bump then to figure out what 2009 holds for it, may not be too good but this is bad enough!

Amex recession proofing strategies for their customers delivered $2 billion in savings to its corporate customers and with its integrated relationship with IBM likely to deliver more such profits for its customers and itself. Also a very healthy EPS at $2.50

marketwatch.com:

New business acquired reached $3.4 billion and global customer wins increased 172 percent compared to 2007, with a global retention rate of 98 percent(1). The North America Middle-Market client segment experienced a 63 percent year-over-year growth increase, while Advisory Services achieved a 33 percent annual growth rate, globally, in consultative sales. In 2008, American Express reported $25.4 billion in travel sales.

... Continue reading »

Related posts: Bullish on AXP ...

March 11

$19 bi in two months! That's pretty good.

zyaadakairaada 03/11/09

This pick is about: Citigroup Inc (C)

Rating:	$1.48 (03/11/09)
Gain/Loss:	+173.65% in 270 days
Allocation:	18.9% of portfolio

7 pts

what exact business is doing this turnover? but details aside, the letter did the trick for the market as citi leads the romp back Financial firms typically occupy a third of the office space in New York City's commercial and cultural center of Manhattan, according to real estate services firm Colliers International. Because the city's Independent Budget Office says such firms might lose 82,300 jobs between 2008 and 2011, office landlords must work hard to keep the tenants they have by offering inducements like reduced rent...

... Continue reading »

February 21

BAC Lewis gets BofA another new solution

zyaadakairaada 02/21/09

This pick is about: Bank of America Corp (BAC)

Rating:	$4.3 (02/21/09)
Gain/Loss:	+266.51% in 288 days
Allocation:	32.4% of portfolio

7 pts

B of A, which paid more for Merrill than the bank's current entire market capitalization, is now more attracted to wealth management, Merrill's other large business, which is less capital intensive than investment banking because it does not involve lending to finance deals and companies. Lewis' new found interest in investment banking surprised some who remembered his famous statement in October 2007 that he had had "all the fun I can stand in investment banking." And as Bank of America looks to recover after reporting its first quarterly loss in 17 years and taking a total of $45 billion in government funds since October, the investment bank may be an easy target for cost-cutting. The company said in December it plans to cut up to 35,000 jobs -- or as much as 11.4 percent of its employees, including former Merrill staff -- over three years. The investment bank is expected to see many of the cuts as business there is slowing, analysts said. "They're making some fairly extensive cuts and in addition you would expect other businesses would bounce back quite a bit," said Peters. Over the long term, she expects investment banking to contribute just 10 percent to 15 percent of the bank's revenues. That is less than half the 32 percent Bank of America had estimated in a September presentation to investors, which was based on figures from the first half of 2008.

... Continue reading »

January 17

Motivated research from MS

zyaadakairaada 01/17/09

This pick is about: HSBC Holdings plc (HBC)

Rating:	$41.33 (01/17/09)
Gain/Loss:	+44.98% in 323 days

7 pts

Morgan Stanley research suggesting the U.K. bank should raise up to $40 billion may be alarmist. But having weathered the first stage of the crisis thanks to low leverage, diversified assets and strong liquidity, HSBC will be hit hard as the global downturn gathers pace. Morgan Stanley argues HSBC's capital position is weaker than it seems. Leverage looks reasonable at 28 times tangible assets, in line with J.P. Morgan Chase, while the Tier 1 capital ratio, an indicator of financial strength, is a solid 8.6%. But HSBC has significant exposure to toxic assets, including U.S. subprime mortgages that aren't marked to market, either because they are held directly on its loan book or because the U.K. regulator allows unrealized losses on certain assets to be written back for capital purposes. Morgan Stanley estimates HSBC's true leverage is closer to 50 times and Tier 1 is 4.6%, making it one of the most highly leveraged banks in the world. Associated Press This isn't entirely fair. Morgan Stanley notes that HSBC's U.S. consumer-lending exposure would need a $34 billion write-down to reflect market prices. But no bank marks its loan book to market. Meanwhile, its direct loans should prove higher quality than those in securitizations, and rock-bottom market prices partly reflect illiquidity. More fundamentally, Morgan Stanley's case is built partly on second-guessing what arbitrary capital-ratio targets regulators will demand. But a bank like HSBC with a loan-to-deposit ratio of just 88%, and a diversified asset base, can operate off lower capital levels than less-liquid rivals. Insisting on surplus capital well above that needed to absorb a pessimistic case for losses simply makes the bank less profitable. That said, HSBC should build a bigger cushion. As things stand, the bank should make gross operating profit of around $38 billion this year, enough to absorb the $27 billion of losses Morgan Stanley predicts on the assumption of a nasty recession. But that doesn't leave a large buffer against a doomsday scenario.

... Continue reading »

November 27

zyaadakairaada 11/27/08

This pick is about: Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft (DB)

Rating:	$34.93 (11/27/08)
Gain/Loss:	+108.27% in 373 days
Allocation:	4.6% of portfolio

0 pt

... Continue reading »

November 25

zyaadakairaada 11/25/08

This pick is about: Wells Fargo & Company (WFC)

Rating:	$26.98 (11/25/08)
Gain/Loss:	-1.82% in 375 days

0 pt

... Continue reading »

Related posts: Bullish on WFC ... and Bullish on WFC ...

November 15

Bullish on GS ...

zyaadakairaada 11/15/08

This pick is about: Goldman Sachs Group Inc The (GS)

Rating:	$64.79 (11/15/08)
Gain/Loss:	+153.59% in 385 days
Allocation:	4.5% of portfolio

1 pt

Time to hit the ground running! The reconstruction of the fantasy market breakdown and its post analysis will continue but so will existing business. Yields are good, Rates are coming down. Equities are at good prices. GS will lead. not AIG. Here's to Obama!

... Continue reading »

Related posts: Bullish on GS ...

November 03

Bullish on KR ...

zyaadakairaada 11/03/08

This pick is about: The Kroger Co. (KR)

Rating:	$27.45 (11/03/08)
Gain/Loss:	-18.98% in 397 days

1 pt

PE of just 14-15, leading food retailing in results and sales growing constantly over the last 4 years at a CAGR of 5.6% and a good return on equity for the industry at 12% + The rally has started from $24 in early October and the stock is likely to grow and give steady returns because of strong fundamentals

... Continue reading »

October 30

zyaadakairaada 10/30/08

This pick is about: CocaCola Bottling Co Consolidated (COKE)

Rating:	$41.04 (10/30/08)
Gain/Loss:	+22.20% in 401 days
Allocation:	0.4% of portfolio

0 pt

... Continue reading »

October 17

zyaadakairaada 10/17/08

This pick is about: The Walt Disney Company Disney (DIS)

Rating:	$24.83 (10/17/08)
Gain/Loss:	+22.15% in 414 days

0 pt

... Continue reading »

zyaadakairaada 10/17/08

This pick is about: MGM MIRAGE (MGM)

Rating:	$15.29 (10/17/08)
Gain/Loss:	+30.48% in 414 days

0 pt

... Continue reading »

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Open | Closed

December 26

zyaadakairaada 12/26/08

This pick is about: Apple Computer Inc (AAPL)

Rating:	$86.08 (12/26/08)
Closed:	10/20/2009 @ $189.86 (+120.56% in 297 days)
Allocation:	5.9% of portfolio

0 pt

... Continue reading »

Related posts: Bullish on AAPL ... and Bullish on AAPL ...

May 14

these retail figures were not so bad but..

zyaadakairaada 05/14/09

This pick is about: Macy's Inc. (M)

Rating:	$11.74 (05/14/09)
Closed:	10/14/2009 @ $19.74 (-68.14% in 153 days)
Target:	$5.00 (-57.41%)

7 pts

Macy's has had too many losses this quarter on y-o-y growth which was just the way GAP also headed 2-3 years back and Circuit City just before. Time to sink these plebians and get on a new horse. Did anyone bother to look at the itemized April retail sales data yesterday morning before they went to work? Or did everyone just jump on the headline figure, which showed a broad-based decline on the month of 0.4% vs. 0.1% expected? (That disappointment sent the Dow Jones plunging nearly 200 points during the day.) Retail sales data comprises a vast range of goods, from Nintendo (NTDOY.PK) Wiis to Apple (AAPL) Macs to just about everything in Macy’s (M) and more. Normally, that’s a pretty good measure of how the economy is doing. But since the financial crisis began, there are two sectors which matter much more than any of the others: housing and automobiles. While retail sales data for April shows an obvious drop in demand for electronic gadgets and gasoline purchases, viewing that alone presents a gross distortion of the real picture. In fact, it looks like consumers are spending more where it counts. Building material and garden equipment dealer sales - closely tied to home sales and refurnishes - rose 0.3% on the month, to $24.467 billion. Automakers also experienced an upturn in sales, with motor vehicle and parts dealers notching up an extra $108 million in sales to $55.398 billion, while auto and other motor vehicle dealers increased sales by roughly the same amount. Meanwhile Wednesday, investors sold Caterpillar (CAT), which was down around 5.3% towards the market close, while Ford (F) was losing about 2%. The government still hasn’t released the individual figures for new car sales and home furnishings stores yet, but judging by the numbers, when it does they will be much more optimistic than we think. While food and beverage stores saw a $480 million decline in sales, restaurants saw an increase of 0.17%, to $38.161 billion. In other words, while consumers are cutting back on buying groceries, they are eating out a little more. Yet YUM! Brands (YUM) was down 3.7% Wednesday afternoon (read more on YUM! here). And Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) declined 5.2%. It’s hard not to see that as the sign of an irrational market, because the message is impossible to miss. Consumers are spending more money in the areas where it counts, while shunning the gadgets and mod-cons, which have a highly volatile sales fluctuation even in the boom times. That’s not a bad sign of a general economic recovery.

... Continue reading »

May 20

COF has nothing in the portfolio

zyaadakairaada 05/20/09

This pick is about: Capital One Financial Corp. (COF)

Rating:	$23.5 (05/20/09)
Closed:	10/14/2009 @ $38.19 (-62.51% in 147 days)
Target:	$12.00 (-48.94%) in Six months

7 pts

After surviving a year in the most spectacular struggle with the impending crisis, the stock finally gave in today as this is a specialist provider in Cards alone and yesterday's new restrictions on account profitability as well as the disruption caused to 'smooth' CRM processes that take advantage of customer's 'citi' moments .. Delinquencies on their intl accounts are smaller than in the US accounts but are fast catching up unlike others like MBNA (now HSBC :: HBC) and others . $BAC and $JPM have already confessed to gaps in their profitability charts from Cards Providers are also likely to get hit by data audits and process reengineering at third party processors like First Data who have increasingly been under pressure and where cross sell is increasingly looking difficult and tough to execute

... Continue reading »

May 22

Bearish on RBS ...

zyaadakairaada 05/22/09

This pick is about: The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc (RBS)

Rating:	$12.82 (05/22/09)
Closed:	10/14/2009 @ $15.02 (-17.16% in 145 days)

1 pt

check utopius's recommendation here http://www.socialpicks.com/ideas/show/249072#comments

... Continue reading »

June 20

UBS should return the money

zyaadakairaada 06/20/09

This pick is about: UBS AG (UBS)

Rating:	$13.25 (06/20/09)
Closed:	10/14/2009 @ $18.1 (-36.60% in 116 days)

21 pts

This first analysis is from a fellow GLG contributor. See below for my update. UBS' stock price has declined significantly in the past two years - a further sale of yet more stock will put additional pressure on share prices. 2. With core capital at approximately 10% (4% lower than it's comparable peer - Credit Suisse), UBS might be hoping that a market rally will buoy the common stock portion of their core capital more than the less liquid governmental preferred shares. 3.Are they looking to repay for issues relating to their peers (JPMC, MS, AXP repaying) or because there are worse risks if their stock price falls below the Swiss government's break-even point at approximately 12.5 CHF? UBS is considering the repayment of CHF 6bn that the Swiss government loaned through the purchase of Mandatory Convertible Notes (MCNs) maturing in 2011. In light of the recent news that JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and American Express intend to repay US government issued TARP funds in the near future, a stock sale by UBS is reportedly under consideration. The Swiss Finance Minister reiterated that any reimbursement should be done so responsibly so as to ensure the health and stability of the bank and eliminate the need for future government intervention. UBS’s Tier 1 capital ratio stands at 10%, about 4% lower than its other Swiss competitor, Credit Suisse. All the banks, including UBS, are chafing under government restrictions. They would all like to regain all decision making responsibilities, including those related to compensation. Government reimbursement is also perceived as a sign of the strength of the bank, which is correlated to the attraction of new talent and retention of the existing. It is interesting to note that the Swiss government did not choose to exercise the MCN notes at the exercise date (Tuesday) which buoyed the stock price slightly. The Swiss government has the option of finding new investors for the MCNs that it currently holds or selling the converted shares. If converted to equity, the Swiss government would hold approximately a 9% stake in the bank. The current convert price of CHF 18.21 would allow them to profit at UBS’s current stock price (CHF 16.08), as the government would be issued a higher number of shares, although capped at a maximum of 330mm. Currently, UBS pays CHF 750mm annually (12.5%) in interest to the government, thus making the price at which the government would break even to be 12.5 francs. Although the stock price has remained above that level recently, the concern over future prospects for UBS linger, especially following its Q1 2009 loss. The UBS Chairman recently noted that the bank “wasn’t out of the woods yet.” So does the Swiss government have a buyer in the wings? Or was not exercizing the shares a political move? If a political decision, how long is the government prepared to stand by? A move to less than 12.5 francs in not impossible ...it is less than 3 standard deviations away from the 260 day mean. Does UBS want to pay back the government today because they might not be able to do so tomorrow? Should the bank continue to lose money, thus making the government’s investment unprofitable, a break-up of UBS franchise is a significant possibility, separating the investment bank from the “core franchise” of wealth management. According to a Euromoney private banking survey, UBS remains the leading wealth management franchise globally. However, we are seeing record numbers of HNW clients change banks. Indeed, it is estimated that more high net and ultra highnet clients have changed banks in the past 18 months than have previously changed banks in the past 18 years! Under normal circumstances. a spinoff of the investment bank would not to expected to happen in the near term. Potential buyers are scarce, despite UBS’s attractive, market-leading position in Equities and Foreign Exchange. The bank is also still dealing with turmoil on the Private Banking side. The fines from its involvement in supposedly encouraging wealthy investors to evade taxes are large - and the reputational damage even greater. However UBS has continued to hire. The number of financial advisers in the Americas increased by 153 people to 8,760. The new advisers have done some good - global client withdrawals slowed to CHF 23.4bn while Wealth Management Americas posted CHF 16.2bn of inflows at the end of Q1 2009. Newly appointed CEO Gruebel remarked that it would take at least 2 years to completely restore client confidence in the franchise, highlighting the focus on the wealth management unit. Moody’s is currently reviewing UBS for a potential one notch ratings downgrade, citing the challenges facing the investment banking and wealth management units.

Update 06/20:

UBS can use the money terms to negotiate with govt

US banks have already raised $75 billion after the stress tests by the administration pointed out requirements for common equity to be strengthened you can read the link here http://tr.im/exitrap (my blog) The market for funds is easy for banks now as the MTM scare for illiquid mortgage secs has been lifted by the temporary govt funds infusion and these funds can be returned. Therefore also to be competitive UBS must return the govt funds. All terms and conditions are not clear for UBS but givt would still not have given money wthout some restrictions and thus UBS credit lines from the market will suffer unless it participated in the return of money festival. Dirk is right, Govt money will also be a constraint in attracting talent esp as many people from Citi, Barclays will be available and this is a good opportunity for UBS Analysis For European Banks, regulation is different as also environment nd it may be relatively tempting to keep government equity for longer. The case also works as working with govt may provide leverage in trading in the Swiss Franc and Euro market. All options must be weighed and negotiated with the governments before returning to normal and paying back the money

Update 06/20:

UBS can also return the money but..

... Continue reading »

August 29

zyaadakairaada 08/29/09

This pick is about: American International Group Inc. (AIG)

Rating:	$50.23 (08/29/09)
Closed:	10/14/2009 @ $44.53 (+11.35% in 46 days)

0 pt

... Continue reading »

August 06

Sell the mono mega Burp!

zyaadakairaada 08/06/09

This pick is about: American International Group Inc. (AIG)

Rating:	$24.16 (08/06/09)
Closed:	08/29/2009 @ $50.23 (-107.91% in 23 days)

22 pts

<font> Jeez, why would you want to by a tub of lard with a leg in the coffin, the money is all gone here..they cannot get an IPO out and it has risen dollars when its worth pennies </font>

AIG has lost its chance to get an AIA IPO in Asia as bankers shy away from sponsoring repeat harakiri in the only remaining profitable global markets, while AIG has also drunk up most of the $180 b that came its way and more that came from its CDS writers at GS And LEH. Why did they write the insurance/default swaps because they would never pay any claim ..but why wouldn't they pay the claim because they would have nothing left

Update 08/06:

the break up (CNN Money)

Welcome to AIG, Bob Benmosche.

At the top of your to-do list as the insurer's new CEO : Oversee the spin-off of two of AIG's core life insurance units. And, in an unprecedented move, sell stakes in those units to the Federal Reserve. All of this in just a matter of months.

It's part of AIG's master plan, known as 'Project Destiny,' which aims to repay a big chunk of the $82 billion in loans owed to U.S. taxpayers.

AIG is breaking off three huge subsidiaries: Its property-casualty business, recently renamed Chartis; Southeast Asian life insurer AIA; and foreign life insurance unit ALICO. Chartis was spun off last week, but its shares will be not be sold to the government.

Bold moves by the Fed. The New York Fed will take a $16 billion preferred interest stake in AIA and a $9 billion share of ALICO. In exchange, AIG will not need to pay back $25 billion of its loan. AIG expects the deal to close by the end of September.

Update 08/06:

The rest of it - no plans i'm sure

With the new Metlife inductee, the investment bankers will have a field day cutting this stubborn megalith which lived by virtually no rules into a domesticated pony for the american market, while earning big fees on the way, Hank having already made a lot of ,money in underhand deals and veritable scams and without its pricing power AIG and its broker AG will be fodder for the ex forces competition and the Berkshire Hathaway companies among others..

... Continue reading »

May 26

A pretty nifty Spider (SPDR Select Sector) - Component Weights

zyaadakairaada 05/26/09

This pick is about: Select Sector SPDRFinancial (XLF)

Rating:	$12.05 (05/26/09)
Closed:	08/06/2009 @ $13.97 (+15.93% in 72 days)
Allocation:	3.1% of portfolio

1 pt

Weight % J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. 13.41 Wells Fargo Company 9.17 Goldman Sachs Group Inc. 6.98 Bank of America Corporation 6.18 US Bancorp 3.46 % Assets in Top 5 Holdings 39.20

... Continue reading »

Ofcourse, the stress gig is up

zyaadakairaada 05/26/09

This pick is about: Select Sector SPDRFinancial (XLF)

Rating:	$12.08 (05/26/09)
Closed:	05/26/2009 @ $12.05 (-0.25% in 6 minutes)
Target:	$16.00 (+32.45%) in Three months
Allocation:	3.1% of portfolio

8 pts

The Fed stress test could be the final capital raise for big banks, unless the economy deteriorates substantially further, says Associate Director of Research Matt Warren. - Morningstar (Target $14.4) Morningstar introduction and analysis The Financial Select Sector SPDR XLF offers investors relatively cheap exposure to the currently out-of-favor financial-services sector. The holdings of this exchange-traded fund are squarely in the cross hairs of the destruction caused by the collapsing domestic housing market, which has wreaked havoc on the financial system via bad loan exposure and deflating asset prices. At this point, we think that overweighting one's financial exposure through a position in this fund represents a high-risk/high-reward investment scenario. Investors should note that adding this ETF to a portfolio that already contains a broad market index, such as the SPDRs SPY, essentially represents "double-dipping" in the sector; this ETF represents the 13% financial-sector weighting in the S&P 500. In our opinion, investors should also be aware that investing in financial-services firms' common equity requires a certain degree of faith, given the changing dynamics and the government's ever-growing and immensely influential role in the industry. As we learned in 2008, if the government is forced to take action, there's a strong likelihood that common equity holders in a given institution get left out to dry while those holding the debt (and in some cases preferred securities) are made whole. We don't make this point so that investors avoid this ETF (or the common equity of financial institutions, in general). However, we think that it is prudent for investors to not only understand their investments but also to be cognizant of the significant risks that may abound. The game has changed in the financial sector. The banking business model is quickly evolving to resemble that of a regulated utility (that is, stringent oversight and lackluster top-line growth). Simply put, the days of being wildly overleveraged to take on outsized risks without adequate compensation are clearly behind us.

Update 05/26:

Bullish on XLF ...

Weight % J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. 13.41% ---------- Wells Fargo Company 9.17 % ---------- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. 6.98 % ---------- Bank of America Corporation 6.18 % ---------- US Bancorp 3.46 % ---------- Assets in Top 5 Holdings 39.20

... Continue reading »

October 03

Bearish on WB ...

zyaadakairaada 10/03/08

This pick is about: Wachovia Corp (WB)

Rating:	$6.94 (10/03/08)
Closed:	05/26/2009 @ $0.0 ( n/a) in 234 days)

0 pt

Wells bought it for $7 a share. seems high for the losses in morts - and what happens to citi's purchase of $300 million portfolio?

... Continue reading »

May 20

What a breakdown in value

zyaadakairaada 05/20/09

This pick is about: Capital One Financial Corp. (COF)

Rating:	$23.44 (05/20/09)
Closed:	05/20/2009 @ $23.5 (-0.26% in 1 minute)

7 pts

... Continue reading »

May 19

The $EUR's great climb

zyaadakairaada 05/19/09

This pick is about: CurrencyShares Euro Trust Euro Currency (FXE)

Rating:	$136.09 (05/19/09)
Closed:	05/19/2009 @ $136.06351 (-0.02% in 1 hour)
Target:	$150.00 (+10.22%)

14 pts

Update 05/19:

FXE plays the EURUSD chart

... Continue reading »

May 14

these retail figures were not so bad but..

zyaadakairaada 05/14/09

This pick is about: Macy's Inc. (M)

Rating:	$11.75 (05/14/09)
Closed:	05/14/2009 @ $11.74 (+0.09% in 2 minutes)

7 pts

... Continue reading »

March 19

Buying JAVA! Yes OPapa IBM

zyaadakairaada 03/19/09

This pick is about: International Business Machines Corp (IBM)

Rating:	$93.08 (03/19/09)
Closed:	03/23/2009 @ $95.66 (+2.77% in 4 days)

7 pts

... Continue reading »

Related posts: Bullish on IBM ...

March 20

zyaadakairaada 03/20/09

This pick is about: Capital One Financial Corp. (COF)

Rating:	$12.25 (03/20/09)
Closed:	03/23/2009 @ $12.58 (-2.69% in 3 days)

0 pt

... Continue reading »

October 30

Bearish on IBM ...

zyaadakairaada 10/30/08

This pick is about: International Business Machines Corp (IBM)

Rating:	$90.88 (10/30/08)
Closed:	03/19/2009 @ $93.08 (-2.42% in 139 days)

0 pt

with the buyback closed, its lack of leadership will continue to hit the stock thru 2009

... Continue reading »

Related posts: Bullish on IBM ...

October 07

Neutral on ORCL ...

zyaadakairaada 10/07/08

This pick is about: Oracle Corp (ORCL)

Rating:	$18.29 (10/07/08)
Closed:	03/19/2009 @ $17.56 (-3.99% in 162 days)

1 pt

As an enterprise vendor of choice, ORCL definitely has a future however, DHS mandates and the touted nextgen technology adoption rollouts or for that matter any significant new business is likely to be delayed.

... Continue reading »

October 10

zyaadakairaada 10/10/08

This pick is about: 1/100 Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJX)

Rating:	$0.0 (10/10/08)
Closed:	03/18/2009 @ $0.0 ( n/a) in 158 days)

0 pt

... Continue reading »

November 05

Bearish on COF ...

zyaadakairaada 11/05/08

This pick is about: Capital One Financial Corp. (COF)

Rating:	$41.56 (11/05/08)
Closed:	03/18/2009 @ $12.8 (+69.20% in 132 days)

1 pt

Citi is already suffering $4 billion in losses in its Credit Card portfolio, Capital One is likely to follow with the portfolio of card receivables looking shaky at best

... Continue reading »

March 18

Bullish on AXP ...

zyaadakairaada 03/18/09

This pick is about: American Express Company (AXP)

Rating:	$12.83 (03/18/09)
Closed:	03/18/2009 @ $12.83 (+0.00% in 12 minutes)

7 pts

Credit Card DEfaults are nearly double of what they were six months ago but Amex is more into travel related services esp as far as the US is concerned. high time it's last 12 months performance were obviated and a fresh start considered. a small bump then to figure out what 2009 holds for it, may not be too good but this is bad enough!

... Continue reading »

Related posts: Bullish on AXP ...

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More about zyaadakairaada

Investment Style:
Moderate [?]

Avg exp holding time:
88.97 days

Age: 30's	Occupation: Investment Banker
Location: India

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