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 wfmilover     Graphic_subscribe   

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    Community Rank: Analyst (163 pts)  |  Member since 07/23/2008
Picks Performance:
Outperforms
42%
of community

What's this?
All-time Return
-22.40%
(in 1 year) 		Risk (SD)
Conservative
0.00% 		Sharpe Ratio
-19.34
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August 26

Go Deep for the Long-Run
   wfmilover   08/26/08  

This pick is about: Transocean Inc (RIG)
Rating:   Positive   $129.97 (08/26/08)
Gain/Loss:   -35.20% in 466 days
Target:   $145.00 (+11.56%) in Six months
Allocation:   100.0% of portfolio
3 pts


Fundamental Analysis   Favorable/Unfavorable Valuation  
RIG is the leader in deepwater drilling and trading at fantastically low valuation ratios.  Fear of a world slowdown, US opposition to deepwater drilling, and the recent decrease in oil supply is behind the sell-off of energy companies.  These are all short-term effects which have decreased the price of RIG and made it attractive to a long-term investor.  Deepwater oil will become increasingly a part in maintaining the world's current production of oil as the current supply peaks.  RIGs Price / Cash Flow (TTM), Price / Earnings (TTM), '08 PEG, Price / Sales (TTM) are historically low.  They margins and expected growth is above industry average.  The company also enjoys greater leverage than its peers (but still far below what could be considered risky), which will allow it to earn a higher ROE.

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Related posts:   Bullish on RIG ...


August 04

   wfmilover   08/04/08  

This pick is about: Nokia Corp (NOK)
Rating:   Positive   $27.58 (08/04/08)
Gain/Loss:   -53.77% in 488 days
0 pt


July 30

Oversold
   wfmilover   07/30/08  

This pick is about: Abercrombie & Fitch Co (ANF)
Rating:   Positive   $56.4 (07/30/08)
Gain/Loss:   -35.80% in 493 days
Target:   $70.00 (+24.11%) in Six months
1 pt


Fundamental Analysis  

ANF has a 15.27% growth rate, above industry average, but its Forward P/E of about 10 is below the Industry Average PE.  In fact, the Current P/E  is almost half of ANF's historical 5-yr average.  The stock was sold off recently because CFO resigned to switch companies, but given ANF's company record and their growth potential they will either appoint or attract a high-performing CFO.



July 25

Bullish on NVDA ...
   wfmilover   07/25/08  

This pick is about: NVIDIA Corp (NVDA)
Rating:   Positive   $11.055 (07/25/08)
Gain/Loss:   +25.10% in 498 days
6 pts


Stock is oversold. Growth in US may be stagnant, but expect growing demand from other countries, especially since weak dollar makes NVDA chips attractive. Management is very competent, CEO was a chip designer himself. Main competitor AMD has hit a rough patch and is too busy bleeding cash to make ATI competetive. Not too mention, low stock price makes it attractive buyout target, especially given its market postition & technological expertise. Given stalling semiconductor market, M&A could be attractive growth strategy. At a $121B market cap, Intel could easily absorb NVDA's $6b (Keep in mind this could draw the Government's attention).  Invest in NVDA for the long term, but you may be able to cash out early if they are acquired.

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Related posts:   Bullish on NVDA ...


July 23

Bearish on WFMI ...
   wfmilover   07/23/08  

This pick is about: Whole Foods Market Inc (WFMI)
Rating:   Negative   $22.87 (07/23/08)
Gain/Loss:   -12.33% in 500 days
12 pts


Oil prices are triple what they were when WFMI peaked in 2005, CPI increase of 1.1% is highest since June 2005, and home prices are still falling. Middle class consumers are no longer able to donate their weekly paycheck to WFMI now that they are facing high gas prices, declining incomes, and the mortgage trainwreck. Aggressive expansion by WFMI (new stores and purchase of Wild Oats) has been countered by slowing economy.  Look for stock to take another hit when they miss earnings report on 8/5. If you think the US economy will recover by mid-2009, then buy on the dip and hold WFMI through Sep. 09.


Update 08/06:

Monstrously eccentric CEO and health fanatic John Mackey has finally taken Whole Foods (WFMI) down to a level from which it is unlikely to recover. Shares are off 12% after hours to $20 against a 52-week high $$53.65

Earnings for the last quarter dropped to $33.9 million from $49.1 million in the same period a year ago. WFMI will scramble to keep itself together.

Among other things, Whole Foods is is reducing the number of stores expected to open in fiscal year 2009 to approximately 15 and has cut all discretionary capital expenditure budgets not related to new stores by 50%. The firm will also is suspending its quarterly cash dividend . Since WFMI had a yield of 3.7%, the cut means something.

To nail the lid of the coffin down tight, Whole Foods announced it expects sales growth of 6% to 10% for the year -- rather than the previously stated 25% to 30% growth. It said comparable-store sales are expected to grow 1% to 5%, down from the previously anticipated 7.5% to 9.5% growth.



 
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More about wfmilover

Investment Style:
Moderate  [?]

Avg exp holding time:
490.00 days

Age:
20's





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