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 Ryan C     Graphic_subscribe   

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    Community Rank: Sr. Analyst (343 pts)  |  Member since 12/18/2007
Picks Performance:
Outperforms
85%
of community

What's this?
All-time Return
+55.17%
(in 1 year) 		Risk (SD)
Moderate
0.00% 		Sharpe Ratio
19.71
Followers
2 		Winning Picks
12 of 42 		Total Views
15463

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August 28

Starent Networks is a strong buy
   Ryan C   08/28/08  

This pick is about: Starent Networks Corp. (STAR)
Rating:   Positive   $13.982 (08/28/08)
Gain/Loss:   +147.03% in 465 days
Target:   $50.00 (+257.60%) in > one year
7 pts


Fundamental Analysis  
Here are some quick numbers:
NCAV is 65 based on float
Atman Z-score: 5.61
Intrinsic value: 52.76
PEG: .39
enterprise value/cash flow: 10
Based on these numbers, Star is a strong buy. No other stock is even close when it comes to value and growth. For long term value investors who invest based on fundamental analysis, it's hard to pass this stock up.


Still a good buy
   Ryan C   08/28/08  

This pick is about: Vimpel Communications (VIP)
Rating:   Positive   $24.15 (08/28/08)
Gain/Loss:   -19.01% in 465 days
1 pt


Recent News  
After today's earnings call and news that VIP would carry the iPhone in Russia, this stock is still a solid buy.


Bullish on SAW ...
   Ryan C   08/28/08  

This pick is about: FocusShares ISE Homebuilders Index Fund (SAW)
Rating:   Positive   $45.8 (08/28/08)
Gain/Loss:   -23.76% in 465 days
7 pts


Home builders are on their way up. Most are trading well below their NCAV and this fund in particular is a good way to gain exposure with out the risk of any single company going out of business. While their assets may not be as high as their balance sheets indicate, they still have net value and many have few liabilities. Housing market will bottom June-July 09 and if the market is 6 months ahead, now is a good time to buy. Home builders bottomed out in July and given how crappy the market is, I'll bet it takes more then a year to dig out. In a year, will grow 20-40%.


August 25

Bullish on PCCC ...
   Ryan C   08/25/08  

This pick is about: PC Connection Inc. (PCCC)
Rating:   Positive   $7.34 (08/25/08)
Gain/Loss:   -15.67% in 468 days
1 pt


Good risk/reward as previously stated. Low price to cash flow, low P/E, low PEG, forward intrinsic value of 20.21, and NCAV close to list price. Altman Z-score of 6 means a company unlikely to go bankrupt. One of the few good value plays with less risk then financials.


Bullish on ASFI ...
   Ryan C   08/25/08  

This pick is about: Asta Funding Inc. (ASFI)
Rating:   Positive   $7.98 (08/25/08)
Gain/Loss:   +1.50% in 468 days
1 pt


Now a good buy. Trading at 50% NCAV. Low P/E and price to book. Intrinsic value of 13.54. Too many assets to go under with too few liabilities. Price to free cash flow of 4.56. One of the only stocks Graham would consider buying.


July 21

No coverage=hidden gem
   Ryan C   07/21/08  

This pick is about: VSE Corp. (VSEC)
Rating:   Positive   $34.2 (07/21/08)
Gain/Loss:   +31.08% in 503 days
Target:   $45.00 (+31.58%) in Six months
7 pts


I still don't know why no one covers this stock. It is a very small cap (152 mil) but when you look at the numbers, I can't see why you would pass on such a great investment. No debt, P/E of 11, positive earnings, insider ownership of 34%, long term government contracts, return on equity of 30%, and cash on hand (about 61 million in the bank). Why does no one cover this company? Why haven't you bought this yet? Talk about throwing the baby out with the bath water, it's off 35% and it's got positive earning and growth? Crazy.


July 18

Bullish on AXP ...
   Ryan C   07/18/08  

This pick is about: American Express Company (AXP)
Rating:   Positive   $42.25 (07/18/08)
Gain/Loss:   -6.98% in 506 days
Target:   $58.00 (+37.28%) in Six months
7 pts


Things will be back on track for AXP within the next six months. This whole credit crisis won't be over yet but it will hit the rich much less (aka people who use AXP). This is a smart company which never seemed too bothered by the whole credit crunch compared to many others. A P/E for AXP of 11 is historically low or histarically low depending on your persective. Expect earnings of .84 per share for sept 08 with revenue of 7.9B. I expect growth numbers of 12-15% a year for the next 5 years. The low dividends are a good thing as their capitol goes into improving their company and not pleasing investors.

+
Related posts:   Bullish on AXP ...


ISRG will beat market expectations
   Ryan C   07/18/08  

This pick is about: Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG)
Rating:   Positive   $289.20001 (07/18/08)
Gain/Loss:   +0.97% in 506 days
Target:   $320.00 (+10.65%) in One month
7 pts


Big rally next week with ISRG and AAPL reporting earnings. ISRG could gain 10% by the end of the week and another 10-20% by next month. Believe it. It may look expensive but take into consideration it's growth and it will look cheap. I know insurence companies have been off but people are still getting medical proceedures done and hospitals are still opening all over texas and other states. ISRG is a must if your looking for short term gains.

+
Related posts:   Bullish on ISRG ...


Bullish on OMG ...
   Ryan C   07/18/08  

This pick is about: OM Group Inc. (OMG)
Rating:   Positive   $32.07 (07/18/08)
Gain/Loss:   -5.99% in 506 days
Target:   $60.00 (+87.09%) in Six months
1 pt


Will continue to rise. P/E is only 5-6x, PEG is .4, no debt, good insider ownership for a company it's size, doubled their revenue last quarter, and it's near it's 52 week low. This company got dragged into the muck with the rest of the market but will rebound strong.


July 17

   Ryan C   07/17/08  

This pick is about: Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)
Rating:   Positive   $80.44 (07/17/08)
Gain/Loss:   +5.45% in 507 days
Target:   $100.00 (+24.32%) in Six months
0 pt


Bullish on CLDN ...
   Ryan C   07/17/08  

This pick is about: Celadon Group Inc (CLDN)
Rating:   Positive   $12.37 (07/17/08)
Gain/Loss:   +29.43% in 507 days
Target:   $17.00 (+37.43%) in Three months
1 pt


Best trucking company in the business years running. Was a great buy at $9 still a good buy until around $16.


July 16

Bullish on DEO ...
   Ryan C   07/16/08  

This pick is about: DIAGEO plc (DEO)
Rating:   Positive   $70.78 (07/16/08)
Gain/Loss:   -1.99% in 508 days
1 pt


down about 18% should rebound nicely. Obviously it's a stable industry and if the housing market keeps on dropping, more bankers will be hitting the bottle.

+
Related posts:   Bullish on DEO ...


July 14

Bullish on SCU ...
   Ryan C   07/14/08  

This pick is about: Storm Cat Energy Corp. (SCU)
Rating:   Positive   $1.13 (07/14/08)
Gain/Loss:   +2170.80% in 510 days
Target:   $1.76 (+55.75%) in Six months
9 pts


Will turn profitable by early 09. More modern and unconventional approach to natural gas mining from coal seams, fractured shales, and tight sand formations. Owns a 314 net wells capable of producing 44.5 billion cubic feet of gas. A good buy as a "latte" stock which should double in the next year (at least). Not covered and not followed by analysts, this stock fell to a new low before it's recent resurgence.


   Ryan C   07/14/08  

This pick is about: MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI)
Rating:   Positive   $30.3 (07/14/08)
Gain/Loss:   +70.59% in 510 days
Target:   $48.00 (+58.42%) in Three months
0 pt


The value of water
   Ryan C   07/14/08  

This pick is about: PICO Holdings Inc. (PICO)
Rating:   Positive   $44.0 (07/14/08)
Gain/Loss:   -26.25% in 510 days
Target:   $60.00 (+36.36%) in > one year
1 pt


Pico owns water rights to most of the southwest where water is valuable. As temperatures rise and water becomes more and more valuable, so will PICO.


July 10

Bullish on BAC ...
   Ryan C   07/10/08  

This pick is about: Bank of America Corp (BAC)
Rating:   Positive   $21.31 (07/10/08)
Gain/Loss:   -23.60% in 514 days
1 pt


Long on BAC. Many not pay immediate gains but over the next year or so this is a stock to have. Much better then alternatives.


Bullish on ACH ...
   Ryan C   07/10/08  

This pick is about: Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. (ACH)
Rating:   Positive   $29.76 (07/10/08)
Gain/Loss:   -3.66% in 514 days
1 pt


Trading at 07 prices? This is a joke. The Metal industry has been hit hard recently but a new record price for aluminum and reduced output? This is a stock to watch. Note: I bought back into this stock yesterday.


December 18

   Ryan C   12/18/07  

This pick is about: ONYX Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ONXX)
Rating:   Positive   $54.99 (12/18/07)
Gain/Loss:   -45.86% in 719 days
0 pt


   Ryan C   12/18/07  

This pick is about: Dawson Geophysical Company (DWSN)
Rating:   Positive   $67.13 (12/18/07)
Gain/Loss:   -67.84% in 719 days
0 pt


   Ryan C   12/18/07  

This pick is about: Palomar Medical Technologies Inc (PMTI)
Rating:   Positive   $18.86 (12/18/07)
Gain/Loss:   -50.37% in 719 days
0 pt


 
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More about Ryan C

Investment Style:
Moderate  [?]

Avg exp holding time:
272.00 days

Age:
20's

Occupation:
Graduate student

Location:
Ann Arbor, MI


About Me:
Do not follow any of my advice for the short term.




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