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 Walter Thatcher     www.stocksforallseasons.com     Graphic_subscribe   

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    Community Rank: Sr. Associate (2796 pts)  |  Member since 01/29/2007
Gekko
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October 12

A biotech stock that you'll be glad you bought
Gekko
   Walter Thatcher   10/12/09  

This pick is about: Maxygen Inc. (MAXY)
Rating:   Positive   $6.55 (10/12/09)
Gain/Loss:   -15.88% in 56 days
Target:   $8.00 (+22.14%) in > one year
9 pts


Fundamental Analysis  
This stock is a rare bird. It's a biotech company with a real product and real earnings. They have no long-term debt and a lot of cash. The P/E under 4. Insiders own about a quarter of the company. They have a discipliined growth strategy, using joint ventures with larger,, better-capitalized partners in order to share costs and risks.


September 23

Cash all around
Gekko
   Walter Thatcher   09/23/09  

This pick is about: Premier Financial Bancorp Inc. (PFBI)
Rating:   Positive   $6.9 (09/23/09)
Gain/Loss:   -11.59% in 75 days
Target:   $8.00 (+15.94%)
9 pts


Fundamental Analysis   Favorable/Unfavorable Valuation  
Premier Financial is buying Abigail Adams National bank.  Both banks are trading for less than the cash on the balance sheet.  Uncle Sam is kicking money in order to make this deal happen.  Both companies are selling for less than book value.  Oh yeah, there's a juicy 6.30% yield. 


August 24

A Chinese microcap biotech
Gekko
   Walter Thatcher   08/24/09  

This pick is about: Skystar BioPharmaceutical Company (SKBI)
Rating:   Positive   $13.36 (08/24/09)
Gain/Loss:   +68.04% in 105 days
Target:   $20.00 (+49.70%) in > one year
9 pts


Fundamental Analysis   Favorable/Unfavorable Valuation  

When you see a title like that , you probably assume that this is a volatile, money-losing stock that is more a prayer than a real company with real products.  You would be wrong.  Skystar makes veterinary medicines, vaccines and other drugs for livestock.   Two months ago, they were uplisted and joined the Nasdaq. 
  First of all,  the stocks is not volatile, at least not in the traditional sense.  It has a negative 0.71 beta.  Secondly, the company makes money .  For the most recent quarter, they made $0.73/share.  Revenue is growing at about a 40% yoy clip.  It's trading at a P/E of about 4 and a P/CF of 7. 



April 02

Barrell of a gun
Gekko
   Walter Thatcher   04/02/09  

This pick is about: Smith & Wesson Holding Corp (SWHC)
Rating:   Positive   $5.66 (04/02/09)
Gain/Loss:   -6.89% in 249 days
Target:   $8.00 (+41.34%) in > one year
9 pts


Recent News   Fundamental Analysis  
The stock has been on a tear since Obama got elected, effectively tripling.    I bought it in my real account at $5.85 a couple of weeks ago.  This is just a wager that guns have a future.  This stock got really cheap and still sports a modest P/S and PEG.   The ex-CEO has unloaded some stock recently and that gives me pause.  Still sales were up 25% in the third quarter and sales as whole in the industry are up since the election. 


October 31

Holidays coming
Gekko
   Walter Thatcher   10/31/08  

This pick is about: Cash America International Inc. (CSH)
Rating:   Positive   $35.65 (10/31/08)
Gain/Loss:   -7.10% in 401 days
Target:   $42.00 (+17.81%) in Three months
10 pts


Fundamental Analysis  
The pawnbroker business has some of the fattest margins out there: 25% on loans, 50% on items sold, and 25% on cash advances.  November and December are their busiest months due to the need to raise cash for holiday spending.  Legal hindrances have created significant barriers to entry for new competitors leaving those who are already in this space to further consolidate. 

Update 03/19:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29762007


October 08

Chinese food additive
Gekko
   Walter Thatcher   10/08/08  

This pick is about: ChinaBiotics Inc. (CHBT)
Rating:   Negative   $9.9 (10/08/08)
Gain/Loss:   -48.28% in 424 days
Target:   $8.00 (-19.19%) in Six months
10 pts


Recent News  
  This is actually a solid company, so why am I shorting it?  Guilt by association .  Anything to do with China is getting killed.  Although this stock has bounced off its 52-week low of $8,  I want to be short microcap Chinese equities, especially ones that trade on the Bulletin Board.  There are some incredibly profitable, debt-free companies that are trading at single-digit multiples there, but the market is obliterating them.  That's where I'm going to start picking through the trash once things calm down. 


October 01

Dear Prudence
Gekko
   Walter Thatcher   10/01/08  

This pick is about: Hudson City Bancorp Inc. (HCBK)
Rating:   Positive   $18.73 (10/01/08)
Gain/Loss:   -30.43% in 431 days
Target:   $19.50 (+4.11%) in < two weeks
20 pts


Recent News   Fundamental Analysis  
Hudson City Bancorp is a very conservatively run bank holding company that focuses on bread and butter lending in the metropolitan New York area. How conservatively run is this bank? They actually keep on their books the loans they originate. This means that they have to extra picky about loan quality. In fact, they have increased their cash position and earnings and even increased their dividend last quarter. That's nothing short of amazing in this environment. The financials will rally once this deal is approved and I'm putting money behind one of the best managed.

Update 12/16:
Ron Hermance is now a celebrity.  First, it was Daniel Gross that lionized him.  Next, it was JIm Cramer.  Now MSN Money's StockScouter is hip to the stock. 

Update 05/16:
I originally made this call back in October.  The stocks has dropped by about a third since then.  However, looking at the company, I love it even more.  A much smarter man than me would've had you buying even more shares back in March when it dipped into the $7 to $8 range.  Let me highlight just a few of things I like about this bank.

  • Yield: 4.8%
  • P/E: 12.53
  • They have taken no TARP $
  • EPS has grown in the last two quarters.
  • Net interest spreads have widened.

  Undoubtedly, there is more pain ahead for the banking industry.  I suggest that you follow this stock closely and snap up shares on weakness.  If it falls below $10 again, I'm going to go ape$hit buying the stock. 

Update 08/27:
Watch this video .  By the way, even though this stock has nearly doubled from its 52-week low, it's still yielding over 4.5%. 


August 09

Clinical trials
Gekko
   Walter Thatcher   08/09/08  

This pick is about: ICON plc (ICLR)
Rating:   Positive   $87.18 (08/09/08)
Gain/Loss:   -73.98% in 484 days
Target:   $100.00 (+14.71%) in Three months
1 pt


Fundamental Analysis  
Icon runs clinical trials for drug companies.  These companies are taking advantage of outsourcing to India and improving their margins.  This stock keeps taking out 52-week highs. 


July 24

Cadence Design Systems
Gekko
   Walter Thatcher   07/24/08  

This pick is about: Cadence Design Systems Inc. (CDNS)
Rating:   Negative   $7.24 (07/24/08)
Gain/Loss:   +14.50% in 500 days
Target:   $7.00 (-3.31%) in < two weeks
9 pts


   Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (Cadence) develops electronic design automation (EDA) software and hardware. The Company licenses software, sells or leases hardware technology, and provides design, methodology and education services throughout the world to help manage and accelerate electronics product development processes. Its range of products and services are used by the electronics companies to design and develop complex integrated circuits (ICs) and electronics systems. The Company offers its customers three license types for its software: perpetual, term and subscription.


May 12

This is an attempt to collect a debt
Gekko
   Walter Thatcher   05/12/08  

This pick is about: Asta Funding Inc. (ASFI)
Rating:   Positive   $9.56 (05/12/08)
Gain/Loss:   -26.05% in 573 days
Target:   in > one year
31 pts


Fundamental Analysis   Favorable/Unfavorable Valuation  
   The company is engaged in the business of purchasing, managing for its own account and servicing distressed consumer receivables, including charged-off receivables, semi-performing receivables and performing receivables.   Wouldn't you go long debt collectors in a bad economy? Especially a cheap one? This stock is trading at less than book with a single digit P/E, P/S, and P/(F)CF.  It's been decimated in the last year and is trading near its 52-week low.  Low float.  Only two analyts follow the stock.   
   The CEO's family just advanced the company money in order ot help it pay down it's revolving line of credit, so management is definitely committed.  This is bottom fishing, so be prepared for wild swings before things get better. 

Update 05/21:
The CEO chalked this up to trouble collecting.  That's to be expected during a recession.  The stock is now trading at a 52-week low.  I'm still like this company and would pick up additional shares.  Things are bad, but a P/E of 2 is ridiculous. 
   Tbere is cause for concern though.  The debt-to-equity ratio is atrocious(1.29), but that is actually on the low side for the industry.  The margins are enormous if they can find a way to collect.  Failing that, the company must be able to find new sources of cash in order to make it through the hard times ahead.  Maybe the Stern family can keep it afloat.  Maybe not.  The insiders own over a quarter of the company stock, so they have every incentive to make things work. 

Update 08/12:
ASFI 's business contracted across the board. This is not necessarily a bad thing.  They've been paying down debt and being very picky about the debt they buy.  This stock is a good bellweather for how the economy is going.  These guys are vultures and if the carrion doesn't look all that great to them,that should give all of us pause.  Were there any bright spots?  Yes.  Shareholder equity increased a bit. 

Update 01/09:

ASFI is trading at the following multiples:

P/E: 1.68
P/S: 0.25
P/B: 0.14
P/CF: 1.59
P/FCF: 0.57

  Does this company deserve to be cheap?  Yes. They are in danger fo being delisted. It has a crushing debt load.  Institutions have abandoned the stock. They are trying to collect debts in a bad economy. 
  Don't think  I'm not eyeing ECPG. 

 



April 11

This industry stinks
Gekko
   Walter Thatcher   04/11/08  

This pick is about: Universal Insurance Holdings (UVE)
Rating:   Positive   $4.51 (04/11/08)
Gain/Loss:   +20.62% in 604 days
11 pts


I love buying when everyone hates a stock.  I don't think that things can get much worse.  It has a P/E of 3 and a yield of 6%. 

Update 05/08:
The investment has lost about 1/5 of it's value since I made the call.  I'm doubling down at under $5. 

Update 08/28:
David Gross wrote a very good piece for Slate last month about how Uncle Sam is keeping the insurance industry afloat.  How?  Growth in Medicare and Medicaid programs as people have lost their employer-provided private insurance has picked up some of the slack. 


Air Products and Chemicals
Gekko
   Walter Thatcher   04/11/08  

This pick is about: Air Products and Chemicals Inc. (APD)
Rating:   Positive   $95.87 (04/11/08)
Gain/Loss:   -13.96% in 604 days
9 pts


Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. offers atmospheric gases, process and specialty gases, performance materials, and equipment and services worldwide. Its Merchant Gases segment sells industrial gases, such as oxygen, nitrogen, and argon; hydrogen and helium; and certain medical and specialty gases for metal, glass, chemical, food, medical, steel, general manufacturing, and petroleum and natural gas industries. The company's Tonnage Gases segment provides hydrogen, carbon monoxide, nitrogen, oxygen, and syngas to the petroleum refining, chemical, and metallurgical industries. Its Electronics and Performance Materials segment offers specialty gases, such as nitrogen trifluoride, silane, arsine, phosphine, white ammonia, silicon tetrafluoride, carbon tetrafluoride, hexafluoromethane, and tungsten hexafluoride, as well as tonnage gases, specialty and bulk chemicals, and services and equipment for the manufacture of silicon and compound semiconductors, thin film transistor liquid crystal displays, and photovoltaic devices. The company's Equipment and Energy segment manufactures cryogenic and gas processing equipment for air separation, hydrocarbon recovery and purification, natural gas liquefaction, and helium distribution, as well as offers plant design, engineering, procurement, and construction management services for the chemical and petrochemical manufacturing, oil and gas recovery and processing, and steel and primary metals processing industries. Air Products and Chemicals' Healthcare segment provides respiratory therapies, home medical equipment, and infusion services to patients in their homes. Its Chemicals segment produces polymer emulsions used in adhesives, nonwoven fabric binders, paper coatings, paints, inks, and carpet backing binder formulations, as well as di-nitrotoluene for use as an intermediate in the manufacture of precursor of flexible polyurethane foam.


October 13

Riding the Asian wave
Gekko
   Walter Thatcher   10/13/07  

This pick is about: iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund (EWH)
Rating:   Positive   $22.15 (10/13/07)
Gain/Loss:   -26.59% in 785 days
Target:   $28.00 (+26.41%) in Six months
5 pts


There will inevitably be a correction in Asian shares.  You can guarantee it.  However, in the long-term this is where the lion's share of new wealth will be created for the next few decades. 

Update 10/15:
Mainland Chinese will be entering this market soon and driving the indexes higher. 

Update 09/05:
Asia is getting cheaper and the growth isn't slowing. Take advantage of global selloffs to make big money down the road.


October 09

Emerging market growth in a developed market
Gekko
   Walter Thatcher   10/09/07  

This pick is about: iShares MSCI Singapore Index Fund (EWS)
Rating:   Positive   $15.7075 (10/09/07)
Gain/Loss:   -26.40% in 789 days
15 pts


Singapore is not a backwater emerging market.  Singapore is well on its way to becoming the Switzerland of Asia.  This ETF is heavily weighted toward financial services, business services, and telecom: three great ways to cash in on the economic growth of this island nation.  Also, the average P/E of the companies of the ETF is 16.  That's not bad at all for what's supposedly an emerging market. 

Update 08/11:

There is an emerging markets selloff.  The recently strong dollar hasn't helped.  Also, this ETF is about half in financial services.  Still, it is only down about 9% YTD.  Average P/E of the companies it holds is 14.5, roughly the same as SPY with much greater growth prospects.



September 19

Buy this French utility
Gekko
   Walter Thatcher   09/19/07  

This pick is about: Veolia Environnement (VE)
Rating:   Positive   $83.01 (09/19/07)
Gain/Loss:   -58.85% in 809 days
13 pts


VE is the world's largest water utility, operating primarily in the sewage, water treatment, and waste management arenas.  They also do some work in rail transport and heating/cooling.  The stock is trading at 31x earnings, but is also less thant 1x sales.  There's a decent yield(2.7%).  ROE is great (over 20%).  Despite having recently won contracts in China, this is not a fast growing business.  The earnings chug along at about 10% a year.  This stock is also a potential beneficiary of the green movement that has been gaining momentum in the last few years. 

Update 05/21:
Veolia had a bad quarter .   Although, I'm not sure how good a good quarter would be.  They are big acquirer and they will need time to digest acquisitions.  In the meantime, the stock has gotten much cheaper and the yield that much juicier. 


$ in sewage
Gekko
   Walter Thatcher   09/19/07  

This pick is about: Companhia de Saneamento Bsico do Estado de So PauloSABESP (SBS)
Rating:   Positive   $50.67 (09/19/07)
Gain/Loss:   -25.24% in 809 days
1 pt


  This company operates the sewage system in Sao Paolo.  It's a tiny, volatile stock with great margins and low visibility.  This is a great , non-mine-related way to get into the hot Brazilian growth story. 


July 22

Piggybacking Apple
Gekko
   Walter Thatcher   07/22/07  

This pick is about: Broadcom Corp (BRCM)
Rating:   Positive   $34.38 (07/22/07)
Gain/Loss:   -11.87% in 868 days
Target:   $45.00 (+30.89%) in One month
11 pts


Broadcom makes parts for the iPhone. 

Update 08/11:
Tech is rallying today for no apparent reason.    This stock has gotten a nice pop from the 3G iPhone release and the billion dollar buy back that they announced last Monday.    They got a favorable judgement.  

Update 07/23:
Broadcom is expected to earn $0.236 per share.  For more information, check out this link . 


July 19

This is a long term buy and hold
Gekko
   Walter Thatcher   07/19/07  

This pick is about: Google Inc (GOOG)
Rating:   Positive   $548.83002 (07/19/07)
Gain/Loss:   +6.73% in 871 days
27 pts


As long as YHOO continues to fail to execute, this is the name in search. 

Update 07/23:
GOOG doesn't give guidance, so how can they miss?  Buy this dip and forget the noise.

Update 10/02:
Credit Suisse has revised upwards their revenue and earnings estimates for GOOG.  Look for other brokerages to follow the leader and lead this stock higher. 

Update 10/08:
Vishesh Kumar of the Street.com's take on GOOG.  He sees a big move upward this quarter.  I don't know.  It might, it might not.  All I know is that as long as YHOO continues to drop the ball and MSFT can't figure out how to get in the game, GOOG's moat will continue to widen and deepen. 

Update 10/30:

  Google is set to announce details of the much-rumored GPhone. 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119369951717475558.html?mod=h...


Update 10/30:

This is a link from TechCrunch that alleges that Google will be adding a social-networking layer to its  products.

http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/10/29/googles-response-to-face...


Update 08/20:
Google now has nearly 70% of the search market.

Update 02/16:
I should've bought more when it was under $300.  Oh well, the way the market swings these days, I may see that entry point again.  Regardless, I'll gladly buy at $357. 

Update 05/26:
Look at the PEG of approximately 1.  YHOO 's PEG is over twice that, as is that IACI .  Perhaps that's not enough proof for you.  Well, co you like cash?  GOOG only has $17 billion of it sitting on its balance sheet.  That's cash totally unencumbered by debt.  Still not convinced?  Consensus earnings estimates clock in at  $21.05 for this year.  Right now, it's trading at a multiple of 29.51.  That translates to a reasonable price of $621.  Right now, it's about $403.  I think that's a pretty good margin of safety. 


 
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Investment Style:
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Avg exp holding time:
148.85 days

Age:
30's

Occupation:
wealth manager

Location:
New York, NY


Website:
www.stocksforallseasons.com

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