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 newsmonkey     Graphic_subscribe   

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    Community Rank: Sr. Associate (1635 pts)  |  Member since 07/18/2008
Newsmonkey
Picks Performance:
Outperforms
71%
of community

What's this?
All-time Return
-19.36%
(in 1 year) 		Risk (SD)
Conservative
0.00% 		Sharpe Ratio
-2.87
Followers
26 		Winning Picks
60 of 169 		Total Views
178847

Shared Picks   |   Personal Portfolio   |   Voted Picks   |   Commented On  

View:   Shared Picks (Quick) / (Detailed)   |    Personal Portfolio

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October 27

GLD - There is gold in them there hills! More on Gold and why you should own it.
Newsmonkey
   newsmonkey   10/27/08  

This pick is about: streetTRACKS Gold (GLD)
Rating:   Positive   $72.09 (10/27/08)
Gain/Loss:   +57.79% in 405 days
Target:   $2,000.00 (+2674.31%) in > one year
Allocation:   99.4% of portfolio
10 pts


Recent News  
Why you should own gold.  Historically, Gold has been a safe haven in distressed times, during high inflation times, at times when there was distrust of the financial system, and during depressions.  Any of this sound familiar?  This time will be no different.  Recently, gold has been under pressure as hedge funds have scrambled to raise cash unfortunately most hedge funds facing redemptions have had to sell what ever was liquid.  And well Gold is liquid and has performed very well relatively so it has been a major source of cash.  It isn't that they want to sell it they have had to sell it.

Another reason gold has been weak lately is because the dollar has been strong.  In general, gold tends to act poorly in rising dollar environments because gold being an international store of value gets cheaper in dollar terms when the dollar gets strong. 

The dollar has been strong because there is a squeeze on dollars due to all of the maturing dollar denominated debt that is maturing all over the world and isn't being rolled over.  If you have noticed the Fed has been increasing swap lines globally to help this squeeze.  Think of this as the tide going out.  Once the squeeze is over, however, the opposite will be true.  The dollar will get routed and inflation will take a hold in a big way.  You should consider buying gold now because when the dollar breaks, and it will, you will be in good shape.


October 22

Bearish on CAT ...
Newsmonkey
   newsmonkey   10/22/08  

This pick is about: Caterpillar Inc (CAT)
Rating:   Negative   $38.08 (10/22/08)
Gain/Loss:   -53.10% in 410 days
1 pt


sell baby sell. CAT's slump won't turn around anytime soon in this global environment. Emerging markets (which have been CAT's strong sector) will catch up with the US and will likely be even deeper and last longer than the US. Sell baby sell. Great company but wrong market.

+


October 21

Bearish on JOYG ...
Newsmonkey
   newsmonkey   10/21/08  

This pick is about: Joy Global Inc. (JOYG)
Rating:   Negative   $26.73 (10/21/08)
Gain/Loss:   -98.28% in 411 days
1 pt


Sell baby Sell. Better late than never. This stock will do poorly during the weak economy.

+
Related posts:   Bullish on JOYG ...


October 20

sell baby sell
Newsmonkey
   newsmonkey   10/20/08  

This pick is about: The Pep BoysManny Moe & Jack (PBY)
Rating:   Negative   $4.16 (10/20/08)
Gain/Loss:   -111.54% in 412 days
Target:   $1.00 (-75.96%) in Six months
1 pt


Fundamental Analysis  
Move along nothing to see here


MS is no cheap option
Newsmonkey
   newsmonkey   10/20/08  

This pick is about: Morgan Stanley (MS)
Rating:   Negative   $20.17 (10/20/08)
Gain/Loss:   -53.54% in 412 days
Target:   $10.00 (-50.42%) in Six months
2 pts


Fundamental Analysis  
I should be ashamed of myself in my recent about face in MS.  I think it should be sold with the rest of the financial stocks.  Sell baby sell.  And next time I say it is time to buy remind me not to be so stupid.


Goldman Sachs - I don't know what I was thinking
Newsmonkey
   newsmonkey   10/20/08  

This pick is about: Goldman Sachs Group Inc The (GS)
Rating:   Negative   $117.55 (10/20/08)
Gain/Loss:   -42.27% in 412 days
Target:   $100.00 (-14.93%) in Six months
9 pts


Fundamental Analysis  
I too got fooled into thinking it was a good time to buy. Heck how frequently do you get a chance to buy in cheaper than Warren Buffett.  I need to make a note to myself "just because one person wants to throw his money away doesn't mean I should."  Sell baby sell.  Their numbers will be weak and going forward there will be a lot less opportunity for the boys at Government Sachs to make money. Sell baby Sell.

+
Related posts:   Bullish on GS ...


UBS is in as much trouble as the rest
Newsmonkey
   newsmonkey   10/20/08  

This pick is about: UBS AG (UBS)
Rating:   Negative   $15.55 (10/20/08)
Gain/Loss:   -3.41% in 412 days
Target:   $10.00 (-35.69%) in Six months
0 pt


Fundamental Analysis  
Sell baby sell.  There is nothing that is going to unfreeze the markets anytime soon.


American Express
Newsmonkey
   newsmonkey   10/20/08  

This pick is about: American Express Company (AXP)
Rating:   Negative   $23.95 (10/20/08)
Gain/Loss:   -64.09% in 412 days
Target:   $10.00 (-58.25%) in Six months
1 pt


Fundamental Analysis  
I cannot think of a biz that AXP has that will do well.  It won't be travel, It won't be their credit card business.  I am a seller because although I thought a few weeks ago that they may have escaped I was wrong.  I am now sticking to my prior views of sell baby sell. 

+
Related posts:   Bullish on AXP ...


GE - Too much leverage
Newsmonkey
   newsmonkey   10/20/08  

This pick is about: General Electric Company (GE)
Rating:   Negative   $20.26 (10/20/08)
Gain/Loss:   +20.04% in 412 days
Target:   $10.00 (-50.64%) in Six months
10 pts


Fundamental Analysis  
I don't know what I was thinking when I turned and decided it was time to buy GE.  I just figured that with so much money coming into support financials that GE would find the liquidity they need to keep GECC afloat.  So far that just hasn't happened.  Indeed the credit markets are still frozen and even the best companies out there cannot get short term credit.  GE will probably survive ( a month ago I didn't think it would) but it will be a smaller and less profitable GE. 

+


October 12

WHY YOU SHOULD SHORT THE RETAILERS
Newsmonkey
   newsmonkey   10/12/08  

This pick is about: Tiffany & Co. (TIF)
Rating:   Negative   $29.97 (10/12/08)
Gain/Loss:   -38.51% in 420 days
Target:   $14.00 (-53.29%) in > one year
10 pts


Fundamental Analysis  

I am recommending the sell of the retailing sector. Why? The reason is simple, no one is buying anything right now. When was the last time you heard of a friend, neighbor, or colleague bought a new car? I tell you that it is obvious all over America (if not the world) put discretionary spending on perma hold a couple of weeks ago. You can rest assured that there isn't a retailer in America (even Walmart) that will have a great quarter.

Ever since Bush went on prime time consequences..... the retail market has come to a screeching halt that is only slightly less frozen than the credit markets.

Unfortunately, I don't see a quick fix to the credit markets and it certainly isn't going to be forgotten by the Campaign until after November at the earliest. My guess is the economy is going to be in a negative spotlight for a year or more.

Why would you buy the retailers? I say sell baby sell.



WHY YOU SHOULD SHORT THE RETAILERS
Newsmonkey
   newsmonkey   10/12/08  

This pick is about: Costco Wholesale Corp (COST)
Rating:   Negative   $56.1 (10/12/08)
Gain/Loss:   -5.51% in 420 days
Target:   $27.00 (-51.87%) in > one year
10 pts


Fundamental Analysis  

I am recommending the sell of the retailing sector. Why? The reason is simple, no one is buying anything right now. When was the last time you heard of a friend, neighbor, or colleague bought a new car? I tell you that it is obvious all over America (if not the world) put discretionary spending on perma hold a couple of weeks ago. You can rest assured that there isn't a retailer in America (even Walmart) that will have a great quarter.

Ever since Bush went on prime time consequences..... the retail market has come to a screeching halt that is only slightly less frozen than the credit markets.

Unfortunately, I don't see a quick fix to the credit markets and it certainly isn't going to be forgotten by the Campaign until after November at the earliest. My guess is the economy is going to be in a negative spotlight for a year or more.

Why would you buy the retailers? I say sell baby sell.



WHY YOU SHOULD SHORT THE RETAILERS
Newsmonkey
   newsmonkey   10/12/08  

This pick is about: Nordstrom Inc (JWN)
Rating:   Negative   $19.55 (10/12/08)
Gain/Loss:   -80.26% in 420 days
Target:   $9.00 (-53.96%) in > one year
10 pts


Fundamental Analysis  

I am recommending the sell of the retailing sector. Why? The reason is simple, no one is buying anything right now. When was the last time you heard of a friend, neighbor, or colleague bought a new car? I tell you that it is obvious all over America (if not the world) put discretionary spending on perma hold a couple of weeks ago. You can rest assured that there isn't a retailer in America (even Walmart) that will have a great quarter.

Ever since Bush went on prime time consequences..... the retail market has come to a screeching halt that is only slightly less frozen than the credit markets.

Unfortunately, I don't see a quick fix to the credit markets and it certainly isn't going to be forgotten by the Campaign until after November at the earliest. My guess is the economy is going to be in a negative spotlight for a year or more.

Why would you buy the retailers? I say sell baby sell.



WHY YOU SHOULD SHORT THE RETAILERS
Newsmonkey
   newsmonkey   10/12/08  

This pick is about: Kohl's Corp. (KSS)
Rating:   Negative   $33.47 (10/12/08)
Gain/Loss:   -60.44% in 420 days
Target:   $16.00 (-52.20%) in > one year
10 pts


Fundamental Analysis  

I am recommending the sell of the retailing sector. Why? The reason is simple, no one is buying anything right now. When was the last time you heard of a friend, neighbor, or colleague bought a new car? I tell you that it is obvious all over America (if not the world) put discretionary spending on perma hold a couple of weeks ago. You can rest assured that there isn't a retailer in America (even Walmart) that will have a great quarter.

Ever since Bush went on prime time consequences..... the retail market has come to a screeching halt that is only slightly less frozen than the credit markets.

Unfortunately, I don't see a quick fix to the credit markets and it certainly isn't going to be forgotten by the Campaign until after November at the earliest. My guess is the economy is going to be in a negative spotlight for a year or more.

Why would you buy the retailers? I say sell baby sell.


+


WHY YOU SHOULD SHORT THE RETAILERS
Newsmonkey
   newsmonkey   10/12/08  

This pick is about: Ltd Brands Inc (LTD)
Rating:   Negative   $13.98 (10/12/08)
Gain/Loss:   -31.04% in 420 days
Target:   $7.00 (-49.93%) in > one year
10 pts


Fundamental Analysis  

I am recommending the sell of the retailing sector. Why? The reason is simple, no one is buying anything right now. When was the last time you heard of a friend, neighbor, or colleague bought a new car? I tell you that it is obvious all over America (if not the world) put discretionary spending on perma hold a couple of weeks ago. You can rest assured that there isn't a retailer in America (even Walmart) that will have a great quarter.

Ever since Bush went on prime time consequences..... the retail market has come to a screeching halt that is only slightly less frozen than the credit markets.

Unfortunately, I don't see a quick fix to the credit markets and it certainly isn't going to be forgotten by the Campaign until after November at the earliest. My guess is the economy is going to be in a negative spotlight for a year or more.

Why would you buy the retailers? I say sell baby sell.



WHY YOU SHOULD SHORT THE RETAILERS
Newsmonkey
   newsmonkey   10/12/08  

This pick is about: Ann Taylor Stores Corp. (ANN)
Rating:   Negative   $16.65 (10/12/08)
Gain/Loss:   +7.75% in 420 days
Target:   $8.00 (-51.95%) in > one year
10 pts


Fundamental Analysis  

I am recommending the sell of the retailing sector. Why? The reason is simple, no one is buying anything right now. When was the last time you heard of a friend, neighbor, or colleague bought a new car? I tell you that it is obvious all over America (if not the world) put discretionary spending on perma hold a couple of weeks ago. You can rest assured that there isn't a retailer in America (even Walmart) that will have a great quarter.

Ever since Bush went on prime time consequences..... the retail market has come to a screeching halt that is only slightly less frozen than the credit markets.

Unfortunately, I don't see a quick fix to the credit markets and it certainly isn't going to be forgotten by the Campaign until after November at the earliest. My guess is the economy is going to be in a negative spotlight for a year or more.

Why would you buy the retailers? I say sell baby sell.



WHY YOU SHOULD SHORT THE RETAILERS
Newsmonkey
   newsmonkey   10/12/08  

This pick is about: AMERICAN EAGLE OUTFITTERS INC (AEO)
Rating:   Negative   $11.02 (10/12/08)
Gain/Loss:   -44.28% in 420 days
Target:   $5.00 (-54.63%) in > one year
10 pts


Fundamental Analysis  

I am recommending the sell of the retailing sector. Why? The reason is simple, no one is buying anything right now. When was the last time you heard of a friend, neighbor, or colleague bought a new car? I tell you that it is obvious all over America (if not the world) put discretionary spending on perma hold a couple of weeks ago. You can rest assured that there isn't a retailer in America (even Walmart) that will have a great quarter.

Ever since Bush went on prime time consequences..... the retail market has come to a screeching halt that is only slightly less frozen than the credit markets.

Unfortunately, I don't see a quick fix to the credit markets and it certainly isn't going to be forgotten by the Campaign until after November at the earliest. My guess is the economy is going to be in a negative spotlight for a year or more.

Why would you buy the retailers? I say sell baby sell.


+
Related posts:   Bullish on AEO ...


WHY YOU SHOULD SHORT THE RETAILERS
Newsmonkey
   newsmonkey   10/12/08  

This pick is about: Best Buy Co Inc (BBY)
Rating:   Negative   $27.21 (10/12/08)
Gain/Loss:   -60.93% in 420 days
Target:   $12.00 (-55.90%) in > one year
10 pts


Fundamental Analysis  

I am recommending the sell of the retailing sector. Why? The reason is simple, no one is buying anything right now. When was the last time you heard of a friend, neighbor, or colleague bought a new car? I tell you that it is obvious all over America (if not the world) put discretionary spending on perma hold a couple of weeks ago. You can rest assured that there isn't a retailer in America (even Walmart) that will have a great quarter.

Ever since Bush went on prime time consequences..... the retail market has come to a screeching halt that is only slightly less frozen than the credit markets.

Unfortunately, I don't see a quick fix to the credit markets and it certainly isn't going to be forgotten by the Campaign until after November at the earliest. My guess is the economy is going to be in a negative spotlight for a year or more.

Why would you buy the retailers? I say sell baby sell.



WHY YOU SHOULD SHORT THE RETAILERS
Newsmonkey
   newsmonkey   10/12/08  

This pick is about: Saks Inc. (SKS)
Rating:   Negative   $6.3 (10/12/08)
Gain/Loss:   +5.40% in 420 days
Target:   $3.00 (-52.38%) in > one year
10 pts


Fundamental Analysis  

I am recommending the sell of the retailing sector. Why? The reason is simple, no one is buying anything right now. When was the last time you heard of a friend, neighbor, or colleague bought a new car? I tell you that it is obvious all over America (if not the world) put discretionary spending on perma hold a couple of weeks ago. You can rest assured that there isn't a retailer in America (even Walmart) that will have a great quarter.

Ever since Bush went on prime time consequences..... the retail market has come to a screeching halt that is only slightly less frozen than the credit markets.

Unfortunately, I don't see a quick fix to the credit markets and it certainly isn't going to be forgotten by the Campaign until after November at the earliest. My guess is the economy is going to be in a negative spotlight for a year or more.

Why would you buy the retailers? I say sell baby sell.


+


WHY YOU SHOULD SHORT THE RETAILERS
Newsmonkey
   newsmonkey   10/12/08  

This pick is about: Abercrombie & Fitch Co (ANF)
Rating:   Negative   $28.4 (10/12/08)
Gain/Loss:   -27.22% in 420 days
Target:   $13.00 (-54.23%) in > one year
10 pts


Fundamental Analysis  

I am recommending the sell of the retailing sector. Why? The reason is simple, no one is buying anything right now. When was the last time you heard of a friend, neighbor, or colleague bought a new car? I tell you that it is obvious all over America (if not the world) put discretionary spending on perma hold a couple of weeks ago. You can rest assured that there isn't a retailer in America (even Walmart) that will have a great quarter.

Ever since Bush went on prime time consequences..... the retail market has come to a screeching halt that is only slightly less frozen than the credit markets.

Unfortunately, I don't see a quick fix to the credit markets and it certainly isn't going to be forgotten by the Campaign until after November at the earliest. My guess is the economy is going to be in a negative spotlight for a year or more.

Why would you buy the retailers? I say sell baby sell.



WHY YOU SHOULD SHORT THE RETAILERS
Newsmonkey
   newsmonkey   10/12/08  

This pick is about: TJX COMPANIES INC. (TJX)
Rating:   Negative   $27.07 (10/12/08)
Gain/Loss:   -34.58% in 420 days
Target:   $12.00 (-55.67%) in > one year
10 pts


Fundamental Analysis  

I am recommending the sell of the retailing sector. Why? The reason is simple, no one is buying anything right now. When was the last time you heard of a friend, neighbor, or colleague bought a new car? I tell you that it is obvious all over America (if not the world) put discretionary spending on perma hold a couple of weeks ago. You can rest assured that there isn't a retailer in America (even Walmart) that will have a great quarter.

Ever since Bush went on prime time consequences..... the retail market has come to a screeching halt that is only slightly less frozen than the credit markets.

Unfortunately, I don't see a quick fix to the credit markets and it certainly isn't going to be forgotten by the Campaign until after November at the earliest. My guess is the economy is going to be in a negative spotlight for a year or more.

Why would you buy the retailers? I say sell baby sell.



 
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Investment Style:
Aggressive  [?]

Avg exp holding time:
171.70 days

Age:
40's

Occupation:
Professional investor


About Me:
25 years of professional investment experience specializing in value and event driven securities.




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