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Picks Performance:
Outperforms
75%
of community
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All-time Return
+9.24%
(in over 2 years)
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Risk (SD)
Aggressive
0.00%
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Sharpe Ratio
-0.33
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Followers
20
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Winning Picks
28
of
54
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Total Views
23601
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View:
Shared Picks (Quick)
/ (Detailed)
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Personal Portfolio
June 02
Only if the market holds up
This pick is about: Himax Technologies Inc. (HIMX)
| Rating: |
$5.5 (06/02/08)
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| Gain/Loss: |
-47.64%
in
551 days
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| Target: |
$7.25
(+31.82%)
in Three months
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They have things I look for. 1. Zero debt. 2. ROE- 28% 3. PEG- .4 4. quarterly revenue growth- 25% 5. quarterly earnings growth- 89% 6. Operating Cash Flow- $105.25 million
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May 14
Possible Short Term 40% Winner
This pick is about: Yingli Green Energy Holding Company Ltd. (YGE)
| Rating: |
$27.19 (05/14/08)
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| Gain/Loss: |
-43.69%
in
570 days
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| Target: |
$39.00
(+43.44%)
in Three months
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EPS for 2008 est= $6.50 P/E= 4 EPS for 2009 est= $13.52 P/E= 2 Are you kidding me? It is a Chinese Sloar play and is poised to go through the roof. Do we not trust the Chinese financials that much...even if they earn one third of their estimations this stock is EXTREMELY under valued. Look for this company to EXPLODE First Solar-esque! I love it to $39 for a quick 44% but I'll hold half for a long term move. If the move occurs I'll add to that postion for some BIG GAINS! Yingli Green Energy Holding Company Limited and its subsidiaries engage in the design, development, marketing, manufacturing, installation, and sale of photovoltaic (PV) products. Its products include PV modules, integrated PV systems, multicrystalline polysilicon ingots and wafers, and PV cells. The company sells its PV modules under Yingli brand name primarily to installers, PV system integrators, property developers, distributors, and other value-added resellers principally in China, as well as in Germany, Spain, Italy, and the United States. It also sells PV systems to mobile communications service providers in China. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Baoding, the People's Republic of China
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May 13
Initial coverage established
This pick is about: Digital Ally Inc. (DGLY)
| Rating: |
$9.73 (05/13/08)
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| Gain/Loss: |
-78.31%
in
571 days
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| Target: |
$18.00
(+84.99%)
in > one year
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Source Capital Group, Inc. May 13, 2008 DIGITAL ALLY, Inc. (NASDAQ:DGLY- $9.50) INITIATE COVERAGE - BUY RECOMMENDATION 12-Month Price Target = $18.00 For Research Disclosures . See Page 10 DIGITAL ALLY REPORTS OUTSTANDING QUARTER Digital Ally, Inc. (.Digital Ally. or the .Company.) recently reported operating results for its first quarter of FY08 ending March 31. Revenue was up 150% from the same quarter of the prior year and reflected a 22% sequential increase for Q407. With improving supply chain performance, gross margins increased to 61.9% in Q108 from 60.3% in Q107 and 57.8% in Q407. The result was diluted EPS of $0.10 for the quarter vs. $0.01 for Q107. In its press release announcing the quarter results the Company guided toward revenue of $40 million for FY08, more than double its FY07 results. NEW PRODUCT . EXPANDED MARKET Digital Ally entered the law enforcement market in 2006 with the introduction of its DVM-500 In-Car Digital Rearview Mirror System. On May 1, 2008 the Company introduced the DVM-250 Pro, a lower priced event recorder aimed at the broader transportation market. Event recorders automatically record and store video and audio from outside and inside of vehicles and are used by taxicabs, limousines, school buses, transit buses, delivery vehicles, utility company vehicles and even personal vehicles. The DVM-250 Pro constantly records a 30-second loop and in the case of a sudden change in speed, sudden stop, or other violent maneuver the recording continues providing video and sound record of the event. These recordings can be used for driver training, personal protection and monitoring as well as protection against liability workman.s compensation claims in the event of an accident. The DVM-250 Pro is aimed at a general market that is several times larger than the approximately 450,000 law enforcement vehicles in use in the United States. COMPANY PREPARES FOR CONTINUED GROWTH In addition to the recent new product introduction, Digital Ally increased the size of its production/assembly facility in the first quarter of 2008 to accommodate an anticipated expansion in product shipments. The Company also reported that it more than tripled research and development expenses from Q107 as it targets new market opportunities. Products include extensions of current products as well as new products. CURRENT CAPITALIZATION AND CASH FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT EXPANSION Digital Ally ended Q1 with approximately $4.9 million in cash, nearly $10 million in current assets and no debt. For the year ended December 31, 2007 the Company generated $4.8 million cash from operations and spent only $563K on capital expenditures. The Company does not have to spend significant capital dollars for production, since most of the production is outsourced and assembly takes place at the Company.s Kansas facilities. In this regard there should be minimal dilution of current shareholders from capital raises to meet the projections we have prepared. ESTIMATE OF FINANCIAL RESULTS : (FY ends 12/31) (Dollar amounts in Thousands . Except EPS) Year A Qtr A Qtr E Qtr E Qtr E Year E Year E 2007 3/31/08 6/30/08 9/31/08 12/31/08 2008 2009 Revenue $19,391 $8,601 $9,461 $10,407 $11,656 $40,125 $76,238 Net Income $ 4,523 $1,676 $1,929 $ 2,191 $ 2,457 $ 8,523 $15,525 Earnings/Share $ 0.28 $ 0.10 $ 0.11 $ 0.12 $ 0.14 $ 0.46 $ 0.82
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May 09
we have rampant spec. going on
This pick is about: Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG)
| Rating: |
$113.76 (05/09/08)
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| Gain/Loss: |
-69.85%
in
575 days
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| Target: |
$140.00
(+23.07%)
in Three months
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Don't fight the trend. Oil will lead the world into the next global depression. This is imminent to take place over the next decade.
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April 01
Another stock for the next Bull Market
This pick is about: Semtech Corp. (SMTC)
| Rating: |
$14.3 (04/01/08)
|
| Gain/Loss: |
+14.83%
in
613 days
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| Target: |
$20.00
(+39.86%)
in Six months
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If you follow my picks you know I am Bearish. That being said I am finding some winners. Be ready for the next market turn... find the winners! SMTC appears to be a winner. A beautiful trend reversal has been taking place since early Feb. I like it all the way to 20 with some consolidation occurring around 17. I have a stop at $13.35.
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Looking for winners
This pick is about: IIVI Inc. (IIVI)
| Rating: |
$38.29 (04/01/08)
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| Gain/Loss: |
-24.13%
in
613 days
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| Target: |
$52.00
(+35.81%)
in Six months
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Here is a good stock for a bad market. Let me make this clear, I am still very bearish on the market as a whole. I am holding several ETF's that short certain markets. Although, of late, I have been finding more stocks that fit my trading style. Stocks that hold up or even show an increase in share price during a bad market can possibly be the new leaders in the next Bull market. This is the best reason to not look for shorts only during these down times. You can find some great stocks...let's face it, it is slim pickings so these times are easier to follow the leaders. IIVI has been moving higher since mid-Jan. I see some consolidation around $36 but I will not be risking a big move if the markets go bullish. I am in with a stop around 34.
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March 19
Looking for stocks that have been steady winners!
This pick is about: Axsys Technologies Inc. (AXYS)
| Rating: |
$47.68 (03/19/08)
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| Gain/Loss: |
n/a
in
626 days
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| Target: |
$62.00
(+30.03%)
in Three months
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These Homeland Security stocks have been going up. This stock looks like a great break out opportunity. There has been huge accumulation days over the past 6 months. The last B.O. went from 38 to 48 in 3 days... then the typical snap back because the move was to fast. This latest move will need to go slower to be able to be maintained but either way it is going up. A $62 dollar sellout will catch you about 30% from these levels... not bad for this bear market! My stop is at $44 going up $.75 every week as as trailing stop.
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February 18
Break out poised for $12.05
This pick is about: GUSHMAN ENVIRONMENTAL ENERGY Ltd. (GU)
| Rating: |
$12.06 (02/18/08)
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| Gain/Loss: |
-89.39%
in
656 days
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| Target: |
$22.00
(+82.42%)
in > one year
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Let's look at the numbers: GU plans to make $1.24 in '07 (reporting this month) GU plans to make $1.86 in '08 (for an yoy growth of 50%) The stock is priced at $11.50 for a P/E of 9 on the est of $1.24 (is this P/E low for a 50% growth rate?) Conclusion the earnings report is critical to show that this company can do what it says but if it can the price will jump very fast. NOW BEHIND THE NUMBERS: GU just opened a new plant adding 50,000 tons to the company's annual biodiesel production capacity for a total of 240,000 tons (that's up 26%). Annual capacity of the Beijing plant is expected to increase to 100,000 tons in the fourth quarter of 2008 when additional expansion is completed. Gu then plans to increase their annual production capacity to 400,000 tons by the end of 2008 with the expansion or addition of new production facilities in Beijing,Shanghai, Hunan and Chongqing. The end of '07 capacity was 190,000 tons, the estimated capacity for end of '08 is 400,000 tons (that's 111% growth in capacity!) Hopefully, GU will have unbelievable demand and will be able to continue to operate at full capacity at year end of '08. All China plays have inherent risk. GU must deliver what it says it can and it's shares will be rewarded greatly!
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November 20
gold will continue to rise
This pick is about: Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
| Rating: |
$47.9 (11/20/07)
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| Gain/Loss: |
+11.75%
in
746 days
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| Target: |
$62.00
(+29.44%)
in Three months
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We are witnessing a dual economy. At home, (because of the housing market) our economy will be entering a recession. Globally, the economy is booming still, and actually experiencing inflation. Oil will continue to rise and so will gold. This is a fairly short term play to 62 but you could stay long gold for as long as oil rises and the dollar falls.
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September 11
Bearish on AAPL ...
This pick is about: Apple Computer Inc (AAPL)
| Rating: |
$135.99001 (09/11/07)
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| Closed: |
11/21/2008
@ $85.21
(+37.34%
in
437 days)
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| Target: |
$105.00
(-22.79%)
in Three months
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May 16
Head and shoulders/ Topping Pattern
This pick is about: MEMC Electronic Materials Inc (WFR)
| Rating: |
$72.58 (05/16/08)
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| Closed: |
11/21/2008
@ $11.75
(+83.81%
in
189 days)
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| Target: |
$50.00
(-31.11%)
in Three months
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If this baby gets below 61 look out!
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May 09
It is a global market
This pick is about: PROSHARES US FTSE/XI (FXP)
| Rating: |
$68.99 (05/09/08)
|
| Closed: |
11/21/2008
@ $65.05
(-5.71%
in
196 days)
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| Target: |
$80.00
(+15.96%)
in Three months
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When the U.S. sneezes the world catches a cold...
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Bear market round 2.
This pick is about: UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW)
| Rating: |
$58.79 (05/09/08)
|
| Closed: |
11/21/2008
@ $132.03999
(+124.60%
in
196 days)
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| Target: |
$72.00
(+22.47%)
in Three months
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We have run too far too fast... time to retest thoughs low's.
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Bear Market Round 2
This pick is about: UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG)
| Rating: |
$60.75 (05/09/08)
|
| Closed: |
11/21/2008
@ $176.48
(+190.50%
in
196 days)
|
| Target: |
$72.00
(+18.52%)
in Three months
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Semis are extremely over bought...looking to short the big guys.
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Bear market round 2
This pick is about: UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID)
| Rating: |
$40.81 (05/09/08)
|
| Closed: |
11/21/2008
@ $86.47
(+111.88%
in
196 days)
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| Target: |
$50.00
(+22.52%)
in Three months
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We are going down, down, down. Just looking for a catalyst.
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April 17
BREAK OUT!!!
This pick is about: Digital Ally Inc. (DGLY)
| Rating: |
$8.82 (04/17/08)
|
| Closed: |
05/13/2008
@ $9.73
(+10.32%
in
26 days)
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Break out point=$7.5 Short Term (1-2 weeks)= $9.5 Mid Term (2-3 months=$12 Long Term (9-15 months)=$18 Some recent news: Digital Ally, Inc. Anticipates 150% Increase in First Quarter Revenue to Over $8.6 Million
Thursday April 10, 8:30 am ET EIGHTH CONSECUTIVE INCREASE IN QUARTERLY REVENUE CUSTOMER BASE NOW INCLUDES OVER 1,700 LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES IN 50 STATES AND 12 COUNTRIES
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Update 04/26:
RJ Falkner recently reports: "Based upon our $35-$40 million revenue estimate for 2008, we believe pretax profit margins can exceed 27% of sales. Assuming a 40% income tax rate and 17.5 million diluted shares outstanding, we now estimate that diluted EPS (fully-taxed) can reach $0.35-$0.40 in the year ending December 31, 2008." Now this sounds great right! Yes, but it gets better. Last year RJ Falkner underestimated the sales of DGLY by over 20%! Now is this of any fault to RJ Falkner, absolutely not. DGLY is growing at a extremely rapid pace. RJ Falkner also estimated an earnings of .12- .15 for 2007 but again these numbers were grossly undervalued. DGLY earned a diluted .28 for 2007 on 19.4 million in sales. The stock topped the year out at about $7.50 on .26 EPS for 2007 or a P/E of 27. RJ Falkner calls for earnings of .40 for 2008. Keeping the same P/E would put the stock at $10.80. BUT we all know about RJ Falkner's rather un-aggressive expectations. If sales are going to double as predicted by DGLY, could earnings double too? Sounds logical right? Well, .56 for 2008 sounds very reasonable. Keeping the P/E of 27 for our target and adding a fiscal 2008 of .56 per share, my 12 month target for DGLY is $15. Let's hope they blow away all expectations and prove my estimations as grossly undervalued as RJ Falkner's!
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March 19
going with what has been working!
This pick is about: Digital Ally Inc. (DGLY)
| Rating: |
$5.8 (03/19/08)
|
| Closed: |
04/17/2008
@ $8.82
(+52.07%
in
29 days)
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| Target: |
$10.00
(+72.41%)
in Three months
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Digital Ally (DGLY) has been basing for the past 11 weeks. Prior to this it was up 5X in just 10 months. I really like the setup with a close stop at $6.40. This equals about an 8% loss not unreasonable for a huge potential gain.
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April 06
Bearish on SPY ...
This pick is about: SPDRs (SPY)
| Rating: |
$136.87 (04/06/08)
|
| Closed: |
04/17/2008
@ $136.8
(+0.05%
in
11 days)
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The S&P is in a strong down trend. I am inclined to follow the trend until proven otherwise. I am not saying you are wrong but just not agreeing with with you yet.
The S&P is at the top of the trough and causing major confindence of a turn around. This leads me to believe the opposite.
We will see which outcome is right. 1475 will cause me to change my mind. Good luck.
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November 13
Bad market...great stock
This pick is about: UltraShort SmallCap600 ProShares (SDD)
| Rating: |
$72.3 (11/13/07)
|
| Closed: |
04/17/2008
@ $73.9
(+2.21%
in
156 days)
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| Target: |
$100.00
(+38.31%)
in Six months
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This ETF is a little more risky than the others. SmallCaps will be the first to turn when the market gets better. The market is sick right now though; shorts will rule for a while.
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Semis lead the charge this year...their time is up.
This pick is about: UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG)
| Rating: |
$59.17 (11/13/07)
|
| Closed: |
04/17/2008
@ $67.61
(+14.26%
in
156 days)
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| Target: |
$100.00
(+69.00%)
in Six months
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Another ETF that while make you money in the bear market to come.
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February 05
russell 2000 has rallied but
This pick is about: UltraShort Russell2000 ProShares (TWM)
| Rating: |
$80.35 (02/05/08)
|
| Closed: |
04/17/2008
@ $76.41
(-4.90%
in
72 days)
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| Target: |
$95.00
(+18.23%)
in Three months
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Time for a pullback in the russell 2000. This ETF is an ultra short of that index. There is major resistence at 735 on the russell. Expect some sideways movement but an eventual retest of the bottom around 650-660. At that point I will be selling TWM and letting the market tell me how it will act off this new ressitence point. If it rallies I will get very bullish if not... I particularly like to force myself into watching this index closest during market downturns, as the russell will be the first to show strength and carry us out of the Bear market.
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November 09
This ETF will follow the new market trend...SELL TECH!
This pick is about: UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW)
| Rating: |
$58.0 (11/09/07)
|
| Closed: |
04/17/2008
@ $66.17
(+14.09%
in
160 days)
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It is time for tech stocks to take a dive...the leaders are breakinking down. As the rest of the market was selling off everyone was saying to buy the techs but they were getting out during this buying frenzy. Now the average Joe is left holding the pain as usual. Be smart and make some money on the down turn. Goog, Rimm, Aapl... and so on are great companies but the market rules. Follow the leaders don't fall in love with them.
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September 11
Bearish on GOOG ...
This pick is about: Google Inc (GOOG)
| Rating: |
$520.53003 (09/11/07)
|
| Closed: |
04/17/2008
@ $452.92001
(+12.99%
in
219 days)
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| Target: |
$465.00
(-10.67%)
in Three months
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all of the old leaders must take a break
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December 11
My favorite stock of the year
This pick is about: ON Semiconductor Corp. (ONNN)
| Rating: |
$9.02 (12/11/07)
|
| Closed: |
04/01/2008
@ $5.85
(-35.14%
in
112 days)
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| Target: |
$13.00
(+44.12%)
in Three months
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I see three distinct buy points on this three year chart. 1. April '05, $3- The 10 WMA crosses the 50 WMA to the downside (oversold indicator), the MACD starts its bottoming out trend, and it hits the trend line forming all the bottoms 2. July '06, $5- The 10 WMA crosses the 50 WMA to the downside again, the MACD starts its bottoming out trend again, and it hits the trend line forming all the bottoms 3. Nov '07, $8- The 10 WMA crosses the 50 WMA, the MACD has bottomed, and it hit that trend line I am very short term bullish on this market (until early '08). So this trade will be made with special care (very tight stops). If it does break it will go to $13 before the market tops (most likely corresponding with the overall market turn). This will form a double top for ONNN and most likely some selling and consolidation during the Bear. We will see. Good luck.
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December 06
trying new stock screens
This pick is about: Universal Insurance Holdings (UVE)
| Rating: |
$7.0 (12/06/07)
|
| Closed: |
04/01/2008
@ $3.85
(-45.00%
in
117 days)
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| Target: |
$12.00
(+71.43%)
in Three months
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this little gem also has a great dividend
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February 11
buy with a close stop/loss
This pick is about: ShengdaTech Inc. (SDTH)
| Rating: |
$14.0 (02/11/08)
|
| Closed: |
02/15/2008
@ $13.4
(-4.29%
in
4 days)
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| Target: |
$20.00
(+42.86%)
in Six months
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Buy now for a possible breakout at 14.15. If no breakout occurs get out until it does but it will fly after the breakout.
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Update 02/11:
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Excellent performance so far! I will adding shares at a couple different buy points from here. I like 14.40, 15.05, 15.65 as my buy points. I will also be raising my stop/loss throughout the move. Right now it is at 13.85. I'll keep you posted on this as I raise it further.
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January 14
this is another great fertilizer company
This pick is about: Terra Nitrogen Company L.P. Depositary Receipts Evidencing Common Units Represe (TNH)
| Rating: |
$163.00999 (01/14/08)
|
| Closed: |
02/05/2008
@ $139.42
(-14.47%
in
22 days)
|
| Target: |
$250.00
(+53.36%)
in Six months
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After doing some serious homework in the AG's ( one of the greatest industries lately), TNH seems like a better play than MOS. Initially, I expected these stocks to take a break and even reverse to the downside. Boy, was I wrong! I cut my losses quickly and went long right a way. What I failed to realize was how these companies are not only tied to the ethonal play but also the weakness in the dollar helps this global corp. Check out these fundamentals: | Profit Margin (ttm): | 27.91% | | Return on Equity (ttm): | 98.08% | | Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy): | 44.70% | | Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy): | 232.40% | | % Held by Insiders 1 : | 75.07% | | 5 Year Average Dividend Yield 4 : | 8.00% |
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December 04
i was wrong on the ag's
This pick is about: Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. (POT)
| Rating: |
$123.56 (12/04/07)
|
| Closed: |
02/05/2008
@ $143.98
(+16.53%
in
63 days)
|
| Target: |
$140.00
(+13.31%)
in Three months
|
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looking to make some money on the long side to offset my loses on this terrible short... these stocks were strong on a down day...the bear is still here but these companies will buck the trend for a while.
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i was wrong about this one
This pick is about: Mosaic Company The (MOS)
| Rating: |
$72.46 (12/04/07)
|
| Closed: |
02/05/2008
@ $98.99
(+36.61%
in
63 days)
|
| Target: |
$85.00
(+17.31%)
in One month
|
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looking to make some on this one just to cover my loses on the short side
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More about Jamie Connor
Investment Style:
Aggressive
[?]
The investor is willing to take risks to achieve high returns from portfolio. Investor's holding consists of speculative stocks that will produce massive gains or losses and/or the trading strategy is focused more on short term profits rather than long term appreciation
Avg exp holding time:
174.93 days
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Age:
30's
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Occupation:
stock picker/entrepreneur
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Location:
New Jersey
|
Website:
www.movingforwardrentals.com
About Me:
30 something that has loved the stock market since the mid-90s. I have been totally self taught. I
... more
30 something that has loved the stock market since the mid-90s. I have been totally self taught. I watch CNBC and Bloomberg religiously. I have read several books on all aspects of securities investing. The key is to have the guts to go against conventional beliefs and take your profits when you can!
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