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 ferdfund     Graphic_subscribe   

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    Community Rank: Analyst (195 pts)  |  Member since 07/17/2007
Picks Performance:
Outperforms
21%
of community

All-time Return
-19.25%
(in over 2 years)
Risk (SD)
Moderate
0.00%
Sharpe Ratio
-28.63
Followers
1
Winning Picks
2 of 10
Total Views
6895

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June 11

   ferdfund   06/11/08  

This pick is about: CF Industries Holdings Inc. (CF)
Rating:   Positive   $153.99001 (06/11/08)
Gain/Loss:   -42.50% in 543 days
0 pt


   ferdfund   06/11/08  

This pick is about: Terra Industries Inc. (TRA)
Rating:   Positive   $48.15 (06/11/08)
Gain/Loss:   -18.90% in 543 days
0 pt


June 06

   ferdfund   06/06/08  

This pick is about: Select Sector SPDRFinancial (XLF)
Rating:   Positive   $23.37 (06/06/08)
Gain/Loss:   -37.40% in 548 days
Target:   in > one year
0 pt


May 27

An Airline
   ferdfund   05/27/08  

This pick is about: Pinnacle Airlines Corp. (PNCL)
Rating:   Positive   $6.75 (05/27/08)
Gain/Loss:   +11.56% in 558 days
8 pts


I had read about this a few months ago and have been watching it from 11 to now $6.5.  Insiders are buying at this price and in large amounts at market (an indicator I always like).  This regional carrier is an outsource for the majors and as such sign long term contracts regardless of passenger utilization they get paid.  I do worry about fuel, and am looking into how they handle their fuel hedging.  Also the pilot contract issue could be important.  Overall for 5 years into the future cash flow and profits should increase as it makes less and less sense for large planes to make flights.


April 29

   ferdfund   04/29/08  

This pick is about: Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.B)
Rating:   Positive   $4374.0 (04/29/08)
Gain/Loss:   n/a in 586 days
0 pt


April 23

ETN for Commodities
   ferdfund   04/23/08  

This pick is about: Barclays Bank PLC iPath Exchanged Traded Notes due June 12 2036 Linked to Dow J (DJP)
Rating:   Positive   $65.56 (04/23/08)
Gain/Loss:   -37.84% in 592 days
Target:   in > one year
8 pts


I do not understand how to value a commodity.  Supply/Demand, hedging, speculation, etc. are factors that determine a price or a commodity.  I do feel that the trend of commodity and agriculture goods use will continue to increase.  I see only higher demand for these goods as more and more people are able to attain them.  As such, I have watched this ETN since $60.   I feel that this index ETN with agriculture, metals, energy, etc. is a way to diversify into this sector.  However, I do feel that there is risk as to timing and bubblishness at the current time.  I am entering this with a limited amount of funds to see what actions the FED will persue in the next few months.  The fee (.75 basis points) is tied for the lowest of the commodities ETNs. 


Update 05/15:
I recently saw reports that Brazil had a reserve discovery of 40% and that the US has made a discovery in LA that adds 50% to our reserves.  Oil and commodities will hurt this pick if this starts to be reflected into prices and some speculation comes out of the market.


April 15

   ferdfund   04/15/08  

This pick is about: Huntington Bancshares Inc. (HBAN)
Rating:   Positive   $9.1 (04/15/08)
Gain/Loss:   -59.45% in 600 days
Target:   $14.00 (+53.85%) in > one year
0 pt


April 13

ETF for 20 years
   ferdfund   04/13/08  

This pick is about: Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF (VWO)
Rating:   Positive   $48.44 (04/13/08)
Gain/Loss:   -14.43% in 602 days
6 pts


I like this ETF because of its exposure and low expense fees.  It is a passive way to get exposure to China, HK, Brazil, etc.  I feel that growth outside of the US will be greater in real terms on average over the next 20 years.  This is also excellent for people unable to amass $2500 to $5000 to purchase shares in an emerging mkts index fund. 

Like Warren Buffet said in his latest annual letter, if the US mkt grows at the rate is has over the 20th century (5.3%) the Dow will be at 2,000,000 by the end of this century and at a 10% growth it will be at 24,000,000.  I do not think that the US can grow at those rates per annum for the century and I think that this ETF is a good way to get exposure with little effort and energy try to understand political, currency, foreign economic and foreign business risk associated with each respective country.



   ferdfund   04/13/08  

This pick is about: Apple Computer Inc (AAPL)
Rating:   Positive   $146.66 (04/13/08)
Gain/Loss:   +31.82% in 602 days
0 pt


   ferdfund   04/13/08  

This pick is about: Kansas City Southern (KSU)
Rating:   Positive   $39.59 (04/13/08)
Gain/Loss:   -25.33% in 602 days
0 pt


 
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Investment Style:
Moderate  [?]

Avg exp holding time:
527.45 days





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