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Personal Portfolio
September 13
A NordiCaps Region Index
This pick is about: iShares S&P Europe 350 Index Fund (IEV)
| Rating: |
$41.11 (09/13/08)
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| Gain/Loss: |
+2.68%
in
449 days
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Top 10 Rated Nordic Companies  Nordic Region: Stats for All 116 & Top 40 Companies  Nordic Region: Breakdown by Country  As evidence of commercial interest in developing an ETF for the Nordic region, Global X Management has recently filed for such a product, based on the FTSE Nordic 30 Index . The Global X filing specifies that, "The underlying index tracks the performance of the 30 largest and most liquid companies in Sweden, Denmark, Norway, and Finland. The Adviser uses a passive or indexing approach to try to achieve the Fund’s investment objective." In contrast, my NordiCaps Top 40 Rated ETF proposal is a semi-active fund with quarterly rebalancing among all companies in Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Iceland, and Finland with market caps over $1 billion U.S. Dollars. Currently, 116 companies qualify for the index with only the top 40 rated stock selected as equally-weighted, active constituents. Just 14 of the top 40 rated and three of the top 10 rated companies in my NordiCaps ETF proposal are also included in the FTSE 30 Nordic Index, offering investors exposure to a wider variety of companies beyond the 30 largest and most liquid in Scandinavia. Both the top 40 rated and all 116 companies in my NordiCaps Region Index have fared better over the past year than the closest benchmark fund on the market, iShares Sweden ETF (EWD). Only the top 40 rated companies fared better than European benchmark ETFs such as iShares S&P Europe 350 (IEV), PowerShares Europe Small-Mid Caps (PWD), and Vanguard European Stock (VGK). Among the top 10 rated Nordic companies, only Novo Nordisk (NVO) and StatoilHydro (STO) have their stocks listed on U.S. exchanges while just six of the 116 companies maintain U.S. listings, which is another potential benefit of an ETF for Scandinavia by providing access to the region.
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A NordiCaps Region Index
This pick is about: PowerShares FTSE RAFI Europe SmallMid Portfolio (PWD)
| Rating: |
$16.72 (09/13/08)
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| Gain/Loss: |
+24.88%
in
449 days
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Top 10 Rated Nordic Companies Nordic Region: Stats for All 116 & Top 40 Companies Nordic Region: Breakdown by Country As evidence of commercial interest in developing an ETF for the Nordic region, Global X Management has recently filed for such a product, based on the FTSE Nordic 30 Index . The Global X filing specifies that, "The underlying index tracks the performance of the 30 largest and most liquid companies in Sweden, Denmark, Norway, and Finland. The Adviser uses a passive or indexing approach to try to achieve the Fund’s investment objective." In contrast, my NordiCaps Top 40 Rated ETF proposal is a semi-active fund with quarterly rebalancing among all companies in Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Iceland, and Finland with market caps over $1 billion U.S. Dollars. Currently, 116 companies qualify for the index with only the top 40 rated stock selected as equally-weighted, active constituents. Just 14 of the top 40 rated and three of the top 10 rated companies in my NordiCaps ETF proposal are also included in the FTSE 30 Nordic Index, offering investors exposure to a wider variety of companies beyond the 30 largest and most liquid in Scandinavia. Both the top 40 rated and all 116 companies in my NordiCaps Region Index have fared better over the past year than the closest benchmark fund on the market, iShares Sweden ETF (EWD). Only the top 40 rated companies fared better than European benchmark ETFs such as iShares S&P Europe 350 (IEV), PowerShares Europe Small-Mid Caps (PWD), and Vanguard European Stock (VGK). Among the top 10 rated Nordic companies, only Novo Nordisk (NVO) and StatoilHydro (STO) have their stocks listed on U.S. exchanges while just six of the 116 companies maintain U.S. listings, which is another potential benefit of an ETF for Scandinavia by providing access to the region.
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A NordiCaps Region Index
This pick is about: iMSCI Sweden Index Fund (EWD)
| Rating: |
$21.92 (09/13/08)
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| Gain/Loss: |
-13.14%
in
449 days
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Top 10 Rated Nordic Companies Nordic Region: Stats for All 116 & Top 40 Companies Nordic Region: Breakdown by Country As evidence of commercial interest in developing an ETF for the Nordic region, Global X Management has recently filed for such a product, based on the FTSE Nordic 30 Index . The Global X filing specifies that, "The underlying index tracks the performance of the 30 largest and most liquid companies in Sweden, Denmark, Norway, and Finland. The Adviser uses a passive or indexing approach to try to achieve the Fund’s investment objective." In contrast, my NordiCaps Top 40 Rated ETF proposal is a semi-active fund with quarterly rebalancing among all companies in Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Iceland, and Finland with market caps over $1 billion U.S. Dollars. Currently, 116 companies qualify for the index with only the top 40 rated stock selected as equally-weighted, active constituents. Just 14 of the top 40 rated and three of the top 10 rated companies in my NordiCaps ETF proposal are also included in the FTSE 30 Nordic Index, offering investors exposure to a wider variety of companies beyond the 30 largest and most liquid in Scandinavia. Both the top 40 rated and all 116 companies in my NordiCaps Region Index have fared better over the past year than the closest benchmark fund on the market, iShares Sweden ETF (EWD). Only the top 40 rated companies fared better than European benchmark ETFs such as iShares S&P Europe 350 (IEV), PowerShares Europe Small-Mid Caps (PWD), and Vanguard European Stock (VGK). Among the top 10 rated Nordic companies, only Novo Nordisk (NVO) and StatoilHydro (STO) have their stocks listed on U.S. exchanges while just six of the 116 companies maintain U.S. listings, which is another potential benefit of an ETF for Scandinavia by providing access to the region.
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Cypress Bio is Poised for Major Move on Phase 3 Results and FDA Decision
This pick is about: Cypress Bioscience Inc. (CYPB)
| Rating: |
$6.43 (09/13/08)
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| Gain/Loss: |
-17.88%
in
449 days
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 Since I last wrote about Cypress Bioscience (CYPB) two months ago , the stock has moved lower with the Company now trading even closer to its net cash position of $4 per share with a closing price on Friday of $6.43 per share. The level of short interest has remained steady this year and is still high at 6.6 million shares compared to a float of about 32 million shares and average volume that is just over 300,000 shares per day. Most of the options action in Cypress Bio is focused on December (12/20/08 expiration) with an open interest in the 10.00 calls exceeding 16,500 contracts versus over 14,000 put contracts at the 5.00 strike. The upcoming FDA decision date [PDUFA] for milnacipran in the treatment of fibromyalgia [FM] is set for the end of October for Cypress Bio and its co-promotion partner on the drug, Forest Labs (FRX). More importantly, data is expected to be released during 4Q08 in another Phase 3 clinical trial of milnacipran for the same indication. Milnacipran has the advantage of over a decade of use in more than 50 countries as an anti-depressant outside of the U.S., resulting in over 20 million months of tracking data for these patients. This extensive drug database adds to over 2,000 patients studied by Cypress Bio in two previous Phase 3 trials and about 1,000 patients with FM enrolled in the pending Phase 3 trial. Given the well-known characteristics of milnacipran and its established mechanism of action as a dual serotonin [5-HT] – norepinephrine [NE] reuptake inhibitor [SNRI], the major issue for FDA approval is one of cardiovascular safety. Since milnacipran inhibits NE more strongly than 5-HT (a 3:1 ratio), it increases both blood pressure (2 – 3 points for diastolic and systolic on average) and heart rate (7 – 8 beats per minute on average). To address any potential safety concerns by the FDA, Cypress conducted a Phase 3 ambulatory blood pressure monitoring trial with 270 patients to measure the changes in blood pressure and heart rate at regular intervals throughout the day following 100 mg and 200 mg daily doses of the drug as a proactive step (i.e. the FDA did not request the additional data) in preparation for the NDA review by the agency. The previous two Phase 3 studies of milnacipran in the treatment of FM yielded mixed results with regard to achieving statistical significance for the pre-defined primary endpoints. In September 2005, a six-month trial with 888 patients failed to reach statistical significance for the pre-defined primary endpoint, but results were promising enough to warrant further study. In May 2007, Cypress Bio surged on statistically significant results for milnacipran in the treatment of FM in a three-month trial with 1,196 patients based on a composite responder approach which evaluates the improvement among patients across multiple symptoms to provide a more complete assessment of efficacy since the condition being treated involves a variety of symptoms such as widespread chronic pain, fatigue, sleep disturbances, and increased sensitivity to light touch. With Cypress Bio trading even closer to its $4 cash cushion, I plan to start accumulating shares in the coming weeks near its 52-week low around the $6.50 per share level in anticipation of the topline Phase 3 results expected 4Q08 and the FDA decision at the end of October. I think the Phase 3 results will be a positive catalyst for the stock, but would be surprised if milnacipran is approved without some sort of delay by the FDA. I think any delays will be minor and the drug could be approved by early 2009, but the pending Phase 3 trial results should be sufficient to move the stock back to double digits with positive results and no safety concerns. 
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September 12
Avistar Conference Call Scheduled for Wed-17-Sep
This pick is about: Avistar Communications Corp. (AVSR)
| Rating: |
$1.35 (09/12/08)
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| Gain/Loss: |
n/a
in
450 days
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 Avistar Communications (Nasdaq: AVSR), a provider of unified visual communications solutions, today announced that it will conduct a conference call at 1:00 pm Eastern time on September 17, 2008 to discuss the Company’s progress in relation to previously identified milestones, including the recently concluded technology licensing agreement with IBM Corporation. To participate in the conference call, please dial toll-free 877. 681. 3374. Investors may also access a live audio webcast of this conference call through the Investor Relations section of the Company’s website. Avistar creates technology that provides the missing critical element in unified communications: bringing people in organizations face-to-face, through enhanced communications, for true collaboration anytime, anyplace. Its latest product, Avistar C3, draws on over a decade of market experience to deliver a single-click desktop videoconferencing and collaboration experience that moves business communications into a new era. Available as a stand-alone solution, or integrated with existing unified communications software from other vendors, Avistar C3 users gain instant messaging-style ability to initiate video communications across and outside the enterprise. Patented bandwidth management enables thousands of users to access desktop videoconferencing, Voice over IP (VoIP) and streaming media, without requiring substantial new network investment or impairing network performance. Avistar’s desktop videoconferencing and collaboration installations are among the world’s largest, including more than 18,000 seats sold in more than 40 countries. Clients report as much as a 20 percent reduction in travel expense and carbon emissions, increases in productivity, and immeasurably improved relationship building within their organizations, as well as with suppliers and customers. Avistar holds a portfolio of 83 patents for inventions in video and network technology and licenses IP to videoconferencing, rich-media services, public networking and related industries. Current licensees include IBM Corporation, Sony Corporation, Sony Computer Entertainment Inc. (SCEI), Polycom, Inc., Tandberg ASA, Radvision Ltd. LifeSize Communications, Inc., and Emblaze-VCON. Press/Investor Contact: Bob Habig Avistar Communications Corp. +1 650.525.3310
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eWeek Review of Etelos PAAS Offerings
This pick is about: Etelos Inc. (ETLOE)
| Rating: |
$4.0 (09/12/08)
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| Gain/Loss: |
n/a
in
450 days
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 Unlike rivals such as Amazon.com (AMZN), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Google (GOOG), Etelos (OTCBB: ETLO) is offering developers a way to move their LAMP-based software to the cloud with little modification needed. Etelos also has services for helping developers sell, license and scale Web applications. Platform-as-a-service providers [PAAS], such as Salesforce.com, Amazon.com and Google, offer developers a means of coding their applications and allowing a provider in the cloud to not only handle the details of hosting and scaling these works, but make them available for sale as well. Etelos is a PAAS provider with a familiar twist. Where other frameworks require developers to code parts of their applications to work with the cloud service in question, Etelos' development environments enable software makers to bring their standard LAMP (Linux, Apache, MySQL and PHP/Python/Perl)-type applications to the cloud with little or no modification required. What sets Etelos apart from a traditional LAMP hosting service, such as DreamHost, are the services that the firm wraps around LAMP for selling, managing licensing and accounting for scalability of Web applications. In addition, Etelos has some interesting services in the works (which I did not test) for sharing data between separate applications and for enabling applications to run offline. Based on the time I spent with Etelos' platform, I can suggest that companies or departments seeking no-hassle, flexible hosting of common open-source or built-in-house Web applications take a closer look at what Etelos has to offer. As a means of demonstrating its platform, Etelos sells on-demand versions of a few popular open-source Web applications, including MediaWiki, WordPress and Sugar CRM community edition. I opted to take Etelos' MediaWiki offering for a spin to get a feel for the platform and perhaps move a MediaWiki instance I currently host in our lab out into the cloud. Etelos' MediaWiki to Go, which is priced at $4.95 per month and includes 5GB of storage (additional storage costs 34 cents per gigabyte per month), was as easy to set up as its "on-demand" label would suggest. I created a user account at Etelos' Web site and selected the MediaWiki service from the firm's applications marketplace, and within a couple of minutes I received a welcome message in my e-mail with my new wiki site's address and log-on information.Among those details was a pointer to my own Etelos Development Environment, a Web-based console for accessing and editing the files and folders that comprised my MediaWiki installation, for administering my database instance and for accessing other Etelos functionality. My on-demand MediaWiki installation came with a PostgreSQL database, which I could administer with the popular Web-based phpPgAdmin tool. The folder that housed my project code was deployed by default in a Subversion repository, which kept track of my files' versions whether I edited them using the Web interface, the provided WebDAV (Web-based Distributed Authoring and Versioning) interface or a standard Subversion client on my local computer. Due to a bug, Ubuntu Linux annoyingly lacks support for SSL (Secure Sockets Layer) WebDAV folders right now, so I opted for a local Subversion client to manage my code. I checked out the remote files to my notebook computer using a Subversion client and set about making my modifications locally, before committing them back into my site hosted at Etelos. I ran into a software snag when I set out to install the Semantic MediaWiki extension on my Etelos-hosted instance, since the latest version of SMW does not support PostgreSQL. Since MySQL is the primary database for MediaWiki, and most deployments and development are tied to MySQL, MySQL would have been a better choice for the on-demand service. However, this incompatibility gave me a good reason to try the MySQL flavor of Etelos' developer kit—currently free to use. Spawning myself a developer kit account was as easy as ordering up the MediaWiki service had been, and my new developer kit greeted me with all the same access options and Web-based tools that came with the MediaWiki service. For a flash demo of Etelos' developer kit, go here. Part of the Etelos pitch is that LAMP applications install on the platform with little or no code changes, and this was certainly my experience installing MediaWiki. To install the application, I committed the MediaWiki code into my development account with Subversion, visited the Web address of my new account and set about configuring my new instance through the software's Web setup interface. I grabbed the database name, user name and password for my MySQL instance from the "info" tab of the EDE, and adjusted the permissions on MediaWiki's config directory to allow the setup script to do its work. From here, I was able to install my desired Semantic MediaWiki extension without issues. Review written by eWeek.com [link to article] Labs Executive Editor Jason Brooks [email link].
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September 11
Carbon Prices Withstand Commodity Downturn
This pick is about: Market Vectors Global Alternative Energy ETF (GEX)
| Rating: |
$43.18 (09/11/08)
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| Gain/Loss: |
-42.77%
in
451 days
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 During recent market turmoil and a meltdown in commodities , the Global Carbon ETN (GRN) has held up better than oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG), but fared slightly worse than the overall market as illustrated in the accompanying three-month chart. Key factors in the demand for carbon credits include overall power demand and the relationship between natural gas and coal prices since burning gas results in the release of less than half of the greenhouse emissions versus coal. Currently, the simplest way for power utilities to reduce greenhouse emissions is to convert from coal to gas. With the price of coal easing over the past few weeks, demand for more carbon credits resulted; although this effect was mitigated by a sharp decline in natural gas as well which has dropped even more than crude oil. Some notable movers in the Global Carbon Trading Index which have bucked the overall market downturn include Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE), Camco (London: CAO), and Trading Emissions (London: TRE). Camco has successfully completed several carbon credit auctions while Clean Energy Fuels has been rising on the prospect for using natural gas as a cleaner, alternative fuel for vehicles as part of The Pickens Energy Plan. Overall, the index is down by 3.3% in the last month, which is better than the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and other benchmark alternative energy funds such as PowerShares Clean Energy (PBW) and Market Vectors Alternative Energy (GEX). Since diverging from oil and natural gas in late July, the Global Carbon ETN has trended lower with other commodities but its downturn has not been as severe -- offering investors the potential for a new type of commodity that may prove to be partially correlated to energy commodities because of its unique characteristics as an economic incentive to curtail air pollution.
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Carbon Prices Withstand Commodity Downturn
This pick is about: PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy Portfolio (PBW)
| Rating: |
$16.55 (09/11/08)
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| Gain/Loss: |
-37.04%
in
451 days
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During recent market turmoil and a meltdown in commodities , the Global Carbon ETN (GRN) has held up better than oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG), but fared slightly worse than the overall market as illustrated in the accompanying three-month chart. Key factors in the demand for carbon credits include overall power demand and the relationship between natural gas and coal prices since burning gas results in the release of less than half of the greenhouse emissions versus coal. Currently, the simplest way for power utilities to reduce greenhouse emissions is to convert from coal to gas. With the price of coal easing over the past few weeks, demand for more carbon credits resulted; although this effect was mitigated by a sharp decline in natural gas as well which has dropped even more than crude oil. Some notable movers in the Global Carbon Trading Index which have bucked the overall market downturn include Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE), Camco (London: CAO), and Trading Emissions (London: TRE). Camco has successfully completed several carbon credit auctions while Clean Energy Fuels has been rising on the prospect for using natural gas as a cleaner, alternative fuel for vehicles as part of The Pickens Energy Plan. Overall, the index is down by 3.3% in the last month, which is better than the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and other benchmark alternative energy funds such as PowerShares Clean Energy (PBW) and Market Vectors Alternative Energy (GEX). Since diverging from oil and natural gas in late July, the Global Carbon ETN has trended lower with other commodities but its downturn has not been as severe -- offering investors the potential for a new type of commodity that may prove to be partially correlated to energy commodities because of its unique characteristics as an economic incentive to curtail air pollution.
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Carbon Prices Withstand Commodity Downturn
This pick is about: iPath Global Carbon ETN (GRN)
| Rating: |
$44.01 (09/11/08)
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| Gain/Loss: |
-42.75%
in
451 days
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During recent market turmoil and a meltdown in commodities , the Global Carbon ETN (GRN) has held up better than oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG), but fared slightly worse than the overall market as illustrated in the accompanying three-month chart. Key factors in the demand for carbon credits include overall power demand and the relationship between natural gas and coal prices since burning gas results in the release of less than half of the greenhouse emissions versus coal. Currently, the simplest way for power utilities to reduce greenhouse emissions is to convert from coal to gas. With the price of coal easing over the past few weeks, demand for more carbon credits resulted; although this effect was mitigated by a sharp decline in natural gas as well which has dropped even more than crude oil. Some notable movers in the Global Carbon Trading Index which have bucked the overall market downturn include Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE), Camco (London: CAO), and Trading Emissions (London: TRE). Camco has successfully completed several carbon credit auctions while Clean Energy Fuels has been rising on the prospect for using natural gas as a cleaner, alternative fuel for vehicles as part of The Pickens Energy Plan. Overall, the index is down by 3.3% in the last month, which is better than the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and other benchmark alternative energy funds such as PowerShares Clean Energy (PBW) and Market Vectors Alternative Energy (GEX). Since diverging from oil and natural gas in late July, the Global Carbon ETN has trended lower with other commodities but its downturn has not been as severe -- offering investors the potential for a new type of commodity that may prove to be partially correlated to energy commodities because of its unique characteristics as an economic incentive to curtail air pollution.
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September 10
A Fiasco in Financials
This pick is about: Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG)
| Rating: |
$19.55 (09/10/08)
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| Gain/Loss: |
+71.97%
in
452 days
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Regional Bank Short Index: Stats & Benchmarks  Top 5 Companies by Largest 1-Year Stock Price Decline  After a brief, one-day rally in the financial sector following the Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) bailout on Sunday, companies such as Lehman Brothers (LEH) and Washington Mutual (WM) have lost over 47% and 57% of their market value, respectively, compared to a 5% loss in the Financial Sector SPDR (XLF) over the last five trading days. In contrast, the UltraShort Financials ProShares ETF (SKF) is up 6% in this time frame and offers traders who are bearish on the sector an alternative to shorting individual stocks.
The accompanying tables present an overview of a U.S. Regional Bank Short Index of 102 companies between market caps of $500 million to $20 billion. The two worst-performing stocks were both down over 80% in the past year, including Washington Mutual (WM) and National City (NCC). The 40 lowest-rated companies in the index posted a loss of 47.6% over the past year, which outpaces the losses of benchmark funds such as the KBW Regional Bank ETF (KRE) and the Regional Bank HOLDRs (RKH). As an inverse/short index, the 40 lowest rated stocks performed even better than the leveraged/inverse UltraShort Financial ProShares (SKF), which posted a gain of 32.7% over the past year. Regional banks are likely to continue struggling given the continued housing recession, rising unemployment, and other uncertainties facing the domestic economy and consumers.
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A Fiasco in Financials
This pick is about: UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF)
| Rating: |
$123.02 (09/10/08)
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| Gain/Loss: |
-79.55%
in
452 days
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Regional Bank Short Index: Stats & Benchmarks Top 5 Companies by Largest 1-Year Stock Price Decline After a brief, one-day rally in the financial sector following the Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) bailout on Sunday, companies such as Lehman Brothers (LEH) and Washington Mutual (WM) have lost over 47% and 57% of their market value, respectively, compared to a 5% loss in the Financial Sector SPDR (XLF) over the last five trading days. In contrast, the UltraShort Financials ProShares ETF (SKF) is up 6% in this time frame and offers traders who are bearish on the sector an alternative to shorting individual stocks.
The accompanying tables present an overview of a U.S. Regional Bank Short Index of 102 companies between market caps of $500 million to $20 billion. The two worst-performing stocks were both down over 80% in the past year, including Washington Mutual (WM) and National City (NCC). The 40 lowest-rated companies in the index posted a loss of 47.6% over the past year, which outpaces the losses of benchmark funds such as the KBW Regional Bank ETF (KRE) and the Regional Bank HOLDRs (RKH). As an inverse/short index, the 40 lowest rated stocks performed even better than the leveraged/inverse UltraShort Financial ProShares (SKF), which posted a gain of 32.7% over the past year. Regional banks are likely to continue struggling given the continued housing recession, rising unemployment, and other uncertainties facing the domestic economy and consumers.
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A Fiasco in Financials
This pick is about: Select Sector SPDRFinancial (XLF)
| Rating: |
$20.3 (09/10/08)
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| Gain/Loss: |
+29.26%
in
452 days
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Regional Bank Short Index: Stats & Benchmarks Top 5 Companies by Largest 1-Year Stock Price Decline After a brief, one-day rally in the financial sector following the Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) bailout on Sunday, companies such as Lehman Brothers (LEH) and Washington Mutual (WM) have lost over 47% and 57% of their market value, respectively, compared to a 5% loss in the Financial Sector SPDR (XLF) over the last five trading days. In contrast, the UltraShort Financials ProShares ETF (SKF) is up 6% in this time frame and offers traders who are bearish on the sector an alternative to shorting individual stocks.
The accompanying tables present an overview of a U.S. Regional Bank Short Index of 102 companies between market caps of $500 million to $20 billion. The two worst-performing stocks were both down over 80% in the past year, including Washington Mutual (WM) and National City (NCC). The 40 lowest-rated companies in the index posted a loss of 47.6% over the past year, which outpaces the losses of benchmark funds such as the KBW Regional Bank ETF (KRE) and the Regional Bank HOLDRs (RKH). As an inverse/short index, the 40 lowest rated stocks performed even better than the leveraged/inverse UltraShort Financial ProShares (SKF), which posted a gain of 32.7% over the past year. Regional banks are likely to continue struggling given the continued housing recession, rising unemployment, and other uncertainties facing the domestic economy and consumers.
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A Mystery Bidder Emerges for ImClone Systems
This pick is about: iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology Index Fund (IBB)
| Rating: |
$82.7 (09/10/08)
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| Gain/Loss: |
-3.93%
in
452 days
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 ImClone Systems (IMCL) has rejected an unsolicited $60 per share bid from U.S. Erbitux marketing partner Bristol-Myers (BMY) made at the end of July and announced today that it has received an offer from an unidentified big pharma company for $70 per share in cash. ImClone has received the formal offer and will allow two weeks for the bidding company to conduct due diligence. ImClone Chairman and prominent activist investor Carl Icahn has been in talks with the CEO of the pharmaceutical company which made the new offer, representing a premium of over 10% from the closing price on Tuesday of $63.65 per share. While numerous big pharma companies could be potential bidders for ImClone, Pfizer (PFE) would be my best guess as the mystery buyer as such a deal would make more sense than the Bayer buyout rumor from yesterday given the larger size and need to break-up the German chemical group and drug maker versus a pure-play domestic biotech acquisition. Erbitux would add to Pfizer's cancer drug Sutent and others which recorded group sales of $2.6 billion last year. Such a deal would also bolster the pipeline of Pfizer in the area of oncology. Germany-based Merck KGaA (MKGAY) is another potential buyer of ImClone as the Company's European partner for Erbitux. During early trading today, shares of ImClone are trading near the new offer at $68.50 per share, which values the company at about $6 billion.
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September 09
Ride the Rails to Profits with Warren Buffett
This pick is about: iShares Dow Jones Transportation Average Index Fund (IYT)
| Rating: |
$89.2 (09/09/08)
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| Gain/Loss: |
-18.95%
in
453 days
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Global Railroad Index Statistics  Top 5 Companies by Market Cap  Railroad companies represent a compelling investment theme despite the run-up in the stock prices of major U.S. players in the industry such as Warren Buffett favorite Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI), which Berkshire Hathaway owns nearly 64 million shares for an 18% stake . Railroad companies have pricing power as increased demand for the fuel-efficient transport of energy and agricultural commodities is combined with limited near-term ability to increase rail transport capacity due to the labor and capital intensive nature of the business. As illustrated in the accompanying tables, the performance of the Global Railroad Index was driven primarily by the four domestic rail giants (Union Pacific, Burlington Northern, Norfolk Southern, and CSX), resulting in a 13.6% market cap-weighted gain for the 37-company index versus a slight loss of 0.6% on an equal-weight basis over the past year. The index includes companies over $200 million market caps which are involved in rail transport, infrastructure, and railcar/locomotive manufacturing.
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Ride the Rails to Profits with Warren Buffett
This pick is about: CSX Corp. (CSX)
| Rating: |
$58.69 (09/09/08)
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| Gain/Loss: |
-17.79%
in
453 days
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Global Railroad Index Statistics Top 5 Companies by Market Cap Railroad companies represent a compelling investment theme despite the run-up in the stock prices of major U.S. players in the industry such as Warren Buffett favorite Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI), which Berkshire Hathaway owns nearly 64 million shares for an 18% stake . Railroad companies have pricing power as increased demand for the fuel-efficient transport of energy and agricultural commodities is combined with limited near-term ability to increase rail transport capacity due to the labor and capital intensive nature of the business. As illustrated in the accompanying tables, the performance of the Global Railroad Index was driven primarily by the four domestic rail giants (Union Pacific, Burlington Northern, Norfolk Southern, and CSX), resulting in a 13.6% market cap-weighted gain for the 37-company index versus a slight loss of 0.6% on an equal-weight basis over the past year. The index includes companies over $200 million market caps which are involved in rail transport, infrastructure, and railcar/locomotive manufacturing.
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Ride the Rails to Profits with Warren Buffett
This pick is about: Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp (BNI)
| Rating: |
$102.06 (09/09/08)
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| Gain/Loss: |
-3.39%
in
453 days
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Global Railroad Index Statistics Top 5 Companies by Market Cap Railroad companies represent a compelling investment theme despite the run-up in the stock prices of major U.S. players in the industry such as Warren Buffett favorite Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI), which Berkshire Hathaway owns nearly 64 million shares for an 18% stake . Railroad companies have pricing power as increased demand for the fuel-efficient transport of energy and agricultural commodities is combined with limited near-term ability to increase rail transport capacity due to the labor and capital intensive nature of the business. As illustrated in the accompanying tables, the performance of the Global Railroad Index was driven primarily by the four domestic rail giants (Union Pacific, Burlington Northern, Norfolk Southern, and CSX), resulting in a 13.6% market cap-weighted gain for the 37-company index versus a slight loss of 0.6% on an equal-weight basis over the past year. The index includes companies over $200 million market caps which are involved in rail transport, infrastructure, and railcar/locomotive manufacturing.
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A Bayer Buyout by Pfizer?
This pick is about: iShares S&P Global Healthcare Sector Index Fund (IXJ)
| Rating: |
$53.26 (09/09/08)
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| Gain/Loss: |
-2.65%
in
453 days
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 Shares of German drug maker and chemical concern Bayer ( Germany: BAY ) were boosted by about 3% in early trading today on word that Pfizer (PFE) may be interested in acquiring the company for its prescription drug business and pipeline. Shares of Bayer are currently valued at a market cap of about $59 billion US Dollars, which is less than half of the $129 billion market value of Pfizer. Such a deal would likely involve a break-up of Bayer, since the Company derives 31% of its sales from pharmaceuticals, 13% from consumer healthcare, 22% from agricultural sciences, and 30% from chemicals. Since Pfizer sold its consumer healthcare division to Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), it would be most interested in Bayer's prescription drug business and pipeline ahead of expected generic competition for the world's best selling drug Lipitor in late 2011. Since I first wrote about Pfizer in mid-July, the shares have risen by about 10%, but are still trading close to multi-year lows with a dividend yield near 7%.
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A Bayer Buyout by Pfizer?
This pick is about: Pfizer Inc (PFE)
| Rating: |
$19.05 (09/09/08)
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| Gain/Loss: |
-2.15%
in
453 days
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Shares of German drug maker and chemical concern Bayer ( Germany: BAY ) were boosted by about 3% in early trading today on word that Pfizer (PFE) may be interested in acquiring the company for its prescription drug business and pipeline. Shares of Bayer are currently valued at a market cap of about $59 billion US Dollars, which is less than half of the $129 billion market value of Pfizer. Such a deal would likely involve a break-up of Bayer, since the Company derives 31% of its sales from pharmaceuticals, 13% from consumer healthcare, 22% from agricultural sciences, and 30% from chemicals. Since Pfizer sold its consumer healthcare division to Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), it would be most interested in Bayer's prescription drug business and pipeline ahead of expected generic competition for the world's best selling drug Lipitor in late 2011. Since I first wrote about Pfizer in mid-July, the shares have risen by about 10%, but are still trading close to multi-year lows with a dividend yield near 7%.
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September 08
Google is a Buy on Valuation
This pick is about: Google Inc (GOOG)
| Rating: |
$423.17001 (09/08/08)
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| Gain/Loss: |
+38.42%
in
454 days
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 Shares of Apple Tarnished Ahead of Tuesday Event : Apple (APPL) lost about 1.5% in Monday trading after being down by as much as 5% and up by 2.5% during the day ahead of a presentation on Tuesday which is expected to the announcement of a new iPod Nano in addition to details on iPhone sales. As illustrated in the accompanying three month chart, shares of Apple have fared worse than the Nasdaq Composite Index, but have fared better than smart phone competitor Research In Motion (RIMM) and tech bellwether Google (GOOG), which are both down over 20% over the past three months. Of the three tech titans, shares of Google may be the best value, trading at a forward PE below 20X and PEG under 0.8X as the stock trades very close to its 52-week low. Lehman Nears Sale of Neuberger Berman : CNBC is reporting that Lehman Brothers (LEH) is close to selling its investment management division, including its most prized asset in Neuberger Berman in an effort to raise capital to stem billions of losses. Lehman values Neuberger at $10 billion, which is about equal to the market cap of the entire company as of the close on Monday, but potential buyers are looking for a better price. Airlines and UAL Look to Regain Altitude : Shares of UAL (UAUA) and other airlines may get a relief rally on Tuesday, following a false bankruptcy rumor on Monday for the parent company of United Airlines which grounded its shares along with many others in the industry. Airlines could also get a boost if oil (USO) continues to decline on concerns of a global economic slowdown and a strengthening US Dollar (UUP).
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Airline Stocks Grounded on False UAL Bankruptcy Rumor
This pick is about: US Airways Group Inc. (LCC)
| Rating: |
$7.69 (09/08/08)
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| Gain/Loss: |
+47.20%
in
454 days
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Global Airline Index Statistics  Top 5 Companies by Market Cap  Top 5 Companies by 52-Week Stock Price Decline  Shares of UAL (UAUA) were briefly halted for trading and grounded earlier today on a re-posted article from six years ago by the Florida Sun Sentinel newspaper on its website which stated the parent company of United Airlines had declared bankruptcy. Only the date was changed in the article from 2002 when United Airlines entered bankruptcy, which the Company emerged from in 2006 in its current form as a public company. Jittery investors still sold off the shares of airline companies and UAL despite the false bankruptcy rumor, with the latter trading down by over 10% today on more than two times its average trading volume. The accompanying tables present an overview for a Global Airline Index of 51 companies with market caps over $200 million, which is down by over 30% over the past year on both an equal-weight and market cap-weight basis. Shares of UAL are among the biggest stock price decliners over the past year, losing nearly three-fourths of their market value, which is second only to US Airways (LCC). Airline industry leader Southwest (LUV) has fared much better than its peers over the past year with gain of about 6% through today.
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September 11
Avistar Signs Technology Licensing Deal with IBM
This pick is about: Avistar Communications Corp. (AVSR)
| Rating: |
$1.32 (09/11/08)
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| Closed: |
09/12/2008
@ $1.35
(+2.27%
in
1 day)
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Avistar Communications (AVSR) recently signed a technology and product licensing agreement with IBM, which is detailed in a SEC filing today [PDF link]. Terms of the five-year deal call for Avistar to incorporate its bandwidth management technology into future Lotus Unified Communications product offerings. Avistar will receive an upfront cash payment of $3 million within 60 days followed by two additional $1.5 million payments, which are non-refundable and based on scheduled deliveries by the Company to IBM. Avistar will also receive a 2% royalty rate on global net sales and maintenance revenue from existing customers of Lotus Unified Communications products which incorporate the Company's technology after an undisclosed, initial sales threshold is reached by IBM. Shares of Avistar are currently trading down by 1.6% today at $1.20 per share while IBM is up about 4% at $119 per share. However, over the past six months, shares of Avistar have gained over 20% while IBM and the Nasdaq Composite Index have remained nearly unchanged. Both companies intend to issue a formal press release about the deal within the next five business days. Avistar [website link] specializes in video communications technology which enables individuals and organizations to collaborate more effectively regardless of their location. Insiders also appear bullish on the prospects for Avistar, with over 167,000 shares purchased in the past six months at prices ranging from $0.82 - $1.13 per share.
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September 05
Etelos Newsletter is Back from Summer Vacation
This pick is about: Etelos Inc. (ETLOE)
| Rating: |
$4.0 (09/05/08)
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| Closed: |
09/12/2008
@ $4.0
(+0.00%
in
7 days)
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 The Etelos newsletter [PDF link] is back from its summer vacation. The Company has added dozens of new applications to the Etelos Martketplace ™ to help businesses succeed by focusing on providing applications that support your needs and keep your customers in the loop. Etelos has added online presentation tools, hosted conference calling services, a text messaging gateway, and many others to provide business users with the best applications designed to help improve their practices. Etelos is focused on providing a diverse set of Web applications that are easy to adopt and easy to use. Here are some of the newest: Loop Exchange : quick automation for your documents Dimdim : Quick and easy Web conferencing. MTP Hosted PBX : a feature-rich VoIP solution. Learn how you can take advantage of a scalable and affordable VoIP solution -- MTP Hosted PBX is a business-grade system using Voice Over Internet Protocol (VoIP) that provides your business with a reliable alternative to costly PBX, IP PBX or Centrex lines. This includes local phone service and long distance service, with phone numbers available throughout the US. The Service also provides SIP trunking for your existing PABX or your new VoIP PBX. Etelos uses the award-winning Broadsoft softswitch to deliver these services. IP trunking replaces traditional telephone trunk lines. Join MTP and Etelos for a discussion and demo of how to make the most out of VoIP technology. Webinar Details: On 9/16/08 at 1:00 PM (PDT) - Registration details coming soon.
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September 10
Avistar Inks Patent Licensing Deal with IBM
This pick is about: Avistar Communications Corp. (AVSR)
| Rating: |
$1.2 (09/10/08)
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| Closed: |
09/11/2008
@ $1.32
(+10.00%
in
17 hours)
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Avistar Communications (AVSR) recently signed a patent licensing agreement with IBM, which is detailed in a SEC filing today [PDF link]. Terms of the five-year deal call for Avistar to incorporate its bandwidth management technology into future Lotus Unified Communications product offerings. Avistar will receive an upfront cash payment of $3 million within 60 days followed by two additional $1.5 million payments, which are non-refundable and based on scheduled deliveries by the Company to IBM. Avistar will also receive a 2% royalty rate on global net sales and maintenance revenue from existing customers of Lotus Unified Communications products which incorporate the Company's technology after an undisclosed, initial sales threshold is reached by IBM. Shares of Avistar are currently trading down by 1.6% today at $1.20 per share while IBM is up about 4% at $119 per share. However, over the past six months, shares of Avistar have gained over 20% while IBM and the Nasdaq Composite Index have remained nearly unchanged. Both companies intend to issue a formal press release about the deal within the next five business days. Avistar [website link] specializes in video communications technology which enables individuals and organizations to collaborate more effectively regardless of their location.
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September 04
A Global AnimalBiz Index
This pick is about: iShares S&P Global Healthcare Sector Index Fund (IXJ)
| Rating: |
$52.86 (09/04/08)
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| Closed: |
09/09/2008
@ $53.26
(+0.76%
in
5 days)
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The accompanying tables present an overview of the market cap-weighted Global AnimalBiz Index, which includes 32 companies with market caps between $100 million to $10 billion US Dollars. The index excludes all big pharma and diversified healthcare giants which have animal health segments such as Schering-Plough (Intervet), Novartis, Pfizer, Merck + Sanofi-Aventis joint venture ( Merial ), Wyeth (Fort Dodge), and Eli Lilly (Elanco). These companies are excluded to make the index more leveraged to animal care as this segment typically represents only about 5% of their sales. The Global AnimalBiz Index has performed in-line with benchmark funds for the healthcare sector over the past year with a market cap weighted return of -8.1% and an equally-weighted return of -9.4% versus a -9.7% return for iShares S&P Global Healthcare (IXJ), -7.8% for the Healthcare Sector SPDR (XLV), and -16.5% for the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY). The Global AnimalBiz Index includes companies involved in animal breeding, animal feeds + nutrition, animal health distribution, animal vaccines, pet retailers, veterinary services, veterinary medicines + diagnostics. The worldwide market for animal healthcare (therapeutics + diagnostics, excluding bulk feed and nutrition products) is expected to reach just under $20 billion in 2008 based on statistics by BCC research, experiencing growth of 26% from a level of $15.6 billion in 2003. Animal healthcare is dominated by several large and mega-cap global pharmaceutical companies, which either have distinct operating divisions from acquisitions or joint ventures focused on this niche area of pet and livestock medicine. Compared to the market for their human counterparts, the animal healthcare industry generally experiences less competition and requires fewer resources in the form of time and money for drug development.
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September 05
Smokin' Performance for Global Tobacco Index
This pick is about: Altria Group Inc (MO)
| Rating: |
$21.0099 (09/05/08)
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| Closed: |
09/07/2008
@ $20.95
(-0.29%
in
2 days)
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Global Tobacco Index: Smokin' Performance  Top 5 Companies by 1-Year Stock Gain  Top 5 Companies by Market Cap  The tobacco industry is smokin' the overall market and benchmark funds over the past year thanks to news today that Altria (MO) is looking to buy smokeless tobacco company UST for about $10 billion and defensive buying by investors as economic uncertainties drag down the overall market the past few days. Another notable mover is Star Scientific (STSI), which has vaulted to gains of over 260% during the last year on a successful appeal for a patent infringement lawsuit against Reynolds American (RAI). The ruling opens the door for a possible legal settlement or the case will proceed to a trial. A total of 25 companies are included in the Global Tobacco Index profiled in the accompanying tables with companies valued over $200 million US Dollars. The Top 20 active companies are chosen by a rating system as equally-weighted components in the index. The Global Tobacco Index outpaced the S&P 500 ETF (SPY), along with the following benchmark funds: iShares Global Consumer Staples (KXI), Vanguard Consumer Staples (VDC), Consumer Staples Sector SPDR (XLP), and iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend (DVY). Only the Select Dividend ETF has a higher yield than the 4.1% average for the Global Tobacco Index, but DVY is down 23.9% over the past year which more than offsets its high 4.9% yield.
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September 02
This pick is about: HealthShares Inc. HealthShares Diagnostics ExchangeTraded Fund (HHD)
| Rating: |
$31.0 (09/02/08)
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| Closed: |
09/02/2008
@ $31.0
(+0.00%
in
2 minutes)
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More about Mike Havrilla
Avg exp holding time:
400.04 days
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Age:
30's
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Occupation:
Pharmacist & Index Developer
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Website:
www.etfrx.com
About Me:
ETFRx.com is your prescription for successful investing strategies in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) an
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ETFRx.com is your prescription for successful investing strategies in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and related products with free research tools and commentaries. I am a pharmacist and index developer for ETF Innovators who has been investing since August 1997 and freelance writing for investors since April 2007.
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Nordic Region: Stats for All 116 & Top 40 Companies 
Nordic Region: Breakdown by Country 
