"The economic crisis began in the housing sector and will likely end there," says Stephen Leeb. In his top-notch The Complete Investor he takes a contrary look at two homebuilders.
"Though my view may sound contrarian to a fault, a close look at the housing market, especially given recent government actions, suggests a recovery will happen sooner rather than later and be stronger rather than weaker.
"When home prices decline, buyers pull back, afraid of buying too soon. This leads to further declines and further b
Toll Brothers, Inc. engages in designing, building, marketing, and arranging finance for single-family detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities in the United States. It also involves in building, or converting existing rental apartment buildings into high-, mid-, and low-rise luxury homes. The company serves move-up, empty-nester, active-adult, age-qualified, and second-home buyers in 22 states. In addition, Toll Brothers engages in the land development, architectural, engineering, mortgage, title, landscaping, lumber distribution, house component assembly, and manufact...
With the 1st quarter earnings season almost over, it’s slim pickings with less than 100 companies set to announce their financial report cards for the week of June 2nd. We found 4 companies we believe will unveil bottom line numbers better or worse than Wall Street expects. Below we highlight a company we expect [...]
Some times in order to pin point when to buy you have to throw a few dollars at a stock. Paper trade till the cows come home. It just doesn't tune the mind like real money.
There are obvious reasons for the fall of Toll Brothers. Some will preach about the time to buy is when there is blood in the street. All BS crap. The fact that people will preach htat means the blood is not thick enough. If you want to know when to buy on the market bottem, you buy when the shareholders are too embaress to talk about their holdings.
The analyst were flat out wrong when they predicted the high
If you have been watching homebuilders of late, you'll notice a sharp disconnect between the headlines still coming out and the stock prices of many homebuilders. The move today is partly attributed to Sam Zell's interview on CNBC saying this spring should mark the bottom in housing. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders (AMEX: XHB) ETF shares are up 6.3% at $22.56 today, and its 52-week low is $15.22.
3/14 - "We have initiated coverage of the homebuilders with a 1-Positive sector rating. We have initiated with 1-Overweight ratings on D.R. Horton (DHI - price target of $18), Ryland (RYL - price target of $31), and Toll Brothers (TOL - price target of $27), with 2-Equal weight ratings on Centex (CTX - price target of $23), KB Home (KBH - price target of $24), Lennar (LEN - price target of $20), and Pulte (PHM - price target of $15), and a 3-Underweight rating on Hovnanian (HOV - price target of $8)."
"We expect homebuilding stocks to continue to be volatile for the next few months, as we ...
3/10 - "The real estate bottom is so far in the future it’s not even worth attempting a prediction...It simply takes time for people to recognize that even real estate markets can fluctuate on the down side.
In general, this will always result in a real estate market that lags the general economy. Thus, anyone who accepts the preceding statement as reality should easily recognize the ridiculousness of predicting a real estate bottom when we haven’t even experienced the recession yet!"
"The banks don’t have a clue what’s going on, and these insignificant write offs we have witnessed to dat...
3/15 - "...already weakened firms could face a credit crisis of their own as home prices continue to drop and the potential value of homes under construction face going on the market for a fraction of what they may have brought just a year ago.
Some of the large home building company stocks have lost over two-thirds of their value over the last year, and that may only be the beginning."
The followng are actual notes to the Fed meeting that everybody claims they traded one, yet the only statement in the news was "The Fed were hoping the markets would correct themselves" . A STATEMENT MADE 3 WEEKS AGO!!! Did they? Since this meeting the mother of all inflationary trends - ENERGY COSTS - has decline. In fact just yesterday the bottom fell out on Nateral Gas when in plunged 5%. The cost to make goods declines when plastics fall with the oil cost. The cost to truck goods declines with the fall of fuel. The cost to power and drive the factories fall with the fall of gas prices
The Toll (tol) news today of an 85% drop in earnings last quarter says it all: "Cancellations" at the high-end from a homebuilder that requires a "significant non-refundable down-payment" in markets where there is "excess housing supply." Suggests that even Toll's customers, high FICO scores, notwithstanding, were stretching and/or speculating in a market that was overheated.
But here's the dead giveaway on how bad it really is and why this mortgage/credit/markets thing is not yet over: Even though its customers tend to have lower loan-to-value ratios "and attractive credi
High levels of inventory and past housing cycles seem to indicate further downside this year. Actually, this downturn could prove to be one of the worst in history given the magnitude of housing activity in recent years. The next leg down could be triggered by skyrocketing foreclosures. Toll Brothers and most of the other builders will be forced to cut prices and write off assets.
Analysts expect '07 revenue to be down 11% from '05. Consider that we had peak houisng starts in '05 and very elevated prices, that the National Association of Realtors' affordability index has been plunging to an extent that won;t be cured by likely declines in mortgage rates... I can easily see TOL's revenue faling by more than 20% and EPS even further (as the company gives up some peak gross margin). Yes, I know the P/E looks low, but that doesn't mandate higher stock prices; it could be cured by lower EPS estimates.
Home Builders Take Another Knock
- To claim that home builders have had a tough year would be somewhat of an understatement. As evidence of this, released today was data on new home sal...
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About Toll Brothers Inc
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