Semtech Corp.  (SMTC) Trade Now »     Rate SMTC  -  Discuss SMTC  -  Add to Watch List        

If you follow my picks you know I am Bearish.  That being said I am finding some winners.  Be ready for the next market turn... find the winners!

SMTC appears to be a winner.  A beautiful trend reversal has been taking place since early Feb.  I like it all the way to 20 with some consolidation occurring around 17.  I have a stop at $13.35.

Semtech (SMTC) this afternoon posted revenue for its fiscal third quarter ended October 31 of $79.7 million, roughly in line with the Street consensus at $79.3 million. Non-GAAP profits were in line at 24 cents a share.

However, for Q4, the maker of analog and mixed-signal chips sees revenue of $64 million to $72 million, with non-GAAP EPS of 15-20 cents; that is short of the Street consensus at $76 million and 23 cents.

I can’t imagine you are surprised.

SMTC, which fell 36 cents, or 3.9% to $8.82 in the regular session, is down another 32 cents, or 3.6%, to $8.50, in late trading.

Citigroup’s Craig Ellis, who a month ago made wholesale estimate cuts for the semiconductor stocks he covers, today brought numbers down yet again.

“In the past three weeks, snowballing signs of product sales softness, freshly eroding macro indicators and dour field checks portend even greater near-term downside and a shallower mid-’09 recovery than our estimates reflect,” he wrote this morning. Ellis says he concluded that further estimate cuts and target reductions were needed.

He cut his ratings on Intersil (ISIL) to Hold from Buy, Fairchild (FCS) to Sell from Hold, and RF Micro Devices (

American Technology Research chip analyst Doug Freedman this morning tuned cautious on the semiconductor stocks, cutting ratings on nine stocks to Neutral from Buy, and trimming price targets. The downgraded stocks include Analog Devices (ADI), Cypress Semiconductor (CY), Intel (INTC), Linear (LLTC), Micron (MU), Maxim (MXIM), Nvidia (NVDA), Semtech (SMTC) and SanDisk (SNDK). He raised his rating on Micrel (MCRL) to Buy from Neutral.

Freedman now advises investors to underweight semiconductor stocks, as “a fresh round of material estimate cuts are required to capture macro factors that are

Shares of $930 million (market cap) analog chip maker Semtech (SMTC) are down slightly after the company this evening reported sales and profit for its fiscal 2Q slightly ahead of estimates but, because of a fire in one of its factories, forecast 3Q profit and sales below estimates. Revenue rose 16% to $78 million, compared to an average estimate of $77.8 million. Profit, excluding some costs, jumped from 18 cents per share to 25 cents, ahead of the average estimate of 23 cents. Because of a fire in its Reynosa, Mexico chip fab in July, which was disclosed on August 5, the company expects r