The accompanying table presents 70 FDA product approval decision dates along with the market caps and one year stock price change for the underlying companies. A note of caution for investors and traders is that the most common outcome from the FDA in the past year has been a delay in decisions due to understaffed conditions at the agency. However, several companies have pending decisions which are likely to occur either before year-end or early next year and will have a major impact on their stock prices.
The accompanying table presents a full FDA calendar of decision dates updated through today, which I will maintain at the bottom of my blog in place of the previous Global Carbon Trading Index. Click on the calendar image above or on my blog to view or download the PDF version of the FDA calendar, which I will also maintain at: www.geocities.com/mikehavrx/fdac.pdf .
Several key decisions are pending through the end of this month for the group of 14 big pharma companies I outlined yesterday, including Eli Lilly (L
The accompanying tables present an overview of the market cap-weighted Global AnimalBiz Index, which includes 32 companies with market caps between $100 million to $10 billion US Dollars. The index excludes all big pharma and diversified healthcare giants which have animal health segments such as Schering-Plough (Intervet), Novartis, Pfizer, Merck + Sanofi-Aventis joint venture ( Merial ), Wyeth (Fort Dodge), and Eli Lilly (Elanco). These companies are excluded to make the index more leveraged to animal care as this segment typically represents only about 5%
In a previous post, I spelled out why I am buying healthcare stocks for an Obama presidency. In that post, I promised to provide three stocks that would benefit from this fact. The first stock was Aetna (AET) and now I will discus the second stock in this series, Schering-Plough Corporation (SGP).
Schering-Plough Corporation discovers, develops, manufactures, and sells pharmaceuticals worldwide. It operates in three segments: Human Prescription Pharmaceuticals, Animal Health, and Consumer Health Care. Human Prescription Pharmaceuticals segment offers human pharmaceutical products in six therapeutic areas, including cardiovascular, central nervous system, immunology and infectious disease, oncology, respiratory, and women’s health. This segment sells its products through sales representatives to hospitals, managed care organizations, wholesale distributors, and retail pharmacists. Ani...
Excerpt from Raymond James strategist Jeffrey Saut's latest essay:
As for investment positions, while some of our recommendations havebeen stopped-out (read: sold), due to our “sell discipline” designed tomanage the downside risk, others have done just fine. One that did okayuntil last Friday’s earnings “hairball” is Microsoft (MSFT). Wehave often spoken about MSFT since hearing its story (see previousmissives) from a particularly prescient portfolio manager [PM] at ourMarch institutional conference. At the time the shares were changinghands around $28. If participants followed our strategy
3/31 - "Zetia/Vytorin Sales Estimates Reduced — We believe that today’s outcome will have a meaningfully negative impact on the prescribing habits in the US, and, to a lesser extent, in non-US markets. Consequently, our 2007-10E cholesterol franchise sales CAGR decreases to -3% (previously +4%) for WW sales and - 11% (previously -2%) for US sales."
"We believe the panel’s recommendation to shift the therapeutic focus away from Zetia creates a real need for viable alternatives in the cholesterol reduction market. This may potentially expand the opportunity for MRK’s Cordaptive, and mitigate...
3/31 - "While there may be a mild decrease in near-term prescriptions in the coming weeks due to a resurgence in press on the ENHANCE trial, we think Vytorin and Zetia prescriptions should stabilize near current levels for the remainder of the year. As a result, we making no changes to our Vytorin or Zetia estimates. We expect Schering-Plough shares to be able to recover in the coming weeks, once the final press resurgence is over, and reiterate our Buy rating."
"At $19.47 per share, Schering-Plough currently trades at roughly a 19.6% premium to the group on our 2008 EPS forecast of $1.43 ...
3/31 - "We are lowering our projections but continue to rate SGP Neutral given the step-down in the stock.
"We lowered our 2008E EPS from $1.46 to $1.33 and our 2009E EPS from $1.61 to $1.36. We reduced U.S. JV sales (Vytorin+Zetia) as follows: 2008E from $3.5B (-10% YOY) to $3.0B (-24% YOY) and 2009E from $3.5B (0% YOY) to $2.8B (- 5% YOY). We await prescription trend data and may revise these assumptions as 2008 evolves. We reduced ex-U.S. JV sales (Vytorin+Zetia) as follows: 2008E from $1.6B (24% YOY) to $1.5B (12% YOY) and 2009E from $1.8B (10% YOY) to $1.5B (0% YOY). We expect less im...
3/31 - "Deutsche Bank is lowering their tgt to $21.50 from $25.50 saying the ack of new insight from the ENHANCE results was no surprise, but the tone of the panel "discussion", NEJM commentary and ensuing media coverage was more negative than anticipated. Additional trauma for the JV franchise, with immediate volatility in Rx demand and declines in market share is the likely near term outcome in firm's view."
"Notablecalls: SGP is down 20% in pre mkt (trading at $15.80 as I write this). I've been buying around that level...Yes, sales and EPS will be hit but it's priced in here...I believe...
SGP trading at historially low P/E, and lower than industry P/E.
SGP made strong acquisitions to push up quarterly earnings through 2010, while industry competitors will be losing sales to generics and need to focus on shared revenue with generics.
SGP executives will push news and guidance to keep share price > $30/ share to drive up share price appreciation for SGP's Board of Directors most recently in December 2007, but also in May 2007. Stock price was trading $30.72 - $31.35 when the Board was most recently awarded shares.
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