Redwood Trust Inc.  (RWT) Trade Now »     Rate RWT  -  Discuss RWT  -  Add to Watch List        

So far I have written four “Short Ideas” for Seeking Alpha, and my track record has been stellar.

My article on Crystal River (CRZ) was submitted when the stock was around 3.5, and as I write it is now at 2.18, down nearly 40%. In it I predicted that the company would in Q2 write down its book value from $5.33 per share in Q1 to either 2.38 or 2.44 per share in Q2, depending on whether there was a second write down on a defaulted junior loan to a Portland condo development.

Introduction: Heavy Mortgage Backed Securities Exposure Will Lead To Big Declines

Redwood Trust (RWT) is a REIT-structured entity that makes leveraged investments in financial instruments that themselves are highly leveraged. It�s my candidate for the financial midcap stock most likely to lose 80% of its value in the next six months. Its portfolio is broadly similar to other mortgage REITs that have fallen more than 99% from their peaks to now, such as New Century Financial (NEWCQ) and Thornburg Mortgage (TMA). What has allowed RWT to not collapse 99% as several other mortgage finance