"Agricultural commodities have been hurt in the recent turmoil," says growth stock expert Stephen Leeb. In The Complete Investor he looks at Mosaic (NYSE: MOS). a world leader in fertilizers.
"Mosaic has been decimated in price despite reporting record earnings. The company is the world's second-biggest producer of fertilizer components and the leading producer of potash.
"It's also the largest maker of processed phosphates, which gives it a lot of leverage to the rapidly growing markets of
Mosaic leads the fertilizer field{in a good way}. Just a good combination of companies and timing seems right for them to take off. Potash and Agrium and a few others will do very well also with 2010 numbers improving with the inflation I feel coming.
Over the past week I have been watching for the commodity bounce to reach resistance and begin to fade. We are nearing that point in many commodity stocks. I will likely stay away from energy, as I do see more room to the upside for oil. This could boost energy stocks.
Steel, agriculture, copper, gold and silver related stocks all are close to good short entry points.
MOS is a good example of
I went short 400 shares of MOS at $109.11. I highlighted this stock in the blog last night as one of my favorite commidity related shorts. See my last post for the setup. My stop is around $115 with my initial target at $95. This is where I would take partial profits, move my stop up, and let the rest "ride".
I bought 300 shares of QLD this morning on weakness, at $77.55. I highlighted this
Commodities price drop does not reduce the consistently growing need for better food like beef and pork bellies, which require feed made from fertilizer, and the new found affordability from rising middle classes in emerging economies to buy beef when they only recently grew away from rice only diets. Fertilizer demand will continue to serve the need to solve the food crisis. Tradable bottom.
blah blah, there is panic in the air, Mosaic (MOS) said volume targets of potash would be hard to reach for 2009, end of the world - pricing power will go away, valleys of corn will spring up throughout the world, competing with wheat, and Kool Aid will rain down from the heavens - instead of making $14 in 2009 they might make $13.25 - growth will slow from 150% to 90% and the end of the story is afoot - please give me my pacifier. Mosaic beats by 24 cents but again, who cares - let's go get us some financials that only lost $3.27 instead of the anticipated $...
For long time readers of the blog you know the reasons we love fertilizer and especially the potash (high moat) and phosphate makers (quite high moat) the best. Mosaic (MOS) has been our top holding and winner for much of the life of the fund. [Top Fund Winners and Losers] We don't like nitrogen quite as much simply because in due time anything China can produce, they will overproduce - and unlike potash and phosphates which have some extreme limitations on inputs/sources, nitrogen is more of a chemical process that China can (eventually) reproduce in great quantities - although input cos...
Long time readers will know this is about the 678,211,121st (give or take) time I've cut back the fertilizer names as they break support at the 50 day moving average, only to reverse on me within days. [Jul 7: Cutting Some Fertilizer Exposure] I even wrote in that entry
Historically you want to buy them when they touch the 50 day moving average since they bounce, but with the market acting so poorly we could get some washout action.
So ONCE AGAIN - I am repeating the same pattern, and with egg on face buying back what I sold - luckily I sold right near support so we are paying almost the sam...
Wednesday saw the stock market register another data point of ignominious distinction: the S & P 500 entered bear market territory -- a drop of more than 20% from its October 2007 peak.
One would like to make a case for a rebound for the S&P 500 and the DJIA, but current economic fundamentals (unfortunately) make a stronger case for the opposite: sky high gasoline and oil prices, declining disposable income in several income groups, ...
Stocks discussed in the in-depth session of Jim Cramer’s Mad Money TV program, Wednesday June 18.
Gassing Up: XTO Energy (XTO), Southwestern Energy (SWN), El Paso (EP), Ultra Petroleum (UPL), Apache (APA), Anadarko (APC), Chesapeake Energy (CHK)
One mystery on The Street is that big oil names like Exxon have made only paltry gains while oil has risen from $100 to $130 in a heartbeat. Oil companies either are not able to drill more oil or were hedged on the prediction oil would go lower and lost, explained Cramer. But natural gas names, such as XTO Energy, Southwestern Energy, El Paso Ultra
With crude oil prices soaring, shares in coal and fertilizer companies have also been climbing for the past year. Barron's offers a survey of the momentum plays, pointing out some opportunities and risks when investing in coal and fertilizer stocks.
Talking about risks, Barron's underlines the fact that it can be difficult for investors to put their hard earned money into a stock that is already trading near its highs. But as they say, the trend is up unless proven otherwise, and we might take this into account when pic
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About Mosaic Company The
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The U.S. stock market's summer doldrums continue. 
With crude oil prices soaring, shares in coal and fertilizer companies have also been climbing for the past year. Barron's offers a 
