Intrepid Potash  (IPI)     Rate IPI  -  Discuss IPI  -  Add to Watch List        

We are adding to our negative positions into any strength. The Fertilizer sector is clearly broken - in our view and our medium and longer term signals are increasingly negative. We think that IPI will see the $30's sooner than later.

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Based on Monday morning's earnings report and some follow-up information from my analyst team (ahem - readers), we've come to the conclusion that Intrepid Potash (IPI)prices their fertilizer 70% by contract, 30% spot in each quarter. <!---->Forthe contracted portion, if last quarter is a representative sample,they priced the contracted portion with a 4 month lag. Assuming April 1'contract' pricing came in December 2007-January 2008, we should beginto see meaningful upside in Q2. Q3 (starting July 1) should price inMarch 2008 and the full effects of the rampant bull in potash pricingbe refle

The agriculture bull market is in full swing and the prospects for the industry keep growing stronger. Agriculture is entrenched in supporting the basic needs of humans and is vital to the sustainability of a growing population. In fact, 45% of the world's workers are employed in agriculture. Recently, prices for crops have skyrocketed as farmers produced less food last year than was consumed, and stockpiles have been drawn down to 30-year lows.

The primary demand driver has come from emerging markets including China and India as consumers emerge from poverty and move to a protein-rich die