The 30 lowest rated companies in the ETFI Global Auto Makers Index and short ETF proposal lost an astonishing 63.9% in market value over the past year, compared to a loss of 37% each for the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and the Consumer Discretionary Sector SPDR (XLY). The index includes companies with market caps over $150M U.S. Dollars which are active in the following business segments: auto/truck makers, motor sports/recreation – e.g. Polaris (PII), motorcycles – e.g. Harley Davidson (HOG), and recreational vehicles – e.g. Winnebago (WGO).
Harley-Davidson (HOG) reported Q2 EPS of $0.95 this morning, 19 cents better than estimates. Revenue for the quarter was $1.57 billion vs. consensus of $1.4 billion.
BusinessWeek Rankings Best Global Brands Best Global Brands 2007 #45 2006 #45 World's Most Innovative Companies World's Most Innovative Companies 2006 #64 Analysts' Recommendation: Hold 30 Days Ago: Hold Analysts' Target: $41 Analysts' Targets UBS Securities $37 Neutral Tuesday, July 08, 2008 RBC Capital Markets $42 Sector Perform Tuesday, January 22, 2008 Lehman Brothers $45 Underweight Friday, January 18, 2008 Harley-Davidson, Inc., through its subsidiaries, produces heavyweight motorcycles, as well as offers moto...
This is a true value dividend stock, motorcycles will be back in swing with the green trend. Harley will be back for sure, I see a solid base forming not much lower to go from here. Will be doing my HW on HOG for sure, once I confirm a bottom I may go long. 36 to 38$ would be nice but unnec. Support ~35 should hold, below $40 this is a buy.
In early March, I posed
the question "is $3.25 gas helping Harley Davidson?" Now that the price
is up to $3.50 and higher in most areas, there is more evidence
unfolding that it may be true.<!--more-->
In
the first post, it was an Illinois dealership reporting increases in
sales. Now we have both a California dealership and, even better, a Florida
insurance agency that insures motorcycles in 21 states, reporting the
same thing.
On Friday the United Steelworkers and International Association of
Machinists and Aerospace Workers, Local 2-209, is expected to approve a
4 year deal with Harley Davidson (HOG). Terms have not been disclosed.
3/28 - "It would be one thing if earnings were growing 12% per year, as they have for the last five years. In that case, investors could expect 15% annual returns. But I don’t think the growth will be even close to that rate, or to the 11% consensus growth estimate."
"Taking a free cash flow approach to valuation, Harley generated $556 million in free cash flow in 2007, for a 6.2% yield against the current market cap. That’s a nice yield, but I’ve seen quite a few names with similar or higher yields and more attractive growth prospects. In order to generate a double-digit free cash flow yi...
4/4 - "Many of the brightest minds in my circles feel the economy will not pick up significantly for another 18 months and that we will have fits and starts in between then and now. There does not appear to be any urgency to acquiring stocks that will be dependent on economic recovery to turn for the better. However, HOG might be one to dollar cost average into over time if you believe it will not turn into General Motors or fade like Levi Strauss."
"I have not heard even a whisper doubting its superior quality of management and they seem to have put any labor issues to rest as well. I tho...
4/7 - "A known devil is better than unknown angel: rather than searching for gems in nebulous international markets, it is wise to look for value stocks in the domestic market to preserve the capital from down sliding. Harley Davidson (HOG) is one of these great companies with sound fundamentals and decent upside potential once the dark clouds of recession pass."
"Harley Owners Group has more than a million members all over the world. The average Harley buyer is well educated and has a median income of $84,000, which is twice the median household income. Though the slowing economy impacts ...
4/7 - "There has been a flurry of posts flying around lately about Harley Davidson (HOG) and their status as a "discretionary" purchase. Now, while the choice to buy a motorcycle may be for some, riding a Harley is not necessarily. There is a huge segment of the Harley population that considers their cars their second mode of transportation."
"A Harley Davidson rider will never, ever, make the decision to NOT buy a Harley and instead hop on a Suzuki to "save a few bucks". That very fact means there is a very large limit to just how discretionary the bikes are."
"Let's not forget that this...
When last I looked at Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) in 2007 the stock was trading a lot higher. I argued at the time that there was value in this quality company and investors should take a look. Others liked the company, but wisely said there was plenty of time to wait because profits would be coming down with the slowing economy.
Some commented that HOG was over-priced in the high $40's even though it had come down from it's 52-week high of $66 per share. It was trading at a sizable 26% discoun
My latest column is up at RealMoney . Although it is cheap, I don’t think Harley Davidson (HOG) is cheap enough. In summary:
It would be one thing if earnings were growing 12% per year, as they have for the last five years. In that case, investors could expect 15% annual returns. But I don’t think the growth will be even close to that rate, or to the 11% consensus growth estimate.
If the company does manage to earn $3.94 in 2009, it will have finally regained the levels it earned in 2006, and would then have a five-year earnings compound annual growth rate ( CAGR ) o
Many high quality consumer discretionary stocks are beaten down to ridiculously low levels. Harley Davidson is one of the best brands in the world that helps the company generate 15+% return on invested capital (ROIC) year after year. Its low debt means it can ride out any recession, no matter how deep. The value of a high ROIC company with low debt is certainly higher than 11x earnings. Try closer to 20x. Great opportunity to pick up a great company at a bargain price.
Is it just me -- or is this there something about today's earnings warning from Harley Davidson (hog) that doesn't necessarily ring true? Either Harley is one of the few companies telling the truth as the ultimate canary in the coal mine for high-end, frivolous products or it's using this quarter to conveniently and smartly start unwinding the stuffing of its past. Or maybe, just maybe, it's a little of both! In warning that third quarter shipments and full year 2007 and 2008 earnings would be lower than expected -- while withdrawing guidance for 2009, altogether -- the company ci
Portfolio results thru 8/8/08
- Portfolio at www.updown.com - started 1/11/08
9.8% return includes dividends and commission.
Started socialpicks on 6/30. some stocks here are not in...
Stock update and watch list 7/29/08
- Due to difficulties understanding the socialpicks system regarding changing rating from buy to hold and thus resetting the performance, I wanted to sum...
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So, maybe it would seem 
When last I looked at 
