Remember all those times OPEC tried to tell us that they didn't want high oil prices and we didn't believe them? Well, they meant it. They knew that technology was available to crush oil demand but they hoped that the low price of oil would keep the technology buried. The cat's now out of the bag. The commodity run is over. The talking heads are trying to temper the recent selloff in oil by saying that it will settle around $100 a barrel but that is not what happens when a bubble bursts. Oil is headed back down to historical levels between $30-$50 a barrel. Consider the following evi
Bad market times are great times for stocks which bet against various indexes in the stock market, I have compiled a list of the stocks that do well when the index does not. If you have the ability to do a lay over chart you can see that the stocks listed below each index, they rely on that index doing badly, who says you cant make money in a bad market. <o:p> </o:p>
These stocks will produce as long as the bear market holds, my best guess is til about september. <o:p> </o:p>
Even in a bad market some days the market does well and these stocks drop in price, I ...
There is an increasing number of discussions and recommendations about being short or long oil. A number of innovative ETF vehicles have been springing up to provide ways of playing oil long or short, even leveraged in either direction. At the same time the usual suspects are out there encouraging individuals to try their hand in the futures market.
To be up-front, we are long (DUG) which is a leveraged short on a number of oil and gas related stocks. A fair number of people have come out and questioned this as an "investment." In the short-term, of course it is not. Nobody can be right i
Over the last ten years the S&P 500 has returned a meager 2.88%. Why? Because in the long run the market doesn’t like bubbles. We’re now in the third wave of bubble euphoria and we’re hearing the same underlying message that we heard during the first two, just in different terms. During the dot-com era we watched tech fly to P/E multiples of 200 and above. When fund mangers were questioned about investing in such companies back in 1999, they collectively responded by saying times had changed. Lofty valuations became the new norm-until they crashed that is. The Nasdaq (QQQQ) still isn’t even
Over the very long run commodities decline in inflation adjusted price. Oil is too expensive to be sustained at these levels despite all the stories you read.
Today the wheels are in motion to reduce consumption, increase supply and diversify energy input choices in the remaining hardwired places like transportation.
Some say that when a commodity represents a small portion of overall cost we are price insensitive. Again this is true in the short run but not the long run. As prices go very high it stimulates profit-making investments in alternatives which can offer equal ...
For the past several weeks, we have been adding to our position of UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) as we believe that the underling fundamentals for the Oil Sector are faltering. The fact that the price for oil is rising and DUG is rising continues to show that the thesis is solid. Here are some interesting points from economy.com:
Here is an e-mail I received today:
MS,
Why do you like DUG so much? It looks to me like you are trying to pick a top in oils, just like you are trying to pick a bottom in SSO. Don't fight the trend man. SSO is going lower and DUG is too.
Before I get to the DUG trade, let me reiterate that I am not picking a bottom in the S&P 500. I am only playing for a bounce while using tightly
Recently, many investors have begun to speculate that the bull run in crude oil prices has reached bubble-like proportions. Some folks are saying that "speculators" have driven the price of crude to unsustainable levels and a painful correction is just around the corner.
7/8 - "Recently, many investors have begun to speculate that the bull run in crude oil prices has reached bubble-like proportions. Some folks are saying that "speculators" have driven the price of crude to unsustainable levels and a painful correction is just around the corner...There's one sub-sector of the energy industry that would actually benefit big time from such an oil correction: Refiners."
"...profits at U.S. refinery operators plunged 98% in the first quarter because they were caught behind-the-curve on skyrocketing oil prices. Refiners have been raising prices to be sure. But t...
The ETF that tracks the US Energy Sector (AMEX:IYE) is starting to show signs that it may be ready for a real fall. As there has been a significant increase in the noise surrounding sky-high oil prices and regulators and politicians looking to increase oversight, they will surely end up trolling for a scapegoat.
(CLICK CHART FOR LARGER VERSION)
Will that cause some of the recent froth to be lifted from the energy stocks? Maybe. Take a look at the index and think about the timing potential for ETFs that short similar indicators/indicies such as the UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (AMEX:DUG) whi
SHORT OR ULTRA SHORT INVERSE Business: The Fund seeks daily investment results that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Index. exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA <o:p> </o:p>
Bad market times are great times for stocks which bet against varies indexes in the stock market, I have compiled a list of the stocks that do well when the index does not. If you have the ability to do a lay over chart you can see tha
U.S. crude futures tumbled sharply after news that China will raise gasoline and diesel prices.
China will boost retail gasoline and diesel prices by 1,000 yuan ($145.5) per tonne from Friday, the first increase in eight months, industry sources told Reuters.
EDIT: Readers emailing me this is about a 20% increase - so this puts China at around $3.00ish on gas so roughly 30% below America and "a lot more" below various European countri...
Taking Ultrashort Basic Materials (SMN) up to 4.1% of fund Taking Ultrashort Oil - Gas (DUG) up to 4.3% of fund
The China news might finally be the catalyst to break the trend - we'll see. This is a market (energy) trading more on emotion and momentum, rather than the underlying fundamentals at this stage of the move in my opinion. And when 1 commodity sells off the hedge funds sell off everything no matter the fundamentals. So I'll just increase these insurance policies (hedges).
So far the "insurance" policy in the Basic Materials has been a big loser for us
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