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In the last month oil has fallen from near $150/barrel to just under $118/barrel, about a 20% retracement. The talking heads on CNBC yesterday were celebrating this fact and talking up a much further drop in the price of crude.

Meanwhile, the past month was simply disastrous for those invested in oil and natural gas stocks (like yours truly). Money managers and analysts are now advising investors to jump into the financial and retail stocks and shun commodity investments like energy. Is the energy play over? What has fundamentally changed in the energy arena to substantiate the sell-off in

Wow, I go hiking and fly-fishing in the South San Juan Wilderness for four days and come back to this?! ConocoPhillips (COP) was at $88 when I departed and now that I am back in Wi-Fi space I log in to find it trading at $81 and change? What in the world happened? I figure oil must have dropped to $50/barrel or that natural gas must be trading at $5. Hmmm... nope, oil is at $130... natural gas at $10.60. Perhaps COP cut the dividend? Nope... no news of that either. The dividend is yielding over 2% and if history is any indication, more dividend rate increases are surely in the cards.

So, wh

My latest column is up at RealMoney.

With oil dictating everything in this market, I can’t understand why ConocoPhillips (COP) is trading at 7 times next year’s earnings.

It’s not like the earnings estimates are falling. 90 days ago, analysts expected the company to earn $10.43 a share this year and $10.59 next year. Today, the estimates are $12.41 and $13.44, respectively. The consensus five-year growth rate is just 1%, which would mean a drop back to $7.65 a share within five years. I just don’t see that happening, so there should be potential upside surprise to the growth estimates as well

Filed under: International markets, Newsletters, ConocoPhillips (COP), Commodities, Oil, Stocks to Buy

Leading advisor Jack Adamo, editor of Insiders Plus, reports that a Goldman Sachs analyst has chosen one of the stocks on his newsletter's buy list -- ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) -- as his top pick in the energy sector.

"There was an extremely interesting piece recently in Barron's by the oil analyst at Goldman Sachs who predicted $100 oil back in late 2004. We'd been buying energy stocks for almost a year at that point, but, although I expected oil prices to rise, I had no idea they'd go thi

Filed under: Forecasts, Newsletters, ConocoPhillips (COP), Economic data, Oil, Stocks to Buy

Barron's magazine interviews highly-followed Goldman oil strategist Arjun Murti, who predicted the current oil "super spike" in 2004. He sees the climb peaking somewhere between $150 and $200 -- which could mean $5.75 gasoline.<!---->

Murti dismisses the notion that speculation is driving oil prices to record highs. If so, he counters, why aren't we seeing supply growth?

Take your pick. Either one is going to make you money. Oil was up over $10 on Thursday and Friday, setting records for both its high price and its US dollar move. In response, the US stock market tanked on Friday and the S&P500 is now down 6.5% for the year.

Reports say US citizens' net worth fell in the first quarter for the second quarter in a row. Talk from Israel about bombing Iran didn't help. If this happens and Iran responds by bottling up the Straits of Hormuz, well then $200/barrel oil will look like a nice bargain and a very severe recession, if not depression, will begin. Of cour

Filed under: Exxon Mobil (XOM), Market matters, Chevron Corp (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), Oil, Stocks to Buy, Cramer on BloggingStocks

I've been investing in ConocoPhillips (COP) going back to when the price was below $60-per-share. Back then the PE ratio was around 9 and the forward PE was around 7.<!---->

The price of oil at that point was $50-a-barrel and natural gas was at $5 per MMbtu. Take a look at where the price of natural gas has gone since then:

Filed under: ConocoPhillips (COP), Oil, Stocks to Buy