The table presented above (click on the image for a full-screen view) represents my proposal for an inverse ETF tracking the 25 lowest-rated passenger airline companies from across the globe with market caps over $200 million. The airline industry has a history of bankruptcies and operating losses and currently faces skyrocketing fuel costs and economic uncertainties, resulting in less travel for pleasure and business. My short airline ETF utilizes a rating formula which factors in each company's market cap, revenues, and trailing 52-week stock price change in order to select
Analysts' Recommendation: Hold 30 Days Ago: Hold Analysts' Target: $9 Analysts' Targets Soleil Group $12 Hold Friday, June 20, 2008 Lehman Brothers $9 Equalweight Thursday, June 05, 2008 Credit Suisse $7 Outperformer Tuesday, March 11, 2008 AMR Corporation (AMR), through its subsidiaries, operates as a scheduled passenger airline in the United States. The company, through its principal subsidiary, American Airlines, Inc., provides scheduled jet service to approximately 170 destinations throughout North America, the Caribbean, Latin...
I have been watching in amazement while the price of crude strangles the world's economy at $139/bbl. There have been riots and strikes in Europe as gasoline and diesel approach $10/gal (U.S.). In the third world and developing countries, many people have to decide between driving or eating.
Crude is up 57% since February and doubled in a year. In early June it rose 13% in a single day. I haven't seen something move like this since the solar stocks in November, 2007 or the Nasdaq in March, 2000. But like those former parabolic critters in the rear view mirror, the current commodity
6/7 - "While financial stocks are a great way to hedge a portfolio of gold and silver stocks, I believe I have found another sector that can be used as a more efficient hedge...The inflationary effect of rising oil is positive for gold and silver investors, but negative for sectors like airlines where on average 1/3 of the cost of operating an airline is tied to the price of jet fuel...As speculation grows over the price of oil, airline stocks have come under pressure and have approached heavily oversold territory."
"The airline sector is very cyclical and prone to high volatility. Airline...
I've written previously about using financial stocks as a hedge against
the falling price of gold and silver equities.<!----> Gold and silver stocks
are currently rising over an unstable global financial climate, rising
inflation and a falling dollar. As the financial environment attempts
to stabilize, we have seen the recovery of many bank stocks and the
fall of most precious metal stocks.
While financial stocks are a great way to hedge a portfolio of goldand silver stocks, I believe I have found another sector that can beused as a more efficient hedge. When we look at creating hedges, Ibe
Recap of CNBC's Fast Money, Thursday May 22.
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Oil Backs Down: Exxon Mobil (XOM), Petrobras (PBR), PowerShares DB Commodity Index (DBC)
With oil heading back down to $130, Jeff Macke would not call a top in oil and thinks the commodity will resume its upward climb. Guy Adami thinks investors will be afraid of holding long positions in oil over the long weekend, and while he doesn’t see a large number of shorts, he expects selling. Tim Seymour observes U.S. consumption is down, there are internal problems with XOM and the chart is unstable. John Najarian says a top can be called whe
Recap of CNBC's Fast Money, Wednesday May 21.
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Oil Well Above $133
Jeff Macke said Wednesday was discouraging with less than hopeful news from the Fed and oil prices running amok on speculation rather than supply and demand. Guy Adami doesn’t think the correction is such a bad thing and would add to tech. Karen Finerman said she boosted her Citi position during the selloff. She said she will wait for a dip in retail before buying.
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Airline Stocks Grounded: AMR (AMR)
AMR dropped 24% on rising oil, and Guy Adami says airlines are so hated that they are bound to bounce at some
3/13 - "Jet Fuel has increased 24.2% in the last month and 67.9% in the last year, so it's time to short the industry and long the few stocks that will survive...JPMorgan analyst Jaime Baker cut his ratings on seven major airline stocks, blaming uncertainty over the outcome of the proposed Delta-Northwest Airlines combination and forecasting major losses amid fears of a recession."
"American Airlines parent AMR Corp., Northwest Airlines Corp., Alaska Air Group Inc., US Airways Group Inc. and United Airlines parent UAL Corp. were all downgraded from "Overweight" to "Underweight."...Baker al...
Firm is revising their estimates and price targets lower for $105/bbl oil and Morgan Stanley’s most up to date economic forecasts. Looking forward, as their Bull/Bear/Base summary highlights, they expect significant volatility in airline equities. However, contrary to the consensus view, the firm would not initiate short positions at current prices. In fact, they believe airline equities are poised for a relief rally in the near-term and suggest that nimble investors position themselves accordingly across legacy airlines.They are still not recommending the space to long-term holders, but ar...
Oil priced have dropped well off their highs. Furthermore, after reviewing the 2-month chart of AMR, we can see an obvious down trend. But in the last week, it appears that the stock has broken this trend.
There is a double bottom and what appears to be a new uptrend, confirmed by price support on heavy volume. I would guess that AMR will break-out soon, if fundamentals continue to improve with oil coming off it's highs.
If this is a true recovery phase, I expect a large amount of accumulation as we progress into Spring / Early Summer. This is a great stock with $5 billio...
Please find our reading of the technicals of this chart and many, many others at our public listing at stockcharts.com. You may use the following link to access the same:
BusinessWeek is reporting this evening that AMR is a possible buyout target of Goldman or British Airways. The expected deal is thought to be anywhere between 9.8 to 11.2 billion, making the shares of AMR valued anywhere from $46 to $52 a share. In response to this press release, the shares are trading sharply higher after the market to the level it has not seen in years. I expect that AMR shares will see multi-year high tomorrow when the market opens. (http://yahoo.reuters.com...) FilthyRich hive has initiated AMR into our core holding ideas last Nov at the price of around $32 a share. Sin...
Which sector will do best in 2008?
- The economy is going through difficult times. With the dollar weakening, Oil prices and Inflation skyrocketing which sector do you think is the best to
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