Changing BRIC for BRAC

"The currencies of countries rich in essential resources—oil and other fuels, metals, agricultural products—are in strong demand," says long-standing market expert Stephen Leeb.

The editor of The Complete Investor explains, "Brazil, Russia, Australia, and Canada are awash in natural resources. And in a world of growing shortages, these countries can't miss."

"The acronym 'BRIC—standing for Brazil, Russia, India, and China—is in vogue as shorthand for the emergence of the developing world.

"But we’re herewith proposing an emended version: 'BRAC'—standing for Brazil, Russia, Australia, and Canada.

"That’s because these four countries are the ones most brimming over with essential natural resource, with each one a net exporter of fuels and other natural products. In a world where resource shortages will only get worse, these countries will stand out from the pack.

"Don’t get us wrong. China and India remain the largest and fastest growing emerging economies and still face exceptional futures.

"But their major resources are cheap labor, which will become less cheap as their economies keep growing. Indeed, labor costs in these countries already have begun to rise relative to the rest of the world.

"Meanwhile, continued gains in commodities mean that Australia and Canada are gaining relative to the rest of the world. It’s hard to overstate just how important relative resource independence is in a world where resources are becoming ever more scarce and expensive.

"It means lower and more predictable costs, which translates into more growth and less inflation and, of course, into a rising currency. As the chart on p.1 shows, the currencies in all of the BRAC countries have been very strong.

"The currencies of China and India also should remain strong, because the true economic value of their economies is vastly understated by the dollar value of their GDPs.

"That is, there remains a big gap between the value of their economy in dollar terms and in terms of purchasing power. Still, with both countries facing rising inflation as resource costs rise, that gap will narrow somewhat, attenuating the currency uptrends.

"Clearly, other factors, such as politics and monetary and fiscal policies, also enter into whether a country is a good “buy.” But resource independence gives the authorities far more freedom in steering an economic course.

"The uptrends in the currencies and stock markets of the BRAC countries show that such increased leeway does indeed translate into good results, and we look for more of the same well into the future.

"For investors, the easiest way to gain a broad stake in BRAC countries is to buy an exchange-traded fund (ETF) linked to the major stocks that trade on a BRAC country’s public market.

"Each BRAC country has at least one ETF linked to a major stock exchange. Our favorites are iShares Brazil (NYSE: EWZ), iShares Russia (NYSE: RSX), iShares Australia (NYSE: EWA), and iShares Canada (NYSE: EWC).

"The fastest-growing countries, Russia and Brazil, have the lowest per-capita incomes and lowest per-capita energy consumption, while natural resources account for more of their stock markets.

"You might conclude these two countries therefore have the most potential. And that’s true—but with a caveat: as they develop, Russia and Brazil increasingly will need to draw on their own abundant resources for internal consumption to fuel their growth.

"By contrast, Australia and Canada, with higher incomes, have economies that are more mature, more service-oriented, and less reliant on their own natural resources. In fact, both will be able to grow while conserving resources,

"So it’s the old trade-off between risks and rewards. Brazil and Russia offer greater growth but with more risk.

"For Australia and Canada, their rich resource bases are more a matter of giving them protection in a commodities-short world, though they also do confer a big edge in sustaining growth and in keeping their currencies strong.

"The bottom line: all four ETFs should outperform the U.S. stock market in coming years. We advise taking positions in each."