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Five Phases to the Current Down Cycle |
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| Jul 09, 2008 01:39 PM UTC |
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Tracked Blogger
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7/8 - "Interesting analysis via David Rosenberg of Merrill Lynch:" 'There have been five phases to this current down-cycle – the first four are still in full swing, but it is the fifth that will very likely emerge as the most difficult stage of this economic downturn and bear market: The first wave was the end of the housing cycle when starts peaked and began to roll over...The second wave was the end of the home price bubble...The third wave was the end of the credit cycle...The fourth wave was the employment cycle, which peaked when payrolls did in December 2007...The fifth wave will be the end of the consumer cycle and the beginning of what may well prove to be the most significant recession since the mid-1970s...' 
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