First Solar On An Earnings Run

On June 11, I tried to make the case that the stock price of First Solar (FSLR) does not properly reflect the risks to its business and premium valuation. I also laid out the technical case that seemed to confirm short-term weakness. Yesterday (June 23), FSLR all but nullified my technically-based complaints with a nice one-day 7.4% jump in response to analyst upgrades. AmTech's price target of $450 was perhaps the most significant piece of news. Briefing.com supplies the following quote:

AmTech says that since becoming a public co, shares of FSLR are up on average 14% from the completion of any given quarter (the June 30, 2008 equivalent) through the report date. Excluding the reporting period for Q407 where shares were down 34% into the print due to general macro concerns and a difficult tech tape, shares of FSLR are up 24% on average into earnings reports. Outsid