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Airlines: A Great Gold and Silver Hedge |
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| Jun 09, 2008 11:45 AM UTC |
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Tracked Blogger
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6/7 - "While financial stocks are a great way to hedge a portfolio of gold and silver stocks, I believe I have found another sector that can be used as a more efficient hedge...The inflationary effect of rising oil is positive for gold and silver investors, but negative for sectors like airlines where on average 1/3 of the cost of operating an airline is tied to the price of jet fuel...As speculation grows over the price of oil, airline stocks have come under pressure and have approached heavily oversold territory." "The airline sector is very cyclical and prone to high volatility. Airlines have been so oversold, that any good news that comes out can cause the entire sector to rally. In the event that oil continues to rise we should see major positive performance from gold and silver stocks. This may be especially true going into the fall which is the traditional season high for physical gold and silver prices...With everything in favor of a falling dollar and an inflationary environment, I would be surprised not to see gold over $1000 again and silver over $20. My own price target for gold is $1100 and silver at $19 by the end of 2008. If the opposite trend were to occur and oil prices were to drop, easing inflation, I would expect airline stocks to experience a major rally due to the oversold conditions in the entire sector...In the short-term as you build a hedge using either financial stocks or airlines, there is likely additional room to drop. In the long-term the likelihood of a rally and making money from buying into today’s prices is higher than the probability of sustained lower prices. Looking at the historical charts for C, Citigroup Inc., UBS, UBS AG, AMR and CAL confirms this. The resulting rally out of all the recessions the U.S. has faced has resulted in higher prices." 
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 N/A risk: moderate |
Some Airlines Will Remain Profitable Regardless of Oil Prices
6/4 - "The airlines will make profits no matter what happens to the cost of fuel...Analysts have fallen into the trap of believing what the majority believes, but, as Keynes told us, in economic matters, the majority is always wrong. Once everyone believes oil prices are going higher, everyone acts in ways to prevent the prices from going higher."
"It is likely that GEO Metros will burn more...
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N/A risk: moderate |
Southwest: Still Smarter than All the Other Airlines
5/30 - "Every year, it's the same story. Southwest Airlines (LUV) hedges against high oil prices and the other airlines bemoan that they should have done the same (some also go bankrupt)...this year they hedged 70% of their fuel costs at $51/barrel."
"Many analysts see Southwest as the only airline likely to show a profit this year. Airline analyst Terry Trippler goes one step further and ha...
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N/A risk: moderate |
Credit Suisse: Airlines are in Trouble
5/27 - "Credit Suisse is reviewing its earnings estimates and ratings of airline stocks following the continued surge in crude prices. CS expects most of the industry to remain solvent."
'Contrary to stock performance, the airlines remain solvent, and we expect most will. [translation: Some will go bankrupt]...our contrarian view that the industry would be profitable with crude at $105 to $1...
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