Starting a Position in Intrepid Potash

Based on Monday morning's earnings report and some follow-up information from my analyst team (ahem - readers), we've come to the conclusion that Intrepid Potash (IPI)
prices their fertilizer 70% by contract, 30% spot in each quarter. <!---->For
the contracted portion, if last quarter is a representative sample,
they priced the contracted portion with a 4 month lag. Assuming April 1
'contract' pricing came in December 2007-January 2008, we should begin
to see meaningful upside in Q2. Q3 (starting July 1) should price in
March 2008 and the full effects of the rampant bull in potash pricing
be reflected by then. A risk of course is if potash pricing falls
in the back half of the year, something I would find as a very small
probability:

[Mar 27: Canpotex Potash Contracts Secured with India @ $625][Apr 2: Potash Makers Already Talking $750, up from $625][Apr 16: Chinese