5/16 - "Private-brand apparel retailer Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) continued to struggle mightily during its first quarter. I know this is sounding like a broken record, following the company's dreadful fourth quarter, but when consumers are feeling the pinch, retailers selling discretionary items such as apparel and home furnishings are bound to suffer."
"Total sales grew 1.5% on the strength of 123 more stores being open this year than last. But comparable-store sales slipped by 6.7% -- the third (and worst) quarter in a row of negative comps for the company...The company issued guidance in line with analyst expectations. Comps are expected to fall 3%-5% for the year, and earnings are forecasted to slip for the balance of 2008, but at an increasingly slower rate as the year progresses."
"At 14 times next year's earnings, Kohl's just isn't a great buy. Nibbling a few sha...
5/15 - "Retailer Macy's (NYSE: M) first fiscal quarter wasn't that bad, at least in terms of the analyst game...However, does this news excite me? Not necessarily...First, the overall top line declined almost 3%, coming in at $5.7 billion. Second, and perhaps even more telling, same-store sales were weak during the quarter, decreasing by 2.6%...And cash has been decreasing on the balance sheet. Oh, and gross margin went down, too."
"I'm not putting the company on my list of investment ideas right now, even though the stock closed up yesterday on the news...I think there might be better retail investments out there, such as Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) or Target (NYSE: TGT). Yes, the retailer may have strong associations with Donald Trump and Martha Stewart, but I will not be blinded by such celebrity value."
5/16 - "Nordstrom (JWN) reported first quarter earnings per share of $0.54, which matched our estimate, but was $0.05 ahead of consensus estimates. The upside was due to better-than-expected expense controls and share repurchases. Even so, the company issued guidance that was below its previous outlook."
"While we think JWN is one of the better ways to invest in retail, its stock is likely to be range bound for the next few quarters. As a result, we maintain our Hold rating and $39 target price, which is 14x our fiscal year 2008 EPS estimate...we think the stock will trade in-line with the overall market for the next six months."
5/16 - "We continue to be amazed that casual luxury teen retailer ANF trades at a discount valuation, despite the proven strength of its portfolio of concepts, ability to generate full price selling at premium price points, and consistently stable industry-high operating margins. At 11.4x our FY2009 EPS estimate of $6.66, ANF is trading at a substantial discount to the sector average of ~15.2x and its long term organic growth rate of 18%, which we think is undeserved."
"With ~$2.08 in cash per share, a $0.70 annual dividend,
a share repurchase program, as well as sales and earnings growth momentum, we think fair market value for ANF is ~14.6x our FY09 EPS estimate. This implies to us a fair value of about $97, representing a potential return of ~28% from current levels. Therefore, we reiterate our Buy rating."
"F1Q EPS grew 6.0% to $0.69 vs. $0.65 Y/Y, beating
consensus and our estimate of $0.66 by 3 cents...ANF reiterated F1H08 EPS guidance of $1.61 to $1.65 vs.
$1.53LY, which implies F2Q EPS guidance of $0.92 to $0.96,
in-line with consensus of $0.95, but below our estimate of
$0.98...We are not changing our FY08 estimate of $5.85. However, we are changing our quarterly 2008 estimates to $0.96, $1.49, and $2.71, down from $0.98, $1.50, and $2.71, respectively."
KSS targets a different niche than other retailers in its category. The only real question is whether or not there is enough interest and size in the non mall/strip located clothes retail store.
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