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Expect Only Short-Term Impact from Final ENHANCE Results, Reiterate Buy |
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| Mar 31, 2008 06:09 PM UTC |
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Tracked Blogger
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3/31 - "While there may be a mild decrease in near-term prescriptions in the coming weeks due to a resurgence in press on the ENHANCE trial, we think Vytorin and Zetia prescriptions should stabilize near current levels for the remainder of the year. As a result, we making no changes to our Vytorin or Zetia estimates. We expect Schering-Plough shares to be able to recover in the coming weeks, once the final press resurgence is over, and reiterate our Buy rating." "At $19.47 per share, Schering-Plough currently trades at roughly a 19.6% premium to the group on our 2008 EPS forecast of $1.43 and 28% below our price target of $25. Our price target is based on our 3D valuation framework, which looks at patent exposure, pipeline, and potential acquisitions versus its peers. Based on our model, we think Schering-Plough warrants a 51% premium to its peers, as it offers the best pipeline relative to its size, has the least patent exposure, and has the fastest current and projected EPS growth of the U.S. pharmaceutical companies. Using our 2008 earnings estimate of $1.43 and applying a 51% premium to the estimated 2007 group P/E of 11.4x, we arrive at our $25 price target." |
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