RIM, Apple May Gain from Motorola Split

3/28 - "Bank of America’s Scott Craig this morning wrote that Apple (AAPL) plans to build over 3 million current and 3G iPhones in the June quarter, and 8 million-plus in the September quarter. Craig says his current estimate that the company will sell 8 million iPhones in calendar 2008 - below the company’s 10 million unit target - is “starting to look too low.”"

"Earlier today, Dow Jones Newswires reported that Taiwan-based contract manufacturer Hon Hai had signed a deal to be the exclusive producer of the next generation iPhone."

3/28 - "Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) shares are trading higher today after the Commerce Department reported that disposable income and personal savings both rose in February. This has sent the market up this morning, as investors seem to be viewing the news as a sign that consumer spending could make a comeback."

"For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a May bull-put credit spread below the $105 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 7.5% return in just seven weeks as long as AAPL is above $105 at May expiration. Apple would have to fall by more than 27% before we would start to lose money."

3/28 - "In our latest ChangeWave Alliance survey, 77% of companies said they plan to buy RIM's BlackBerry in the next quarter, up three points from the previous survey in November...In comparison, 11% plan to buy Apple's iPhone, down three points from November. Clearly RIM is still the momentum leader in the near term."

"But Apple's move into the corporate world is the main story, and it could eventually impact RIM's market share...We think there is room for both companies in the smartphone market, especially as Palm and Motorola fall by the wayside."

3/26 - "In a note to clients, Citi analyst Jim Suva said he expects 67 cents per share in earnings on $1.8 billion in revenue -- lower than consensus expectations -- with the possibility of some upside.

He expects RIM to report having shipped 4.1 million units during the quarter and added 1.83 million net subscribers, which is also lower than consensus expectations."

"We expect RIM posts a modest beat, but importantly we expect the difference between shipped and activated units to begin to close, and believe this will be a meaningful catalyst for the stock," Suva said."

3/25 - "Palm Inc.'s (PALM) risk profile has increased significantly, says Canaccord Adams analyst Peter Misek, who adds he’s “not convinced” that the scheduled launch of its Windows-based mobile Treo device this summer, aimed at the enterprise smartphone market, will be enough to turn around the company’s fortunes."

"Mr. Miskek says the company’s risk profile has increased due to to its $74.4-million in illiquid auction rate securites that it is currently evaluating for impairment. These auction rate securities are now classified as cash, and any impairment charge could decrease cash balances by as much as 10% - 25%. Mr. Misek notes that Standard & Poor’s recently cut Palm’s credit rating to junk status."