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Capex Pillar Crumbling, GDP Forecasts Cut |
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| Mar 26, 2008 10:34 PM UTC |
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Tracked Blogger
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3/26 - "Red flags abounded in today’s durable goods report and warn that the business sector and strength of export demand may not bail the US economy out of a deep recession. Indeed, the collapse in capex orders raises the possibility that the weakness in the consumer and housing sectors is broadening out to the wider economy...We are now tracking just 0.7% QoQ annualized growth for 1Q capex and GDP at -0.2%. The weakness in capex orders will spill into 2Q as well so we have shaved capex investment to 0.2% from 0.7% and GDP remains at -0.3%." "A particularly worrisome aspect of today’s report was the jump in the inventory to sales I/S ratio to 1.54 months in February from 1.49 in January, to the highest since November 2001, on a relatively benign 0.5% MoM increase in inventories. The largest increases were in the electrical equipment and tech goods space, both export oriented sectors that should be performing well given the low dollar and purported strength in global demand." |
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