Are Durable Goods Orders Really So Bad? - William Trent (Stock Market Beat)

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Are Durable Goods Orders Really So Bad?
Mar 26, 2008 10:04 PM UTC

William Trent (Stock Market Beat)

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3/26 - "According to the Census Bureau, new orders for manufactured durable goods in February decreased $3.6 billion or 1.7 percent to $210.6 billion, the second consecutive monthly decrease following a 4.7 percent January decrease...However, suppose the news release had read “new orders for manufactured durable goods in February increased $8.4 billion or 4.3% to $208.1 billion compared to the year-ago period. This marks the third consecutive monthly increase, following year/year gains of 4.2% in both December and January.”

"Would the market have reacted more kindly to that rephrased release?"

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3/26 - "With orders weakening, it was only logical to see inventories rise and this month it rose at a rate of 0.5%. Although this data is volatile and pretty much unstable, analysts use it as a leading indicator for growth. In this case, the growth of the U.S., the world's largest economy, is as people predict and see. Nothing will change and the growth will continue to slowdown." "Even wit...

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Capex Pillar Crumbling, GDP Forecasts Cut

3/26 - "Red flags abounded in today’s durable goods report and warn that the business sector and strength of export demand may not bail the US economy out of a deep recession. Indeed, the collapse in capex orders raises the possibility that the weakness in the consumer and housing sectors is broadening out to the wider economy...We are now tracking just 0.7% QoQ annualized growth for 1Q capex a...

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