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Financials: Do or Die?
Mar 24, 2008 07:13 PM UTC

Notable Calls

Return	Risk
-43.98%	MID

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Profile & Performance

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Symbol	Sentiment	Start	Return	Closed
SCHW		03/24/08	-37.10%	--
GFIG		03/24/08	-83.51%	--
FHN		03/24/08	+51.09%	--
WFC		03/24/08	+4.61%	--
JPM		03/24/08	+27.84%	--

3/24 - "One of my smartest hedgie contacts just pinged me about the financials. According to him it seems to be getting pretty close to do or die for them:"

"Bottom line: while there are reasons to be less negative, the issues cited above suggest it's too early to put on a big upside bet in financials on a one- to two-quarter view, especially considering the 16% move we've already seen off the bottom. Expect continued volatility, although probably less than we've seen the past couple of quarters, with a decent likelihood of a near-term retrenchment after the big moves of the past few days even if we don't necessarily revisit the March 17th low on S&P 500 Financials."

"A couple of names on the long side that seem well suited to the current environment: SCHW and GFIG, both of which have the potential to deliver stronger than expected earnings, have very limited exposure to current problem areas and have lagged recently in share price terms. Names that look vulnerable on the downside: FHN, WFC and JPM, all of which have rallied sharply and valuations look extended versus the earnings outlook."

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Notable Calls:

-43.98%
risk: moderate

LEH

Oppenheimer Downgrades Lehman

3/24 - "Oppenheimer is out downgrading Lehman (NYSE:LEH) to Perform from Outperform based upon valuation in what they believe will be a protracted challenging capital markets environment. Since 1994, LEH's stock has traded as low as 0.6x book and as high as 2.2x book. Firm argues the low and high end of this range are clear outliers and that a 20% premium to book (which is where the stock curre...

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David Neubert (Seeking Alpha):

-60.05%
risk: moderate

LEH

MER

3 Reasons to be Bullish on the Investment Banks

3/23 - "Three factors will keep the cash register ringing for investment banks: 1. Demographics of baby-boomers saving for retirement. 2. The cheaper dollar, meaning that foreign firms will be on a shopping spree for U.S. companies, which will help M&A advisory. 3. Mortgage portfolios that have been marked to market. When liquidity returns to this market, portfolios of mortgages will...

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Zack Miller (BloggingStocks):

-11.90%
risk: moderate

Troubled Wall Street Firms Handing Out Pink Slips

3/24 - "According to Bloomberg, after the Internet bubble burst, 39,800 jobs at big banking firms were eliminated during the same period. The number climbed to 90,000 in the next two years, according to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association. While not everyone cries over millionaire bankers losing their jobs, there is certainly fallout that hurts everyone dependent on a h...

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