A Little More Understanding of Cycles

3/24 - "I definitely agree that there are plenty of opportunities, but here's my little quibble: the best opportunities are not during expansions or contractions, but during turning points."

"When the turning point comes, the opportunities will be abundant for those who have been out hustling."

3/24 - "Last Monday, I wrote on my blog that I thought it was likely we had seen the lows. Still, I wanted to see how the market fared on Tuesday, so I held off submitting my column. I never thought Tuesday would see such a huge rally, but it just reinforces my view."

"The technicals often do a better job of highlighting bottoms, even though you never truly know without hindsight...if you look back at any major market bottom in financial history, you will see that bearish sentiment always hits extreme levels. I saw that last Monday."

"I heard a lot of people saying that Monday's action didn't represent the type of capitulation lows that often mark significant bottoms. But the flip side of this argument is that when investors are braced for a cataclysmic session, and the market acts in the opposite fashion to expectations, maybe it is speaking just as loudly...I am not advocating a "V" bottom here, because I don't think the market will run away on the upside....But I think we will look back at the "Bear Stearns Bottom" as the lows for this period, even if they are tested soon."

3/23 - "The most important factors are bullish...These elements took the market from a death watch -- everyone guessing who would be the next "Bear" -- to a situation where Punk Ziegel's, Richard Bove, called bank stocks the buying opportunity of a generation."

"Wednesday's trading, down nearly 300 in the DJIA, was the disturbing factor for the week...We agree that there was nothing in the Fed action to generate this reversal, nor the strength in the dollar. There was also broad selling in stocks thought to be part of general hedge fund portfolios."

"The ETF Sector approach got caught in some of the selling related to dollar strength and basic materials. Despite this, the Wednesday readings continued to show nine of 44 sectors in the buy zone."