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3/5 - "There are a great deal of contradictions in the solar marketplace based on these scenarios. The first contradiction is a result of the huge expansion in the industry. Total capacity announced for nearly 100 panel manufacturers (thin film, monocrystalline, and polycrystalline), comes to 10.7 GW for 2008, while solar production is forecast to reach only 5.6 GW. That equates to a capacity utilization of only 52%. By way of comparison, capacity utilization in the semiconductor industry was 90% at the end of 2007." "The second contradiction is that if thin film solar continues at its same growth rate, in 2009 thin film will make up 17.8% of all solar power generation. That would leave a capacity of polysilicon exceeding demand by 17,000 metric tons, based on capacity expansions announced by the polysilicon manufacturers. With all that polysilicon capacity on hand, and thin film solar panels having such low efficiencies, why should thin film continue to increase?...the third contradiction: why such an increase in capacity by polysilicon manufacturers when it’s not needed?" "The fourth contradiction is why is there a thin film market in the first place? If efficiencies are so low, particularly in the amorphous thin film sector, why do we need them in the future? They served a purpose in the past few years because there wasn’t enough polysilicon around. But why in 2008 and beyond?...The fifth contradiction is the high equipment costs to make an amorphous silicon thin film panel." "The overcapacity should impact equipment and materials sales in the amorphous silicon thin film area...With the industry having twice the capacity as it needs, expect some rethinking on the part of investors."
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