My latest column is up at RealMoney . In it, I explain why I think the negative reaction to BMC Software’s (BMC) purchase of BladeLogic (BLOG) was overdone. In summary:
BladeLogic is growing nearly 40% annually, compared to just 5% expected growth in BMC next year. By my calculations, it increases BMC’s revenue growth rate by 180 basis points, which should have a significant impact on valuation models.
What’s more, I think there were signs that BMC’s growth was due to accelerate on its own. Deferred revenues had declined slightly over the past nine months, which can act as a drag on revenue growth in future periods. But license sales are up 13.5% so far this year, compared to total growth of less than 9%. Today’s license sales should increase future maintenance and service revenues.
Although the BladeLogic deal is expected to reduce BMC’s 2009 per share earnings by 10 or 11 cents, BMC’s estimates for 2009 had already risen by a similar amount. Effectively, the dilution from BladeLogic offsets BMC’s organic improvements for a year.
Meanwhile, BMC has generated more than $540 million in free cash flow over the last 12 months. Some of that is unsustainable, as it comes from collecting on financed receivables. However, I think the sustainable free cash flow is more than $400 million. That still amounts to a 6.5% free cash flow yield at a time when five-year Treasuries return a paltry 2.2%.
Alternatively, I think the stock can generate double-digit returns over the next few years by virtue of its growth, despite a potential reduction in valuation multiples.
Disclosure: William Trent has no financial position in the companies mentioned.
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