This pick really isn't a fair pick, but since the rules on this website are screwed up, I'm doing it anyway. Picking ABK as a short idea is cheating, because in reality it costs over 10% in borrowing costs to short it today-- this is because the prevailing consensus is that ABK will go bankrupt.
I agree, ABK is a goner, and the stupid U.S. government will nationalize all the losses from bond insurance, in order to prevent retirement funds and corporations from losing hundreds of billions of dollars. This will be similar to the RTC set-up from the S&L crisis. If you're not following my drift, just know that the government will pay for the mistakes of money managers by using our tax money, and since the US gov't is in the hole for over a trillion dollars (has no money), it will need to destroy the value of the dollar to pay for it; ie, invest in gold, silver, platinum, oil, peanuts, hogs, or anything that isn't paper money issued by a Federal government, domestic or foreign.
So ABK is a goner, and on this site, I don't even need to pay the 15% cost to borrow the shares.