The Spiderman effect is predictable and you should buy before and sell on release. But this upcoming year there will be a new trick that gets added... not predictable at all because it has never happened with this stock (yet.)
What happens when a hotly anticipated movie comes out that Marvel owns *all* the income from? Even if the movie "tanks" and only brings in the cost of production, such a movie would prove that Marvel has the chops to increase it's income exponentially.
If the movie succeeds... Even modestly, they will be adding as much to the bottom line from the movie as if they had a Spiderman sized hit, and just like the income from the film, they will only have to share toy revenue with the producers of the toys, adding even more.
I think that Iron Man will become a new franchise, but not a huge one. His alcoholic character will not appeal to children the way that Spiderman does, but he will prove that even a medium sized hit will hit hard with Marvel's new model.
Time this all with Captain America coming in to save the day just as Bush leaves, a second coming of the Hulk and quite a few characters that *are* going to be appealing to kids and I think that this stock that is stuck in the low 20's will shoot past the 30's pretty easily.
Longer term (1-1.5 years)... Look for Sony and Fox to actually boost Marvel's success more by trying to milk the existing franchises of Spiderman, X-men and Fantastic Four to the ends of the earth. Expect Spiderman 4, 5 and 6, Silver Surfer, The Human Torch, Wolverine, The "original" X=men, Magneto, The "new" X-men and more to be on the screens as these theaters try and compete with the arsenal of superhero movies from the only studios that have them... Marvel and Warner Brothers.
Did you know that the new way to promote a movie is at "Comic Con?" What does that tell you about the future. :-)
The next couple of months will be the last chance that you have to load up on this stock at this price. After that, I see people waking up to this story once again.
Excelsior!
$22.85 (09/23/07)
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