Via blogs.marketwatch.com/greenberg:
Before you get excited about Target's (tgt) decision to sell its credit card receivables, with uplifting talk about using proceeds here's another way to think about it: What does it really mean?
If you look back, you'll note that Target's credit card receivables have been growing faster than sales. Not necessarily a good sign. Target says that's a result of a new program that zeros in on better-quality credits. But if this credit crunch has proved one thing, quality of credits (based on high FICO scores) doesn't necessarily mean people didn't get in over their heads. In fact, the rising receivables relative to sales could suggest some of those credits are turning to credit cards as a lender of last resort. "I think they're very late to the table," says one veteran of the banking industry with a steep background in asset-backed lending and credit cards -- who has since retired and is short Target. "Their credit trends are clearly turning. And the logical buyers -- Citi and JPMorganChase already have their hands full with other underperforming retail portfolios."
He continues: "I had to laugh that Target hired Goldman . Goldman was hired by H&R block to sell Option One and see how far they've gotten with that! Like Option One, I am afraid that by the time this deal gets close to closing more will bubble to the surface that ultimately cuts the price.
Finally, he says that as counterintuitive as this may sound, he believes Target management "has to be secretly thanking" activist Bill Ackman, who recently took a 9.6% rabble-rousing stake in the retailer. "While to the general public this looks like a response to his pressure, my own view is that this deal is the perfect distraction the Street needs so they overlook the facts that Target's core sales growth is beginning to slow down, credit quality in the portfolio is deteriorating and insider/director stock sales over the past three to six months have been enormous (almost 2.5 million shares)." No dummies, they.
$64.14 (09/15/07)
