Joy Global makes equipment for the mining industry, coal mining in particular. When commodity prices were soaring, so were Joy's shares - from $5 in January 2003 to $70 last April. But when prices began to fall, investors fled. As with many selloffs, this one was grossly overdone. Even with coal and copper prices now 25 percent off their midyear highs, analysts still expect Joy's earnings to grow 22 percent next year. "Yes, the price of coal has taken it on the chin," says portfolio manager and Joy fan John Buckingham of the Al Frank fund. "But the dropoff in its business didn't justify the huge decline in the stock price." As a result of the decline, the stock looks cheap - trading at a modest 15 times 2007 earnings.
CEO John Nils Hanson says Joy Global's earnings aren't nearly as sensitive to swings in coal and copper prices as Wall Street seems to believe. His customers don't decide to buy drills and electric mining shovels based on a six-month rise or fall in prices. "A copper mine can be a 40- or 50-year investment," he says.
Hanson considers China to be Joy's most promising market. China produces about two billion tons of coal annually, double the U.S. output, and the Energy Information Administration predicts China's demand for coal will triple by 2030. Roughly half of China's coal is mined without mechanized equipment (i.e., by hand, with picks and shovels). Joy expects revenue from China to hit $500 million by 2010, up from $200 million last year.
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