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7 pts

Opinion on  Melco PBL Entertainment Ltd. (MPEL)
Another Long Term Hold

Jun 20, 2007 09:48 PM GMT
Return Risk
-2.37% HIGH
Analyst

Fundamental Analysis  

As of June '07, this stock has taken a 50%+ beating since its initial IPO at the end of '06.  Even before this, I saw MPEL as a great opportunity to cheaply enter the gaming sector (as compared to the almost $100/share of established companies such as WYNN and LVS).  Now at a 50% IPO discount, this company not only presents a terrific opportunity for those interested in a speculative play, but for those also looking for a stock with a good deal.   It's half off guys!

So, this is why I was originally interested in MPEL and still am: 1) Macau, as of '06, has overtaken Las Vegas in gaming revenue with less than half of Las Vegas' casinoes.  2) MPEL is a new company, and is relatively cheaply priced compared to its competitors (but also comes with a few risks, such as rising construction costs and increased competition).  3) MPEL is playing the Macau gaming sector on three fronts, first it is targeting the regulars with its fashionable mocha clubs (they're like the starbucks of the gambling industry), the only of its kind.  Second, it's targeting the mass market segment with its large scale City of Dreams project, and is in solid partnerships with brand names such as Dragone Entertainment (developer of many of the Cirque Du Soleil shows) and Hard Rock Hotel, etc., and thirdly, is the ONLY company to offer a casino/resort/hotel that SOLELY caters to the highly profitable VIP segment.

In sum, MPEL seems like a solid company that has taken a severe thrashing in recent months because most of its projects are under construction.  The Crown however, has just opened.  It's mocha clubs have been open and are expanding.  Within a year and a half, its construction will be mostly complete, and if successful, you will NOT find this company stock for less than $50/share, much less what is now, at about $12/share.  Buy and hold, my friends.


MPEL:  This call was made on 06/20/07 @ $12.2
Rating:   Positive   $12.2 (06/20/07)
Gain/Loss:   -58.03% in 871 days


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Who voted on this idea?
Chamakkala N/A 06/28/2007



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