1. Too many US houses, commercial buildings, shopping centers. 2. Roads today are excellent compared to 1980 (for instance). 3. Cars for Clunkers will end up being a high point. 4. Chinese steel will come looking for export business; governments have a hard time preventing private businessmen from getting their hands on cheap imported steel, regardless of homegrown dumping complaints. It's like our pathetic efforts to stop drugs from crossing the Mex border-- a big waste of money to little effect. 5. Highly leveraged, so zero shots in steel are the norm. 6. Capex spend during the boom years was a mistake. 7. Mfg continues to go overseas. 8. MT is a rollup, always dangerous in tough times. (see Fortress) The biggest effect will be the loss of the consumer beginning Q4 2009, by Q4 2010 we might be at 50% of current puchasing in the U.S.
$38.78 (10/20/09)
