So the UK, Japanese, and US governments are all undergoing increased scrutiny for pumping dollars into financial companies. Not just by angry voters, but by ratings agencies now! This is as it should be, you can't reward poorly managed companies without repurcussions. By giving them money and keeping their stocks alive (even more suspect), you not only reward bad behavior, but punish those who didn't make the same mistakes. That's communism practically by definition. RBS is certainly giant, but not immune due to size. A move from 3.33 to > 12 is just a bit ridiculous for a bank that is 70% owned by the British Gov't! But worse, that owner is now evaluating selling its stake! "The Financial Times reported that Britain has begun taking soundings with sovereign wealth funds and other investors about selling stakes in its part-nationalised banks as it seeks to tap into a revival of stock market confidence in the financial sector. UK Financial Investments, which manages the government’s 43.5% stake in Lloyds Banking Group plc and 70% stake in Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc, could start the process of selling tranches in both banks within a year, according to people briefed on the organization's plans." source: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c8a69daa-43e3-11de-a9be-00144feabdc...
The funding is definitely going to boomerang on them as these billions in no way can be treated on par with equity holders by the market. But the point is that now that MTM problems are past the encouraging signs for fund raising and as you point out, the intention of the govts to sell might well work wonders..so why do you propose that their current earnings are not honestly reflected in the $12 price?
The funding is definitely going to boomerang on them as these billions in no way can be treated on par with equity holders by the market. But the point is that now that MTM problems are past, the encouraging signs for fund raising and as you point out, the intention of the govts to sell might well work wonders..so why do you propose that their current earnings are not honestly reflected in the $12 price?
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I propose that banks' "current" earnings don't reflect anything but hong kong phooey accounting. Take a look at the US bank earnings for Q1, they were all able to report huge profits after the accounting change permitted them to ignore balance sheet valuation issues. So i ask you in reverse, what makes you think the "current earnings" are real?
Soveriegn wealth funds now announcing sales of UK bank stocks, see Barclays today. Further evidence that it is much easier for a government to give away money, than it is for a government to sell for a profit. Injecting money into banks brings its own downfall, the shares themselves. But don't forget about the 2nd hidden downfall, the continued supply (too many banks) issue when borrowing demand will clearly be low for years.
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