The Russell 2000 has returned over 36% since March 9th, 2009. When you see such large returns in a little bit over a month you have to wonder how much further this rally can continue without retracing or even collapsing on itself? Rallies of such magnitude are not something you see in Bull markets, rather such events usually signal Bear rallies. Although we may have bottomed in March, it is unlikely that the Russell's gains are based on fundamental forces. In fact it is likely that many advanced investors piled into the Russell chasing high beta returns relative to the S&P500. Sooner or later the market will have to take a breather and with earnings coming out it is likely that investors have bought the rumor and will now sell the fact. For those of you who don't like shorting rallies I would suggest making a more market neutral bet by simutanously shorting IWM and going long SPY, but as always have your risk stop loss orders in to limit risk if the trade doesn't pan out.
$45.96 (04/14/09)
