Opinion on  National Oilwell Varco Inc (NOV)     Sector: Energy  >  Industry: Oil Well Services & Equipment
NOV

WILL POST MORE DETAILS A LITTLE LATER

GOT a pop this morning on china stimulous. Oil inventories out at 10:30 and a little tv hype the night before. They got probe going on now as to where they been selling oil. You can read rig closings going on baker hughes has been reporting what looks like about a 50% ratio. Rig opperations to expensive lower demand for oil less new rigs being built existing rigs being shut down everyone is trying to sop up excessive oil supply on the market. Contracts for rigs being canceled. Earnings per share based in part on 99$ per barl. Plus got help from grant prideco aquisition which was a great play on nov's part. I would not be a buyer until between $22 to $17 dollar level. Even then i woul be cautious. Obama impose big taxes on energy sector. The whole energy sector landscape is going to change. I don't think you will see these stocks react favorably until the inflation comes. The only way i see them mopping up the massive deficate and spending to come is to tax and inflate. I don't think the oil trade is ready yet.

Barrons has an article about the rigs that are being shut down. NOV itself was talking about baker hughes and the amount of rigs being shut down. Read NOV 10K they were talking about $99 per brl oil up to the end of 2008 nov reported 2nd qrtr begining of feb so they were showing numbers based on nov dec jan. High dollar oil. What will the next qrtrs look like based on oil between $20 and $45. These are only my oppinions and you should do your own homework and number crunching. I hope these thoughts are helpful and useful.

even though i think this stock is still going to trgts mentioned earlier. thi stock could also go higher they coul take it to its 200day before they really crash it I don't know but the trade in this stock is very difficult they deffinately hold the stock and push it around how they want so becareful trading this one. I am going to close this trade for now since there is profit here and I will follow it and maybe re enter the trade later. I always say don't be affraid to take profits.