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7 pts

Opinion on  Monogram Biosciences Inc. (MGRM)     Sector: Healthcare  >  Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs
Potential Upside with Trofile/Maraviroc

Apr 20, 2007 01:14 AM GMT
Return Risk
-7.69% HIGH
Sr. Analyst

Good news on Pfizer's Maraviroc at April 23 FDA review can be a potential upside for the stock.  MGRM's Trofile assay has been used to select patients in Maraviroc trial.


Update 04/25:

OK FDA panel recommended approval of Maraviroc on April 23 and recommended requiring Monogram's test to complement prescription.  Basically Monogram's CCR5Tropism assay is the only one in the market that can predict whether maraviroc or other drugs in the class (Merck has one in the pipeline) would work on a patient or not, based on the virus' drug resistance profile. 

Howver, now a day after the what I think was good news the stock actually went down with strange volatility pattern.  In two days, the stock went as high as 2.41 and as low as 1.93.   OK some finance professor will try to tell me maybe the good news has been priced in advance.  However, the good news supposedly reduced the risk of the stock and make the upside a little more guaranteed. 

I think fundamentally the stock is undervalued, I don't know by how much.  It will be clearer after next week's conference call to discuss the 1Q earnings, where it also planned to address the Maraviroc news and Trofile guidance.  Also some analysts have been setting target price in 2.5-3 range.  BUt still trying to figure out what happened the past 2 days.


MGRM:  This call was made on 04/20/07 @ $15.24
Rating:   Positive   $15.24 (04/20/07)
Closed:   05/10/2007 @ $9.78 (-35.83% in 20 days)


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kuntilanak previously rated MGRM
Negative +1.84% Cutting loss
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Positive +38.04% Potential upsode with Trofile/Maraviroc
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