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3 pts

Opinion on  Bank of America Corp (BAC)     Sector: Financial  >  Industry: Money Center Banks
The Shakeout in Regional Banks

Sep 30, 2008 10:09 AM UTC
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Return Risk
-4.73% MID
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The Shakeout in Regional Banks


The accompanying table presents the 25 lowest-rated stocks in my US-based Regional Banking Index. The index contains a total of 99 companies with market caps between $500 million to $20 billion which are classified as either regional banks or savings and loan companies. The ratings for each company are calculated quarterly based on a formula which considers the price-to-book ratio, the trailing 52-week stock price performance, and the percentage of total market caps represented by each company.

Since putting together the index at the end of May, many of the companies have either gone away (such as WaMu) or are on the verge of going away (Nat City). I expect the shakeout in the weak, smaller regional banks to continue, which benefits the following large and mega-cap banks: Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), JP Morgan (JPM), U.S. Bancorp (USB), and PNC Financial (PNC).


BAC:  This call was made on 09/30/08 @ $32.4
Rating:   Positive   $32.4 (09/30/08)
Gain/Loss:   -59.66% in 63 days


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Tom Caddoo   75%     1 point   commented 55 days ago reply

I agree with your analysis on the health and viability of the regional banks. Until the credit markets calm down and the use of the TARP facility recently enacted by the Treasury becomes fully realized, there will continue to be a lot of pressure on the stock prices of these firms.

I do not believe that the mega-cap banks, as you put it, are out of the woods yet either. When you have banks like Bank of America cutting their dividend and raising capital, it sure strikes a familiar tone to other banks that have recently not survived the current market insanity.


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