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12 pts

Opinion on  iShares FTSE/Xinhua China (FXI)     Sector: Financial  >  Industry: Misc. Financial Services
Beaten down asset of value

Sep 05, 2008 03:40 PM GMT
India_flag_background
Return Risk
-4.57% MID
Sr. Associate

Fundamental Analysis  

China is down 60 %.

Why buy ?
1.strong leadership which is ruthless -important in a commodity bull market
2.cash rich
3.excellent infrastructure -most of the cash intensive work was done in times of cheap money unlike India where infrastructure work is still picking up -most of the announced projects will be abandoned as time progresses as they become finacially un viable
4.ties to resource intensive nations-the commodity downturn is temporary -result of a strong dollar leading to the presidential elections,demand concerns.While this downturn is happening,the foundations for the next surge is being laid-new  mines are forced to close,alternative technology start ups fold and go under,hedge funds blow up,farmers go into debt after overproducing,in India they commit suicide-commodity markets are  violent and take no prisoners.
5.large domestic market






























































































































Update 09/05:

This pick is NOT intended as a trading position.There will be more pain as more export oriented factories go under but I have faith in the ability of the management to deal with troubles as they arise-I expect China to use its massive cash reserves to boost infrastructure spending and will manage a shift to boosting domestic consumption.India has the potential but lacks effective leadership thereby will be relegated to an also ran.At the risk of having my head on a platter,China will be one country where I would take the usual financial industry adivce of continous systematic regular investment into an index fund.Will China overtake America and take over the world -not really.They will manage to screw things up just like China but it will end up like China a major developed market.The rerating will be very profitable and will take years to occur.When books come up how China is going to rule the world and so and so forth,I intend to sell FXI and buy  the DOW maybe 10 years from now.


FXI:  This call was made on 09/05/08 @ $38.04
Rating:   Positive   $38.04 (09/05/08)
Gain/Loss:   +19.16% in 457 days
Target:   in > one year
Allocation:   0.5% of portfolio


Comments (1)

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Angelina Rose   N/A     1 point   commented 456 days ago reply

Given good information.

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Thomas George    9 %     1 point   commented 456 days ago reply

Thank you.
NB:sorry about the empty-my "enter" key on the keyboard was stuck which went unnoticed.


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