Downside Profit Expectation: "$2.5 to $3 per share, depending on where you short it.
It is likely that this stock will dip below the aforementioned downside target. However, I'll be conservative and simply be satisfied with the bulk of the short-term down swing, and leave some profit on the table. If you're a day trader, you can probably even capture that potential additional downside gain, but I am too lazy to bother. Not that I cannot day trade, as I can, often picking intra-day tops and bottoms, but it's an order of magnitude more effort.
To be fair, I also consulted the forecast for this stock provided by ForecastS.com, but the extra interpretation and the somewhat refined target price expectation are based on my own review of the price chart for the stock.
Anything is possible I guess. A strong rally this week has fogged the issue that FNM and FRE are still in a major crunch, and with the likes of Warren Buffet coming out publicly on CNBC and stating that he fully expects common stock holders to be wiped out I am bemused as to why this rally has even started. I would tend to agree that th Fannie and Freddie will drop starting Tuesday - as to the degree that you are seeing I would tend to hold off until later next month on that target...That will give Paulson a little more breathing room, nut he is still going to have to drop the hammer sooner rather than later.
The easiest win win is to support FRE,FNM common stock price to $10, $12. They will be able to finance themselves out of the woods and the wise people will make plenty rewards.
Please do just that to avoid economy getting more out of control and running a huge risk of foreign investors losing their confidence in investing our T bills
I think the government may bail out FNM shareholders, but less likely FRE.
Policy decisions can change overnight and we'll be the last to know (from the news). But I guess FRE and FNM shareholders will get some token residual value in the end, somewhere in the $2 to $4 range is my best estimate at this point, with FRE significantly less than FNM.
I don't think it is a cool idea for the government to bail out FNM & FRE and to even atempt to wipe out all share holders' investment. I trust our government will understand and figure out a extremely wise solution to this crisis. It will be too drastic and cost the country too much! Especially it will cost a huge loss of foreign investor confidence to invest in our TBill system. That is very dangerous to our nation. Especially, the Russian and Chinese, they can hardly take so much already. We are a nation of badly in debt, we need foreign confidence in servincing our debt. We need to resolve every crisis with wisdom. We should not go down any more! We need to figure out win win solutions for America the greatest. Like one great senitor said as a nation of wisdom, we need to understand, to get it in order to care for ourselves and the world correctly. FNM and FRE had done nothing drasticly wrong. They are all business men, human being like all of us. It is our system and us who failed and attempted to kill them. They were mandated to offer conforming loans and guidelines to home owners for this country. It have been great for many years and many more to come, should we have not mandated them to offer those risky 100%, 97% and 95% loans to create the housing bubble. We should also educate our next generations to save and to invest for at least 20%+ down for home purchase. Should we have a wisdom of Out Lawing all poision loans on time and stipulating a 5 year-20%-per-year-reducing to zero speculation tax on your home purchase with exceptions on this critically essential housing, there should not be housing speculation, but only true investment. It would have avoided all these stinging financial crisis that break our fellow American family and integrity. There would not be domestic and international recession all caused by us. It is not fair and rediculous to accuse a child of taking alcohol and drugs, when his parents keep alcohol and drugs at home all the time. All these endless crisis potentially can take our great nation to 2nd tier quicker than all of us would imagine and like to see. FNM and FRE is great models for our housing finance. We can not afford to tear it apart. We need to wake up to do better than the past. All we need is a few good men like Mr. Buffet, Mr. Gate and us in America to support their stock prices. Our new government shall provide them effective guidelines to reform themselves. They will be able to reform and to seek finance themselves out of the woods. They should provide a continuous sound financial system to American housing and investment to the world. We should want to see FNM,FRE slowly get back to normal path and go back to $50, $60 share price. Potentially, they can be my and yours 10 to 20 begger stocks, when the next economic recovery comes sooner rather than much later or even sliding to depression. I hope Mr. Buffet and Mr. Gate and a few good men can read this message. I am sure these Few Good Men in America will also be much richer, happier and more invincible soon. Let's hope our troubles will be behind us soon. It is wisdom versus pure greed and could-not-careless mandality. Please support FNM, FRE and pass my message along! Yours ever faithfully and sincerely!
Another alternative is to make the playing field more level. The key is information, knowledge and know-how.
The public has been at a disadvantage, in terms of competitiveness.
So, the individual investor needs more objective guidance, not hype, be it investment in stocks or real estate.
The middle and lower income classes are the ones that need good guidance the most. Otherwise, over time, their competitive disadvantage will accrue into big wealth gaps, versus the top tier.
Hopefully, the forecasts presented here will provide a different, and mostly correct, perspective. That should help stimulate more thinking and circumspection in the individual investor as he/she goes about deciding what to do with respect to a particular stock or sector or the entire market.
The playing field can hardly be more level. There are millions of powerful and hard salesmen who want to get rich in no time. It is our obssesion and majority of the naiive public just goes with the hype and get trapped. It is human nature and our so called freedom. It has to be the job of a wise government to regulate sufficiently within our constitutions to serve and to protect our nation. We can not create so called freedom for some to rip off the others. It is unwise to lift up rocks to crush our own feet repeatedly. How much can one nation stay strong after continuous mistakes, not getting it and being crushed continuously. How many more holes can we sink in and still we can guarantee to pay our debt or other will invest in our debt? One day, it will snap if we do not wake up and change.
The playing field can hardly be more level. There are millions of powerful and hard salesmen who want to get rich in no time. It is our obssesion and majority of the naiive public just goes with the hype and get trapped. It is human nature and our so called freedom. It has to be the job of a wise government to regulate sufficiently within our constitutions to serve and to protect our nation. We can not create so called freedom for some to rip off the others. It is unwise to lift up rocks to crush our own feet repeatedly. How much can one nation stay strong after continuous mistakes, not getting it and being crushed continuously. How many more holes can we sink in and still we can guarantee to pay our debt or other will invest in our debt? One day, it will snap if we do not wake up and change.
The playing field can hardly be more level. There are millions of powerful and hard salesmen who want to get rich in no time. It is our obssesion and majority of the naiive public just goes with the hype and get trapped. It is human nature and our so called freedom. It has to be the job of a wise government to regulate sufficiently within our constitutions to serve and to protect our nation. We can not create so called freedom for some to rip off the others. It is unwise to lift up rocks to crush our own feet repeatedly. How much can one nation stay strong after continuous mistakes, not getting it and being crushed continuously. How many more holes can we sink in and still we can guarantee to pay our debt or other will invest in our debt? One day, it will snap if we do not wake up and change.
I am sorry that I was new on these to have posted my last comments 3 times on this forum. I sincerely hope my last 2 comments will change the FNM,FRE short sellers to invest to the positive side and take this historical opportunity to do one heroic good thing and benefit all of us the our nation. One last point is no body not even our highest level can guarantee our TBill system will not choke up with the potential failure of FNM and FRE. I welcome to hear disagreed or agreed comments to my last 3 comments of "FRE, FNM should not head to $1 or $0"
Your idealism is admired. But if you know or expect a stock going down, it would be irresponsible to tell people to buy it, since that would lead to losses by the buyers. If you want to help someone, you tell him/her what will most likely to happen, so he/she can act accordingly. Be faithful to truth because it liberates and empowers. Honesty is the best policy.
As for short selling, it has its public benefits that I won't go into here, as it is too involved a subject to do justice in a few sentences.
Besides if a stock is going down, it will go down regardless of how many people you tell to buy. The most you could do is delay the inevitable but even that is impossible unless your message is heard by millions and even then only a tiny fraction will follow your advice (and be hurt financially as their "reward").
Let's say you throw money bills from a second-floor window down a busy street, against your room mate's advice not to do so. Your room mate then ran down to the street to pick up a few of the bills that you kept throwing down to passers by. Can you accuse your room mate of causing you your loss or contributing to it, even to a slight degree? Of course not! Why? Because even if your room mate did not pick up the several bills out of the many you threw down, they would have been picked up by someone else and be quickly gone and lost anyway. Now at least your room mate can buy you a lunch.
The same is true with short selling a stock going down sharply or to zero. Even if you and your friends don't sell it short, it will still go down sharply or to zero. The worse or worst thing you can do to anyone that you care about is to tell him/her to go against the major trend. He/she would be overwhelmed and wiped out before making an iota of difference, long before the stock continues its inexorable decline.
If you have a better understanding of the financial markets, you'll see that the above is all true.
I am on the good side of believng FNM and FRE will not and can not go down in the next 5 to 6 years because of the highly profitable models that they are in American home finance and no other entities can do all they do in a short time. It is not a solution to bail them out for that long of time also. 5 to 6 years are long enough for housing and economy to recover. 5 to 6 years are long enough for FRE and FNM going back to the healthy ways of home finance and back to $50, $60 stocks. It is not entirely their fault to be exposed to Subprime MBS which was the same mistake made by all major banks not only in US but all over the world. It was our fault not to be able to foresee and to regulate toxic loans 5, 6 years ago and put in place housing speculation tax correctly to ensure the toxic speculation was out of the housing sector. I also believe all of us can make and pick up more healthy money from FNM, FRE upside than to kill them from $4.50 to $0. If it happens, I believe home finance will be a total chaos, because of the lack of uniformity in mortgage finance. Our homes may be further cut 25 to 50% or more in value due to the economic depression that we might be heading to. Home finance has been very difficult already. If we do not support FNM, FRE, it will be just like picking up another rock to crush our american housing sector. That is the common sense I believe in.
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