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Opinion on  JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM)     Sector: Financial  >  Industry: Money Center Banks
Think we hit bottom? Think again!

Aug 27, 2008 11:54 PM GMT
Newsmonkey
Return Risk
-19.36% LOW
Sr. Associate

Thinking of investing in finacial stocks.  Consider Bil Gross's comments first.

Bond manager Bill Gross wants to spread the bailout wealth. Gross says in a commentary posted on the Pimco Web site Thursday that the government must “open up the balance sheet of the U.S. Treasury” to support Fannie Mae ( FNM ), Freddie Mac ( FRE ) and, in a new twist, “Mom and Pop on Main Street U.S.A.” as well.

Gross has previously said he believes the Treasury will have to assist Fannie and Freddie in any efforts to raise new capital. His Pimco Total Return bond fund has major positions in mortgage-backed bonds issued by the government-sponsored enterprises, so it’s no surprise that he sees it that way. But now he’s calling on Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to use federal funds to buy more housing-related assets, in the name of preventing asset-price deflation from spiraling out of control.

Gross writes that the government should be more aggressively issuing subsidized home loans and creating funds to buy distressed properties, to help inject cash into U.S. households and slow the plunge in home prices. He writes that federal assistance is required because the deleveraging sweeping the financial sector has moved from asset liquidiation to debt liquidation - a process, he writes, that “can turn a campfire into a forest fire, a mild asset bear market into a destructive financial tsunami.”

Gross argues that Paulson and other policymakers must overcome their unwillingness to offer relief to households, after a decade in which Americans went on a record spending spree using borrowed money. He says that regardless of the source of the problem, plunging asset prices will only become more intractable as time marches on.

“The bill for our collective speculative profligacy, obvious in the deflating asset markets, can be paid now or it can be paid later,” Gross wrote. “The tab will be less if paid up front, than if swept under a rug of moral umbrage intent on seeking retribution for any and all of those responsible.”


Update 09/18:

When considering weather bottoms are in or not you should first try to understand what is driving the madness. To put it simply the market is wringing the leverage out of the market. The problem with the financial stocks is that they run highly leveraged balance sheets. Since the model is to borrow short and invest long the absence of available credit is causing leveraged balance sheets to contract. Libor spreads have blown out meaning banks aren't lending to banks. The commercial paper market is frozen up so companies cannot roll their CP when it comes due. For companies that must roll CP they have an immediate and sometimes (AIG, LEH, BSC) contraction. How low can they go? The answer is zero because if you have for example a 20 billion equity cap but a 100 billion balance sheet that is short term financed and you can't roll your cp then you rapidly become illiquid. Lenders who are senior to the equity see their debt becoming impaired so they buy CDS and short equity to try to limit their exposure. Since the dollars on the debt side are so large in comparison to the equity the equity gets squished. So just because GS and AIG are fundamentally sound given a normal operating environment they aren't in an environment where credit is unavailable. This can and will get a lot worse. Don't be quick to jump in because it will be hard to tell who was dumber the person who lost the first 90% or the person who jumped in just in time to lose the last 10%. This is no time to be speculating in the equity of highly leveraged balance sheets.  This isn't a bottom it is the edge of the abyss.


JPM:  This call was made on 08/27/08 @ $37.66
Rating:   Negative   $37.66 (08/27/08)
Closed:   10/07/2008 @ $42.61 (-13.14% in 41 days)


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TheSUBWAY   70%     1 point   commented 460 days ago reply

We agree and are shorting the financials / banks again.


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