The table presented above (click on the image for a full-screen view) represents my proposal for an inverse ETF tracking the 25 lowest-rated passenger airline companies from across the globe with market caps over $200 million. The airline industry has a history of bankruptcies and operating losses and currently faces skyrocketing fuel costs and economic uncertainties, resulting in less travel for pleasure and business. My short airline ETF utilizes a rating formula which factors in each company's market cap, revenues, and trailing 52-week stock price change in order to select the 25 lowest rated companies for inclusion. The ETF is semi-active with quarterly rebalancing to recalculate the ratings and reselect the 25 lowest rated stocks in the passenger airline industry.
The statistics provided above are current through the end of May; so the results for the industry would be even worse today given the market downturn since that time. However, the 25 active companies illustrated above still managed a trailing 52-week loss of 58.5% with an average market cap of $1.3 billion. The three worst stocks were domestic airlines, including US Airways (NYSE: LCC) (down 88%), UAL (Nasdaq: UAUA) (down 80%), and AirTran (NYSE: AAI) (down 75%). Despite industry consolidation, it appears the airline industry stocks face a turbulent future with a high likelihood of many bankruptcies to reduce overcapacity in the industry. My short airline ETF proposal provides investors with a low-cost, diversified means of betting against the airline stocks without the need for margin accounts and borrowing shares (which may be difficult as many of the companies are heavily shorted).
$10.84 (08/08/08)
