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6 pts

Opinion on  Pengrowth Energy Trust Trust Units (PGH)     Sector: Energy  >  Industry: Oil & Gas Operations
Catching a Falling Knife

Aug 06, 2008 11:58 PM UTC
N633550764_761802_5264
Return Risk
-26.93% MID
Analyst

I just bought Pengrowth Energy Trust (PGH) for my personal portfolio. PGH has obviously been following the downward commodities trend. I know it is not wise to fight the tape or try to catch a falling knife but I just like PGH at this price. I like the following:
 
1.        It seems to be hated by everyone else right now.
2.       Believe it has been oversold for no other reason than the downward trend in commodities (oil and natural gas).
3.       A single hurricane or prediction of a cold winter will send oil/natural gas prices higher.
4.       August is typically/usually a good time to buy natural gas. Natural gas has been known to hit its lows in July. (I am also watching CHK)
5.       PGH has a yield of about %15 (.23 monthly dividend paid on the 15 th – get paid to wait)
6.       PGH just bought Accrete Energy Inc. which should yield some positive results in the near future. Through the purchase of Accrete, PGH will acquire reserves of approximately 8.4 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe), with associated production of approximately 1,900 boe per day (boe/d).
 
Anybody out there have any thoughts?
 
Pengrowth Energy Trust (the Trust) is a Canada-based closed-end investment trust. The purpose of the Trust is to directly and indirectly explore for, develop and hold interests in petroleum and natural gas properties, through investments in securities, royalty units, net profits interests and notes issued by subsidiaries of the Trust. The activities of Pengrowth Corporation (the Corporation) and its subsidiaries are financed by issuance of royalty units and interest bearing notes to the Trust and third party debt. The Trust owns all of the royalty units and 91% of the common shares of the Corporation. The Corporation directly and indirectly acquires, owns and manages working interests and royalty interests in oil and natural gas properties. The Trust owns all of the issued and outstanding shares of Esprit Exploration Ltd. The Trust and the Corporation are managed by Pengrowth Management Limited.


PGH:  This call was made on 08/06/08 @ $16.88
Rating:   Positive   $16.88 (08/06/08)
Gain/Loss:   -51.84% in 120 days


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