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18 pts

Opinion on  Orleans Homebuilders Inc (OHB)     Sector: Capital Goods  >  Industry: Construction Services
Bearish on OHB ...

Aug 04, 2008 03:47 PM UTC
Gekko
Return Risk
+5.07% MID
Sr. Associate

WCI just went under and I"m betting that these guys are next. They just don't have enough cash to make it through the night.


Update 08/30:

Orleans is based in PA and operates in 14 markets.  Their business has severely dropped off in the Midwest and Florida experiencing 50% and 70% drops respectively when it comes to new orders.   This quote is from the May 10Q :

We believe that overall economic conditions will remain difficult in the near term and these conditions may continue to have a negative impact on new orders and new order pricing, thereby further reducing revenues, gross margins and net income. We are responding to these unfavorable market conditions by attempting to maintain absorption levels through the use of sales incentives, reevaluating our individual land holdings, reducing our land expenditures and emphasizing cost reductions to adjust for lower levels of production. Further decreases in demand for our homes may require us to further increase the use of sales incentives.

  Take a look at the most recent balance sheet numbers.  They've got a lot of debt, but little cash.  They have 58.5 million in cash and about $114 million in current liabilities.  Accounts payable exceeds cash by a comfortable margin.  SG&A cost them 19 million last quarter.  They are going to have to unload some more land and raise cash in order to survive.  


Update 09/29:

  OHB has been given let off the hook by one of its creditors.  Back in May, the company received a waiver letter which "temporarily waived compliance with certain covenants contained in the Credit Facility generally from January 1, 2008 through and including September 15, 2008 (the "Waiver Period"), unless another event of default occurred or the Company failed to meet the revised minimum consolidated tangible net worth and leverage covenants set forth in the Waiver Letter. "  This has recently been extended until today, 9/29/2008.   If they can't renegotiate the credit facility, then they'll be in default. 


OHB:  This call was made on 08/04/08 @ $4.15
Rating:   Negative   $4.15 (08/04/08)
Closed:   11/24/2008 @ $1.87 (+54.94% in 112 days)


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