By
msivy@moneymail.com"> Michael Sivy , Money Magazine editor-at-large
July 28, 2008: 6:25 PM EDT
http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/28/pf/bluechips_growth.moneymag/... The future looks bright
Why would this key group be showing signs of life when the overall market is still suffering - in fact, the major stock indexes are technically in a bear market?
Several reasons. The most important is that their share prices reflect expectations of profit growth far into the future. So no matter how bad current problems appear, if investors grow more optimistic about earnings prospects three to five years out, growth stocks stand to benefit.
Better performance could reflect hopes that an economic upturn will occur soon - perhaps within the next six to nine months. Indeed, some experts think the worst of the economic downturn has passed.
Speaking in Boston in June, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said that even though the economy looks weak, the odds of a "substantial downturn" have diminished.
At today's depressed prices, many blue-chip growth stocks look quite attractive. And even if the economy isn't set to recover just yet, such stocks enjoy advantages in tough times.
Companies with strong balance sheets like these can borrow even when credit is tight. And their market strength helps them stay ahead of inflation more easily than competitors that have trouble raising prices. This may explain why Standard & Poor's projects that earnings for large-cap growth stocks will climb 13% this year, while profits for value stocks are forecast to rise just 2%.
Still, the key is to make sure you aren't overpaying. So I went through the Sivy 70 looking for shares with double-digit projected annual earnings growth and below-average price/earnings ratios (less than the S&P 500's 17.8 times 2009 estimated earnings).
I also looked for stocks that have beaten the S&P since March, as that's a sign the businesses have some kind of edge in today's tough economy. Based on those criteria, a few stocks look promising.
Transportation stocks perform best in a robust economy, but Burlington's ( BNI , Fortune 500 ) shares have soared more than 12% since March 10. Burlington still looks like the more attractive of the big rails, based on price.
$102.41 (07/30/08)
